Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mengy]

Elon literally just said he thinks they'll hit it. It's not like he's forecasting for a year from now. It's literally this quarter and next.

So barring anything that comes up that isn't known as of today (like another Shanghai factory), Elon's words here hold a lot of weight.

I know, I heard him say it, but the math on it is daunting. Those are incredibly huge production numbers needed for Q3 and Q4 to hit that 1.5.

To hit 1.5 you'd need something like Q3 = 438,000 and Q4 = 498,000. That's a huge increase from Q1, and remember some of Q3 has shutdowns for retooling. In order to hit that Q4 we'd have to be well over a 2 million run rate for much of Q4.

1.4 just seems more reasonable to me, you'd only need Q3 = 388,000 and Q4 = 448,000 to hit that. Those production targets seem much more attainable IMHO.

 

[wipster]

They will announce what date you need to be shareholder of record at the same time as they announce what the date of the split will be.

Thanks mate! Last time it was stocks of record a week before the actual split occurred, so he should be good. Should have searched before I asked...

 

[jerry33]

Not supposed to be used in urban setting.

That's auto-pilot, not FSD. I was referring to FSD.

 

[Todd Burch]

I know, I heard him say it, but the math on it is daunting. Those are incredibly huge production numbers needed for Q3 and Q4 to hit that 1.5.

To hit 1.5 you'd need something like Q3 = 438,000 and Q4 = 498,000. That's a huge increase from Q1, and remember some of Q3 has shutdowns for retooling. In order to hit that Q4 we'd have to be well over a 2 million run rate for much of Q4.

1.4 just seems more reasonable to me, you'd only need Q3 = 388,000 and Q4 = 448,000 to hit that. Those production targets seem much more attainable IMHO.

One time on an earnings call long long ago Elon briefly mentioned something about S curves. Never said anything about it ever again after he first mentioned it so I don’t remember clearly, but it was along the lines of “S curves something something hard to predict” .

 

[unk45]

That begs the question: Why is so much energy and, presumably, coin spent to generate and communicate fear, uncertainty, and doubt, if those on the Street have that view?

Because FUD increases volatility, with all investor classes.
FUD=market maker profit

 

[Krugerrand]

Literally taking over the world.

Careful who hears you say that.

 

[betstarship]

I'm surprised there was nothing about heat pumps.

 

[Boomer19]

That notice is the same notice that I downloaded Aug 31, 2020.

i thought i explained all this but i maybe i need to do a better job of it when there’s more time to use a keyboard and not a couple thumbs

 

[Mengy]

I'm surprised there was nothing about heat pumps.

I think that is one of the "future products" Elon coyly referred to. At least I hope it is.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Yep. Personally, and its just my opinion, I think we'll end up closer to 1.4 million for the year than 1.5 million. The production increase needed for Q3 and Q4 to hit 1.5 is simply too aggressive in my opinion. If Q2 hadn't been impacted by the Shanghai shutdown then 1.5 would have been an easy target, but now I think it's improbable.

1.4 would still be 50% growth for the year, so there's nothing at all wrong with that.

Tesla production was and remains chip constrained. Not copper or batteries or hours of labor constrained.

If Austin and Berlin do reasonably well ramping, it should be doable. Nothing wrong with being conservative tho.

Either way, exiting the year at a 2M rate is magnificent.

 

[Big Time]

Was watching the most recent Tesla Economist video today, he was explaining how the rumored 2,200 per day out of Shanghais model Y line, with another 1.8K for the Model 3 Line, So that would be..... 4000 per day out of Shanghai. Thats 360,000 out of Shanghai alone, at that run rate, Not sure when these line upgrades start/end. He seemed to think the Y line is done, and 3 Line upgrade is perhaps happening right now.

So if we got to get to 500000 in Q4, that means we get that run rate achieved by Q4 start....... and we would only need 140,000 to come out of Fremont/Berlin/Austin........ Q2 was 135K in Fremont, so we would just need 5K from Austin and Berlin.

Am I confused? HELP!! Bullish?

 

[TN Mtn Man]

If slamming on the brakes is not your no.1 (or no.2 - after veering) defensive instinct in a car, you're not a good driver. Not Tesla's fault to anticipate what you want. To be clear, a Tesla will already brake if it sees a stoppage ahead. TACC is not a design flaw.

If I have to swerve, and did not hit something or go in the ditch, I've avoided whatever I swerved to avoid. I don't need or want the car to slam on the brakes. Just today in my car (non-Tesla) I took over from my ADAS to get some more clearance from a tire "alligator" (chunk of semi tire) in the left side of the lane-don't want the car to slam on the brakes in highway traffic. I'm regularly adjusting position on rural roads to have a little more room between wildlife (deer, turkeys primarily). Again, don't want the car slamming on the brakes. Not a good situation.

 

[unk45]

Yah, pick Canada for one Elon. Think of your roots!

Elon lived in Canada from June '89 to '95 before moving the the US.
Born in raised in South Africa.

EDIT: @wipster, sure, with 10 - 12 GFs, need at least one on each continent. It'll happen.

Born with Canadian citizenship too.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

So by my math Elon's 1.5M deliveries is about 90k more than @The Accountant has for 2022. Shall we adjust or stand pat for now?

 

[MC3OZ]

10-12 GFs, 1.5-2 mil output per year EACH. Eventually.

Breaking this down 1.5-2 mil per GF not a problem.

4 GFs now (rounding Fremont up a bit)

An additional 8 GFs needed by 2030, average roughly 1 new GF per year.

But to hit 20 Million by 2030, the last GF needs to be fully ramped.

IMO 1-2 additional GFs per year 2023-2030 seems possible,

But we would not be at a 20 Million vehicles per year by 2030. More likely they would have factories ramping to a projected run-rate of 20 Million vehicles per year.

In the most optimistic scenario, 20 Million vehicles per year is more like 2035.

Still overall my impression is the target is achievable by constructing this number of factories on roughly this timeframe.

 

[TN Mtn Man]

So, $1050 EOD tomorrow? ATH EOM?

 

[Big Time]

 

[mongo]

So assuming 3:1 will be announced by the 8K, as of what date will the shares need to be on record? Convinced a friend to open a brokerage account, but he can't buy anything until Monday, that's why I ask.

There is behind the scenes tracking for trades after the date of record. If your friend is also in the US then it doesn't matter, shares will 3x on the switchover date regardless.

 

[Nocturnal]

View attachment 836862

1,404,333 would put us exactly at 50% YoY (using 936,222 deliveries). Would be nice to at least hit that to avoid the FUD around guidance.

 

[wipster]

There is behind the scenes tracking for trades after the date of record. If your friend is also in the US then it doesn't matter, shares will 3x on the switchover date regardless.

Thanks for the info mate! Have a great weekend... can't believe I'm watching the Hall of Fame game already, time flies when you get older.