Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[hobbes]

So direct to phone means direct to cars, too, right? Adam Jonas vindicated?

Apparently:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1562981667480150018

 

[lascavarian]

Apparently:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1562981667480150018

Disturbingly, he was also right that Gov’ts would have concerns about the surveillance abilities of the cars. Now radio quiet zones like Green Bank, WV and the NRAO will have be mapped to keep the Teslas from switching to StarLink in those areas where cellular is not available.

 

[BitJam]

1) With Starlink having the most advanced antennas soon orbiting our planet and able to pick up any low signal:
Isn't this system capable of spying on almost every electronic device on earth that emits electro-magnetic signals and isn't in a Faraday cage?

No. The antennas and electronics are tuned to a specific band of frequencies. Also, it is possible (and much easier) to eavesdrop from Earth. And, LTE calls are encrypted to prevent others from listening in even if they can intercept the signal.

In addition, it should be pretty easy to block your own signals from going skyward without resorting to a Faraday cage. Those fancy antennas are needed to pick up signals that are intentionally sent their way because there is already a lot of attenuation due to the distance.

The Starlink satellites will be better at eavesdropping in the middle of nowhere but most of the interesting signals come from within or around cities where there are better ways of getting the signal.

For a given range of frequencies, the ability to pick up a signal can be measured by the maximum bandwidth. The bandwidth on Earth is huge (high resolution video) while Elon has been warning that the Starlink cell phone bandwidth will be much smaller. So at best you will be able to eavesdrop on relatively low bandwidth signals in the frequency range the system is tuned for that are not encrypted and don't have the skyward direction shielded.

 

[Mengy]

I realize the SpaceX/T-Mobile announcement has very little to do with Tesla (currently at least), but do we think it will affect the SP tomorrow? Will definitely be watching T-Mobile stock price.

I doubt it, this is more of a SpaceX thing, not Tesla.

But then, good news for Tesla like production rates increasing and such don't seem to move TSLA anymore either....

So, maybe, yeah?

 

[samppa]

No I got € 2500 government credit back in 2019 when I purchased a Model 3, but that was the last year we had incentives for electric vehicles.
We still have some advantages:
- No car registration to pay => when you compare the power of an electric vehicle to an ice that saves you between € 1000-5000
- No yearly road taxes => yearly savings of € 500-1000 when you do the same comparison

Company cars are 100% fiscally deductible (used to be 125%)

What could explain the price difference then? it's a bit strange that belgium is 10k€ cheaper than scandinavia.

 

[ZachF]

Do you have some government credit on this or something?

Price in Finland for rwd Y is 59.990€.

VATs, sales taxes, shipping costs are different for every country.

 

[Singuy]

Tesls invited analysts to giga berlin. After hearing UBS having a buy rating after the visit, Jeffries also just came back with another reiterating of buy rating. Berlin is claiming to be the most profitable factory, matching or surpassing Shanghai according to their notes. I suggest people go watch Tesla Daily for a solid summery.

 

[SebastienBonny]

What could explain the price difference then? it's a bit strange that belgium is 10k€ cheaper than scandinavia.

Probably combination of several things. Transportation costs, but currency as well I think.
Italy, France, Portugal, Belgium, Holland, Luxembourg (all EUR) all have the MY SR for sale for 49 999.
Slightly more expensive in Germany and 10K more in Ireland.

 

[Nolimits]

Tesls invited analysts to giga berlin. After hearing UBS having a buy rating after the visit, Jeffries also just came back with another reiterating of buy rating. Berlin is claiming to be the most profitable factory, matching or surpassing Shanghai according to their notes. I suggest people go watch Tesla Daily for a solid summery.

Analysts awakening..

2023 forecasts should be a big eye opener.
Kicking myself for not buying more leaps when Tsla was in 600s.

 

[elasalle]

Hawk Or Dove? Talking heads have made the market jittery saying to expect a hawkish tone.
Let’s see.
Relief rally……

 

[Atomsla]

What could explain the price difference then? it's a bit strange that belgium is 10k€ cheaper than scandinavia.

To add to this - it differs from country to county in Europe.
I just checked the norwegian site and its €53,754. range is 430km WLTP

Norway €53,754 - 430km WLTP
Sweden €55,762 - 430km WLTP
Denmark €60,510 - 455km WLTP
Finland €59,990 - 455km WLTP

further:
Germany €53,990 - 430km WLTP
Netherlands €49,990 - 455km WLTP
Belgium €49,990 - 455 km WLTP

I dont know if the difference in range is due to a different pack, but it seems like for Netherlands and Belgium the price is lower for a higher range. So uhh...
some of this might be due to taxes being different, or subsidies being in- or excluded, but on that front I do know that BEV's priced above 45k don't qualify in the Netherlands.

edit: Top speed and 0-100km time is the same for norway and netherlands. Perhaps the range is the same, but the 25km difference has to do with the way the max range is calculated in different countries? I'm sure someone other than me knows more, as I only deal in half-assed research

 

[jw934]

Wooow!
Tesla model Y RWD is now the cheapest Tesla available in Belgium !! Cheaper than the M3

View attachment 845285

That 6.9 seconds may be a clue on why the €10,000 lower price than previous.

