Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[thx1139]

He never left...

Maybe call it he Quiet Quit, just wish he would truly be Quiet.

 

[EverettRuess]

Look at a population and income distribution map.

If by the heartland (in the intermountain west) you mean Utah, Idaho, Montana, AZ, NM, Colorado, NV good luck. Throw in eastern Wa., eastern Oregon and eastern Ca. Except for the cities where there are a concentration of green voters, you will pry the dirty diesel engines out of their cold dead hands.

 

[InDaClub]

Ignore ALL the FUD. Record sales for Model Y in Norway.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1605531580721659904

 

[JustMe]

Some acknowledgment. Perhaps the best you can get out of Musk before SH starts sue him into oblivion.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1605501874785751040

Well at least Elon said that this is a buying opportunity instead of the stock price is still too high

 

[wtlloyd]

She is a whacko in my opinion. I don’t see how anyone invests if they dig into her analysis on anything. She sunshine pumped palantir and that is really a consulting company pretending to be a software company that hemorrhages money and without Uncle Sam it is gone.

She is a Laffer disciple. When I saw that a couple years ago, I sold my ARKK

 

[NicoV]

In a previous post you spoke about Germany's plan for LNG, but I think the cited articles were from May. Are they implementing their plans?

The first German floating LNG terminal is now operational since a couple of days. The infrastructure was built with Teslageschwindigkeit: Germany’s first LNG terminal is open for business
The natural gas price has been dropping significantly and is now below 100 euro/MWh again.
It’s an example of the deflationary forces that Elon mentioned: from 350 euro this summer to below 100 euro.
The media now comments that Germany has enough gas reserves even if we get the worst winter in history. So most of the fear is out of the market.
The gas price still has lots of room to go down: we’re now at a price level similar to December 2021, but hopefully it goes down to the more historical price of about 25 euro/MWh.
This is good news for the European citizens purchasing power and euro inflation.

 

[Tachyon]

Well at least Elon said that this is a buying opportunity instead of the stock price is still too high

Every time he says “it’s a buying opportunity “ or “ buy the dip”- means he is fixing to sell more indiscriminately.

 

[Drax7]

Some acknowledgment. Perhaps the best you can get out of Musk before SH starts sue him into oblivion.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1605501874785751040

Which would imply tesla‘s p/d are positive, and input costs are declining,
hence COGS will be lower. and furthermore the stock is inexpensive.

Though he does foresee the risk of a recession given rate increases.

 

[wtlloyd]

If by the heartland (in the intermountain west) you mean Utah, Idaho, Montana, AZ, NM, Colorado, NV good luck. Throw in eastern Wa., eastern Oregon and eastern Ca. Except for the cities where there are a concentration of green voters, you will pry the dirty diesel engines out of their cold dead hands.

Don't agree. Homestead solar and battery, home vehicle charging is a Prepper's/Libertarian dream. Throw in diesel at $7/gal +, and you got a phase change.

 

[Buckminster]

George Hotz on space asked Musk about twitters current financial and Musks expectations. He said -3b for 2023 if nothing was done, he now sees cash flow break even but will be difficult. Read the thread for more details.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1605447200468631552

Recording for those that want to hear Elon. You might be pleased to hear a very measured Elon. First paragraph and Elon is discussing that Twitter advertisers need to see ROI.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Thailand & import taxes - Tesla will own the market (paraphrased).
"Model 3 Performance costs less than a Kona.. 3 Model Ys for the price of a fat e-Tron" - Byorn Nyland about Thailand

Charging networks improving, non-existent to good in 3 years.

Timestamped:- (also see around 43 minutes for Tesla price comparison, that Tesla is helping accelerate move to EV)

-

 

[Rotte]

People forget when it’s convenient. Bill Cosby could still sell out shows. People still use Facebook even though *uckb*rg is in charge. Nobody cares so long as it’s not in their face right now.

Your username is about the typical amount of time people can recall why they are so upset about Musk. It’s too esoteric to put into simple terms.

People forgive sexual predators and murderers when it’s convenient. Musk’s “Crimes” will fall off the headlines and be long forgotten echos in 2 months.

Only if he stopped tweetering.

 

[hacer]

...
Even stranger is your claim that Elon was "gifted" a lot of TSLA shares. Those shares were not a gift, they were compensation for hard work, and they were dependent upon hitting what most people thought were ridiculously lofty goals. Had Elon not been able to hit the goals, he wouldn't have received the shares.
...

