Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Electroman]

Car on road.
Yes.
Yes.

Wow...

 

[UncaNed]

Disengagement rates would be meaningless at present, other than as comparison to the same numbers from a previous time. Many beta-testers are like me and drive in crowded spaces. If the vehicle behind me appears to be in a hurry I am not letting the Tesla take it's time to sort out the intersection. Instead, I take over, get the left turn at the stop sign done, and then reengage. It's not a failure, it's an inconvenience, and there's a real difference between the two.

Agreed. There should be a way to note which disengagements are because of things like this (most disengagements) and incessant erratic errant momentary turn-signaling when someone's near us vs. actual wrong actions by FSD.

It doesn't seem right to me to piss off other drivers with oddball lane changes and the like (making them angry does not help overall traffic safety) just to test our Teslas.

 

[StealthP3D]

So this is the week that well informed “something” said Shanghai is slowing down… do we have any evidence of this actually happening?

Shanghai slowing down? I don't think most people take issue with the idea that December Shanghai production will be below the record November production, the problem was these reports linked the lower production with demand concerns. We have plenty of evidence that there is no demand problem and that Tesla would not cut production due to demand concerns, especially not with so many underserved markets in the region.

The reports are designed to misinform, even if they contain a kernel of truth. There is a small army of people desperate to misinform and the most effective way to do that is speak out early and often with a narrative that takes a leak about Tesla and re-frames it as something it's not.

 

[Stretch2727]

Toyota flailing around is starting to look like total chaos.

Thinking they are going to out innovate Tesla by using technology from a supply base that every auto manufacturer has access.

https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2022-12-11/exclusive-toyota-to-outline-3-year-ev-plan-changes-to-suppliers-sources

One key quote.

"E-TNGA was designed so EVs could be built on Toyota assembly lines with gasoline cars and hybrids, a compromise that limits the automaker's ability to deliver factory-floor innovations that Toyota engineers now recognise as key to Tesla's strength."

 

[spacerfc]

This seems more relevant to this thread...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1602258482761240576

Note this sentence from Bloomberg is a bit misleading, what actually happened is Shanghai government (like the rest of the country) has given up on controlling covid. So good news is no more lockdowns, bad news is the actual risk of being infected by covid has increased exponentially.

 

[Speedr117]

There're indications that China is at the start of a big covid wave, rumor is 36% of Beijing's population are infected already, the rest of China wouldn't be far behind. This could have an impact on Tesla's China production and sales in December, regardless of the original plan. It's also possible that the leaked plan is actually Tesla's planned response to this covid wave (they should be able to predict this wave based on past examples such as HK).

They could also be using the shutdown (if there is one) to send needed parts (that aren't sourced locally) to Berlin and the US in case Covid shuts down the supply chain in China.

 

[StealthP3D]

Toyota flailing around is starting to look like total chaos.

Thinking they are going to out innovate Tesla by using technology from a supply base that every auto manufacturer has access.

https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2022-12-11/exclusive-toyota-to-outline-3-year-ev-plan-changes-to-suppliers-sources

One key quote.

"E-TNGA was designed so EVs could be built on Toyota assembly lines with gasoline cars and hybrids, a compromise that limits the automaker's ability to deliver factory-floor innovations that Toyota engineers now recognise as key to Tesla's strength."

Another key quote indicates Toyota is admitting the path they put in place was not viable. In other words, the competition still isn't coming.

"The changes, however, might include delays to some of the EV development programmes originally planned for the three-year period, one of the people said."

I don't see delaying competitive EV's out to 2026 and beyond as a viable path to survival. It looks like what happened here is that people within Toyota looked at the EV products in Toyota's pipeline and realized they could not sell them profitably at price points that could compete with Tesla's offerings. They are struggling to figure out how to offer competitive products in the age of electrification. They don't have a clue how they can do it, so they have pushed it out another 3 years. This is not going to end well for them.

 

[Linus_2]

Since China is a hot topic and I am in Beijing, I will say a few words.

Doing business in china is very hard, Tesla as done very well (compare to competition) at all level (marketing, social media control, sales, SC, production, export, margin...)
November Tesla China sales numbers are amazing!
Simply because for four weeks, very few people are on the streets of Beijing (and many other cities) most people were confined and shops were closed, business could only get up to 30% people in office ...