For comparison, the MY LR in Canada says 5 seconds.

Perhaps Tesla will later offer a boost to the acceleration, for a price.

 

[hobbes]

Tesls invited analysts to giga berlin. After hearing UBS having a buy rating after the visit, Jeffries also just came back with another reiterating of buy rating. Berlin is claiming to be the most profitable factory, matching or surpassing Shanghai according to their notes. I suggest people go watch Tesla Daily for a solid summery.

UBS note from the Rob´s video:

Gigacasting is the key innovation; ramp-up obviously progressing well
We were the first broker to get a Giga Berlin tour together with key clients. We saw a
very busy factory floor obviously making good progress towards the 5,000 car/week
target run-rate by year-end. Parts of the plant are even ready for 10k vehicles/week.
With a sequence time of 45 seconds by car and 10 hours from the body shop to final
assembly, Tesla believes it is more than twice as fast as VW's MEB plant. The key process
innovation is Gigacasting, which replaces an army of welding robots for a single rear-end
underbody part. By year-end, Tesla plans to do the front-end underbody also as a single
die-cast piece with a total of 8 Gigapresses, enabling the use of a 4680 structural
battery. Tesla expects to have in-house 4680 cell supply up and running by then next
door.

Reiterating local 4680 supply by year end is very bullish to me after it seemed things have been moving a bit slower than expected at Austin.

 

[jamaatta]

Probably combination of several things. Transportation costs, but currency as well I think.
Italy, France, Portugal, Belgium, Holland, Luxembourg (all EUR) all have the MY SR for sale for 49 999.
Slightly more expensive in Germany and 10K more in Ireland.

Our currency in Finland is euro.

 

[mongo]

Thread for T-Mobile SpaceX:
Starlink direct to T-Mobile phone

A few technical wows in the cell phone to satellite announcement. Will have to do the math on the received power at a satellite 500km up from a cell phone, but will be so tiny. And the transmitter needs to continuously adjust the frequency of the phased array (which is fancy way to do beam steering) based on sat location. The 'cell' size of the satellite will be very big so really for low pop areas as they said. Amazing technology.

Cell phone handset antennas are not phased arrays (currently, in the PCS band). Even if they were, human dynamics have higher angle rates than satellite tracking requires.

Disturbingly, he was also right that Gov’ts would have concerns about the surveillance abilities of the cars. Now radio quiet zones like Green Bank, WV and the NRAO will have be mapped to keep the Teslas from switching to StarLink in those areas where cellular is not available.

It's not switching to Starlink, it's the same cellular setup that phones already use. Starlink v2 just looks like a high ping cell tower. The satellites would have radio blackout locations they avoid transmitting at.

 

[samppa]

To add to this - it differs from country to county in Europe.
I just checked the norwegian site and its €53,754. range is 430km WLTP

Norway €53,754 - 430km WLTP
Sweden €55,762 - 430km WLTP
Denmark €60,510 - 455km WLTP
Finland €59,990 - 455km WLTP

further:
Germany €53,990 - 430km WLTP
Netherlands €49,990 - 455km WLTP
Belgium €49,990 - 455 km WLTP

I dont know if the difference in range is due to a different pack, but it seems like for Netherlands and Belgium the price is lower for a higher range. So uhh...
some of this might be due to taxes being different, or subsidies being in- or excluded, but on that front I do know that BEV's priced above 45k don't qualify in the Netherlands.

edit: Top speed and 0-100km time is the same for norway and netherlands. Perhaps the range is the same, but the 25km difference has to do with the way the max range is calculated in different countries? I'm sure someone other than me knows more, as I only deal in half-assed research

Are you sure you had the same wheels/rims for each car? 19" are 455km range, 20" are 430km.

LR models cost pretty much the same in different european countries, so pricing for rwd model Y is s bit strange.

 

[EVMeister]

That 6.9 seconds may be a clue on why the €10,000 lower price than previous.

For comparison, the MY LR in Canada says 5 seconds.

Perhaps Tesla will later offer a boost to the acceleration, for a price.

View attachment 845384

One is AWD and the other is RWD. The acceleration differences are mainly a byproduct of that. May be possible for a slight boost in acceleration to the RWD model, but it likely won't be able to match or come very close to the AWD model.

 

[ZsoZso]

View attachment 845284 View attachment 845286

If you want to see some really impressive correlations, then look at here:

Hilarious Graphs Prove That Correlation Isn’t Causation

That is, unless we do have Nicholas Cage to blame for all those people drowning in swimming pools.

www.fastcompany.com

Spoiler: some examples

If you continue to argue that Elon dumping 8 million shares on the market on a day had less effect on the price of the stock than macro movements on that day, then I am sorry I cannot help you, you are beyond reason and logic.

 

[Mengy]

UBS note from the Rob´s video:

Reiterating local 4680 supply by year end is very bullish to me after it seemed things have been moving a bit slower than expected at Austin.

Yeah, that surprised me too. It would be awesome if it happens that quickly, but I must admit I'm a bit skeptical it will...

 

[elasalle]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1563013233148977152

https://twitter.com/x/status/1563130062869630976

looks like lots of inventory for Aus/NZ this Q.

(+ Aus ships not tracked in Mr. Franco's spreadsheets (currently at 12)...)