I voted in favor of his stock option packages, but at the time I thought if those market cap goals were reached, they wouldn't become "unreached" when he was selling the granted shares. They really should have added some restrictions that the stock had to hold on to the market cap goals in order for him to be allowed to sell any of the shares granted based on the highest goals reached. In retrospect, the package didn't protect against pump-and-dump (I'm not accusing Elon of this, just that a rational compensation packaged should protect against it).

 

[Chenkers]

George Hotz on space asked Musk about twitters current financial and Musks expectations. He said -3b for 2023 if nothing was done, he now sees cash flow break even but will be difficult. Read the thread for more details.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1605447200468631552

https://twitter.com/x/status/1605448523419451392

The actual audio of Elon speaking makes it a lot clearer. Basically Elon is saying that he thinks that Twitter will be roughly cash flow neutral next year. This is a huge potential plus for us TSLA investors as it makes it far less likely that he will be selling further shares to prop up Twitter.

Unfortunately I've yet to see any of the media pick up on this statment yet??

Edit: Dow Jones have just published a short article with Elon's comments at 10am.

 

[Knightshade]

As a notable example, this is what happened with Twitter, which if I’m not mistaken was the biggest hostile takeover of all time and it was aided in part by Musk’s use of leverage with a margin loan against his TSLA stock.

Neither of those is correct, FWIW. There's been a number of much larger hostile takeovers,- a number in the 50-200 billion range vs 44 for the bird... Tesla at north of 400 is still "safe" for the moment, but your suggested $69 share price would get it a lot closer to "been done" territory... and the margin loans were removed from the bird deal before it was closed- though banks then wanted to bring them back after because they couldn't find anyone to dump the debt onto otherwise... (discussion of that prob. should go to the 'other' thread)

 

[EverettRuess]

Don't agree. Homestead solar and battery, home vehicle charging is a Prepper's/Libertarian dream. Throw in diesel at $7/gal +, and you got a phase change.

You would think so but I don't see it. Yet. I hope you are right.

 

[elasalle]

Growth is measure in yoy, not qoq. Accurate chart only if you are looking at qoq, misleading conclusion because yoy is missing. If you think hitting 1.3 million+ cars delivered for the year vs 935+k last year is "flat" growth then don't know what to tell you.

Right now there's a battle between Troy's "42%" yoy growth or Zac's just below 50% growth in deliveries. No one is saying flat growth.

When you add in higher asp and energy growth, teslas revenue growth should hit about 50% yoy no matter what.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1591963470060261376

Let's hit 449K which will be 1.45%, and round it to 1.5%

unforeseen events that happened this year - WAR, DISEASE, INFLATION ....
Tesla is winner anyway ..

 

[mongo]

I voted in favor of his stock option packages, but at the time I thought if those market cap goals were reached, they wouldn't become "unreached" when he was selling the granted shares. They really should have added some restrictions that the stock had to hold on to the market cap goals in order for him to be allowed to sell any of the shares granted based on the highest goals reached. In retrospect, the package didn't protect against pump-and-dump (I'm not accusing Elon of this, just that a rational compensation packaged should protect against it).

Counterpoint: there are still 5 years left for Elon to execute on his options. That's a lot of time/ risk. If he could be unvested from them at any point due to external (or internal) forces, then there is more incentive to execute ASAP which also means selling roughly half to cover exercise and taxes. That is not favorable to TSLA (0.5% dilution a year).

The five year post exercise holding period has a similar effect without the added pressure to execute. Further, the five year hold will soon extend past the end of the CEO plan execution deadline.

The only criteria currently reverted is the market cap which needs around $220 a share for full award. Each ~$20 below that would revert an additional tranche, so over half would still be vested.

 

[TrendTrader007]

This is simply an observation, not a stock price prediction. RSI has hit 30.5 which is only third time in Tesla history. It has been so over sold prior only twice for February 2016 and June 2019.

We are very very very close to the bottom according to this indicator, although there are no guarantees, and this is certainly not a financial advice, and I could be totally wrong

RSI second from top

 

[scubastevo80]

This is simply an observation, not a stock price prediction. RSI has hit 30.5 which is only third time in Tesla history. It has been so over sold prior only twice for February 2016 and June 2019.

We are very very very close to the bottom according to this indicator, although there are no guarantees, and this is certainly not a financial advice, and I could be totally wrong

RSI second from top

I bought this morning (sold some staples and utilities that have held up well this year) given the RSI numbers and based on the fact that I feel we're close to max fear/negativity. Youtubers, wall street analysts and this board are all at maximum distaste for the stock and Elon, and I feel we're nearing a bottom. There could be more volatility, but its hard to imagine it gets meaningfully worse given the fundamentals.