Covid statistics is missing few digits! Covid is everywhere in Beijing, herd immunization is well underway and going fast, could be finished by Chinese New Year.
China has built Covid hospitals like the one near Tesla Shanghai in every big city.
Difficult to know the number of sever cases and if / when the medical system will reach saturation.
Now Chinese administration is more flexible and practical : people can now stay at home if you have Covid. They adapt quickly, for example: daily testing was done by regrouping sample of 10 people but because too many were positive, they could not keep up with tracking and testing 10 people for one case, they stop testing. We only need to show our green pass in a few places.

Difficult to know Covid impact on the economy, a lot of small businesses have suffered.
I agree with tesla price cutting until the economy restart, Covid will pass faster than anticipated.

 

[Drax7]

The price decline and heavy volume don’t make sense.

 

[bkp_duke]

Since China is a hot topic and I am in Beijing, I will say a few words.

Doing business in china is very hard, Tesla as done very well (compare to competition) at all level (marketing, social media control, sales, SC, production, export, margin...)
November Tesla China sales numbers are amazing!
Simply because for four weeks, very few people are on the streets of Beijing (and many other cities) most people were confined and shops were closed, business could only get up to 30% people in office ...

Covid statistics is missing few digits! Covid is everywhere in Beijing, herd immunization is well underway and going fast, could be finished by Chinese New Year.
China has built Covid hospitals like the one near Tesla Shanghai in every big city.
Difficult to know the number of sever cases and if / when the medical system will reach saturation.
Now Chinese administration is more flexible and practical : people can now stay at home if you have Covid. They adapt quickly, for example: daily testing was done by regrouping sample of 10 people but because too many were positive, they could not keep up with tracking and testing 10 people for one case, they stop testing. We only need to show our green pass in a few places.

Difficult to know Covid impact on the economy, a lot of small businesses have suffered.
I agree with tesla price cutting until the economy restart, Covid will pass faster than anticipated.

Question, genuine curiosity, China filters all internet traffic in and out of their country. You have to be pretty high on the food chain to get past that, and I thought this site was filtered by "the great firewall of china".

How are you reaching it? Most VPNs are blocked in China as well.

 

[wtlloyd]

They could also be using the shutdown (if there is one) to send needed parts (that aren't sourced locally) to Berlin and the US in case Covid shuts down the supply chain in China.

This crossed my mind when the rumors started, there may be components that are slower to ramp which could be supplemented by pulling production from China. I would fully expect Tesla to SURGE production in Jan as record orders come in due to IRA. Tesla must be preparing a massive response to IRA opportunity, and they are surely aware that IRA funding may be curtailed or restricted in near future once the funding costs are realized, or political winds blow in a different direction. Ramp hard out of the gate on Jan 1 and compromise production elsewhere to capture market and incentives here.

 

[Paracelsus]

There're indications that China is at the start of a big covid wave, rumor is 36% of Beijing's population are infected already, the rest of China wouldn't be far behind. This could have an impact on Tesla's China production and sales in December, regardless of the original plan. It's also possible that the leaked plan is actually Tesla's planned response to this covid wave (they should be able to predict this wave based on past examples such as HK).

Is the point you are making that with 36% of Beijing is already infected now and the rest of China not far behind....plus all the previously infected population across China, that the majority of the population should soon have their exposure - whether through vaccinations or through contact....and that we can soon move beyond the China's 'Covid-related Tesla production threats' conversations/speculations forever more on this forum? If so, thanks for this post. I have admittedly grown a bit tired of China Covid Death Wave posts from Kiwi and others on the Investors Forum. I seriously cannot imagine any investor in Tesla and their mission selling their TSLA shares because of Covid in China. In fact I don't think I could have ever even made up such a concept in my wildest dreams. "Truth is Stranger than Fiction, Judgy Wudgy" as Curly said to the Judge in The Three Stooges 'Disorder in the Court'. My TSLA-China fascination is now gravitating towards what the next source of Fear & Smear for China production numbers will be. Is it time to start a TMC China/FUD Bingo Card?

