sdtslafan
Member
We should all get together for a come out of retirement party.
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I don't remember Jobs trashing Apple customers.Just recall what happened to Apple after their Board kicked out Jobs because he was too radical.
Since disagrees requires posts...
How cryptic is that??? Guesses?
Addendum:Thanks @Ogre for bringing this up. Here’s a review.
$7 EPS projections by Wall Street were in fact ridiculously wrong. That’s $2.33 post-split, but actual earnings have been $2.89 in just the first three quarters with probably at least $4.20 for the whole year. So despite the many unexpected major setbacks, EPS is still going to be about double what Wall Street analysts projected.
Deliveries
With deliveries tracking for approximately 1.35M this year, obviously my delivery estimate even for the bear case was a bit too high. If I remember correctly that was meant to be a 10th percentile case.
Main unanticipated reasons for the miss:
As @Artful Dodger pointed out here, we lost roughly 200k production from Shanghai from COVID Zero ramifications.
- Continued COVID Zero lunacy in China that in January I expected would not happen again
- Invasion of Ukraine
- Two extra months of government delays at Berlin in Q1
- Neglecting inventory buildup as a natural consequence of larger production volume
As for Berlin, it’s doing about 3.3k per week now. With addition of a third shift imminent, approximately 5k per week will come next month, or around 22k, and maybe a few extra thousand the month after that. Thus, the delay earlier this year probably cost us about 55-60k from Berlin by pushing back the ramp schedule.
Then the invasion of Ukraine caused all kinds of disruptions to the supply chain that probably cost a whole bunch more production, but it’s hard to estimate how much. We do know that severe supply shortages resulted in major production decreases for some of the other major automakers, so I wouldn’t be surprised if this cost Tesla about another 100k. For example, up through October, VW Group’s year-to-date global deliveries were down 10.6% vs 2021 (source). Toyota is cutting production as well and idling factories. The industry as a whole is selling as many as last year and much less than 2019.
Without these unanticipated setbacks, 2022 deliveries would’ve been approximately 1.6-1.7M, as expected.
I also didn’t think of the fact that inventory would naturally tend to rise in rough proportion to production rates. Even if inventory stayed at about one week of sales, we’re selling like 20k more cars per week than at the end of last year. I failed to account for this in January. Oops.
Finally, I had expected Berlin and Texas to ramp somewhat faster than they actually have. Thus far they’re going slower than Shanghai did and are slightly behind the 5k/week target for the end of year that Elon had guided for earlier this year. This was a minor impact though of about 20k units because the overall numbers are still small.
Revenue Per Vehicle
The YTD average is $55.2k per car as of Q3 (including ZEV credits). Q4 should drag this up to around $55.6k, per my current estimates.
My January estimates were too high mainly due to:
I still think we’ll hit the projected numbers but it’ll take until next year. I believe now that my timing was off by a couple quarters. For reference, right now I’m estimating $56.5k avg rev per veh for Q4 and slightly more than $60k by Q2/Q3 2023.
- Guessing wrong on how quickly all the price hikes would actually come into effect
- Predicting that high-priced initial Cybertruck deliveries would begin this year
- Strong $USD from crazy forex moves
- Underestimating how much of Shanghai’s growth would come from SR variants with LFP packs
I have no expertise in forex stuff and left that out of my model and still am doing so. Normally this doesn’t make much of a difference but 2022 had some extraordinary forex action thanks mostly to the Fed hawkishness and with simultaneous recessions in Europe and China that the USA was mostly spared from. Tesla said this caused a $250M impact in Q3 alone. This probably has affected overall 2022 avg revenue per car by like $400 thus far.
Gross Margin
Too low mainly as a consequence of some of the same reasons listed above.
Lower than expected revenue per car feeds straight into GM obviously. This caused the majority of the error.
Government disruption to Shanghai not only hurt margins at Shanghai, but also dragged down global average margin because of Shanghai being the most profitable factory for 2022.
Cost of goods per car was roughly as I modeled in January after factoring out Shanghai shutdown, so this wasn’t the issue.
Operating Expenses
On track to come in at about $7B, for better leverage than expected.
Bottom Line
- Wall Street was embarrassingly wrong again
- Great things happened within Tesla mostly as predicted
- An exceptionally bad series of external misfortunes from macroeconomy, war and government failings dragged down results
- Price increases came as expected but laggier than expected due to long backlog
- Progress on earnings and delivery growth is about one or two quarters delayed
I suspect more T files release.How cryptic is that??? Guesses?
Did he sell Twitter to Gordo?
I highly doubt it. That's not where his head is at. Very likely more Twitter Files.
Twitter payments...How quickly can Elon make the Bird profitable, go public with it again, and then put all his money back into Tesla?
(asking for a friend)
Hence, there is no need to rebalance based on the price decrease as long as the index owned the appropriate amount of Tesla shares in the first place.
Here is what happens next.
1.) It will involve Twitter files and the topic is most likely to be Fauci.
2.) Elon right or wrong will make inflammatory statements around this.
3.) Someone is going to post the AMZN chart next to TSLA and make statements like "Did AMZN or Bezos buy Twitter?!!??"
4.) Using #3 chart as supporting evidence, say Musk has nothing at all whatsoever (like totally nothing to do at all) with the effect on TSLA.
or he could buy couple of million chairs from under the couchSo how many cars do you suspect Tesla would produce if Musk sold Twitter entirely? Probably 3-3.1m easily right?
/s
I am curious about the first part of that. Only from the perspective of how long until he gets it to a point where he can hire a CEO and get back to his real job.How quickly can Elon make the Bird profitable, go public with it again, and then put all his money back into Tesla?
(asking for a friend)