 

[Linus_2]

Question, genuine curiosity, China filters all internet traffic in and out of their country. You have to be pretty high on the food chain to get past that, and I thought this site was filtered by "the great firewall of china".

How are you reaching it? Most VPNs are blocked in China as well.

TMC is accessible in china without VPN, however to see the image, Youtube and Twitter inside TMC you need VPN

 

[BornToFly]

I do see the Covid explosion in China as a short term problem. It is going to spread very quickly, and that means a lot of sick workers for the next few weeks. This means there will literally be a shortage of people to run the factory and all the logistics (car haulers, delivery centers, etc.). I expect China production to take a hit for the next month, which will affect Q4 P&D and earnings.

 

[bkp_duke]

TMC is accessible in china without VPN, however to see the image, Youtube and Twitter inside TMC you need VPN

Great to hear, thank you for your insight.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Another key quote indicates Toyota is admitting the path they put in place was not viable. In other words, the competition still isn't coming.

"The changes, however, might include delays to some of the EV development programmes originally planned for the three-year period, one of the people said."

I don't see delaying competitive EV's out to 2026 and beyond as a viable path to survival. It looks like what happened here is that people within Toyota looked at the EV products in Toyota's pipeline and realized they could not sell them profitably at price points that could compete with Tesla's offerings. They are struggling to figure out how to offer competitive products in the age of electrification. They don't have a clue how they can do it, so they have pushed it out another 3 years. This is not going to end well for them.

Pausing also means they can hope for a Republican trifecta in 2024 that will shift US policy and could kill CARB ZEV.
Lots of companies are scrambling for North American manufacturing so they have time.
Also, pausing gives time for CCS infrastructure to continue to expand and improve and fill in Tesla's moat. By 2026 the IRA will mean that there will be lot more high-power infrastructure, time should have weeded out a lot of bad chargers, and Plug & Charge and Autocharge should be widespread, making the CCS experience smoother.

With Tesla's customer service a timebomb, it also might be better to wait until it's finally exploded and there's a bunch of people running away, looking for a decent alternative.

Toyota's current strength is hybrid and PHEV and it doesn't have much competition there. If they can ramp PHEV they can easily meet 2025 EU fleet fuel economy standards, and get a chunk of the US credits they need. If CARB ZEV were killed they'd be in a much better position. but barring that, the growth in EV is also likely to drop the price of ZEV credits.

 

[Linus_2]

I do see the Covid explosion in China as a short term problem. It is going to spread very quickly, and that means a lot of sick workers for the next few weeks. This means there will literally be a shortage of people to run the factory and all the logistics (car haulers, delivery centers, etc.). I expect China production to take a hit for the next month, which will affect Q4 P&D and earnings.

Current Covid in China is very light, it was over in 3 days for most of my friends even for old people, impact should be short.
Tesla organization will probably take the time to optimize the production and do some maintenance.
After Government will probably boost the economy if necessary.

So yes maybe a little less cars as planned for Q4 but good news for next year.

 

[CHGolferJim]

I do see the Covid explosion in China as a short term problem. It is going to spread very quickly, and that means a lot of sick workers for the next few weeks. This means there will literally be a shortage of people to run the factory and all the logistics (car haulers, delivery centers, etc.). I expect China production to take a hit for the next month, which will affect Q4 P&D and earnings.

Perhaps the infections/hospitalizations/deaths will hit relatively quickly, but how quickly do you suppose people will get back to work, even with primary effects on the post-employment elderly?

 

[Speedr117]

I feel like a simple, $10-$20 million dollar brand campaign would reverse all the negativity around Tesla from the last few months. I know, breaking with tradition, but change is inevitable. Even if demand is going to go through the roof due to the IRA (and crazy cheap Leases is Tesla chooses to do that).

 

[MP3Mike]

If they can ramp PHEV they can easily meet 2025 EU fleet fuel economy standards, and get a chunk of the US credits they need.

That might be more difficult with the new emissions calculation method that goes into effect in 2025 for PHEVs: Europe is going to monitor the consumption of PHEV cars and will tighten its homologation protocol to make it more realistic

And Germany is already planning to end PHEV subsidies...