Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ZachF]

Don't they need new license plates in most countries, which requires registration?

You can get 30 day temporary plates here in NH, but we're also the "Live Free or Die" state, lol... and it's different in every state.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Yes if Model 3 deliveries were that high I would be expecting a modest net profit. But I simply don't see how they could have deliveries that high. In their guidance they said deliveries would be 10k lower than production. 77k is around my guess for production right now with around 65k deliveries. Right now we have just under 17k reported deliveries across Europe for the Model 3 with Germany still needing to report in which I'm guessing will add 3-5k for March. Insideev's just came out with their March estimate of 10-12k Model 3 for March. I'm gonna go with the high end estimate which would give a total of 24,250 Model 3 for the quarter in the US. Can probably add 3k from Canada and I have no idea how deliveries are going in Mexico but let's just add 1k as a guess. This gets me to 50k. I believe China got the same number of ships as Europe so they should contribute over 10k but there is doesn't seem to be very good reporting of numbers over there. I also suspect insideev's numbers for the US might be a little low which brings me to me 65k estimate. I could see the final number being +-5k from that. 70k Model 3 deliveries and 16k S&X actually outputs a $0.01 profit in my model but my opex numbers could be wildly off as they are just estimates and I have no idea if they will try to sell many ZEV credit this quarter.

Yes, I realized that I was adding 10k extra Model 3 deliveries in a simple math error. No wonder!

 

[Doggydogworld]

10-12k for March is low, plus we know it from Alpha Hat that InsideEV underestimated January numbers by about 37%:

Tesla Delivered More Vehicles in January than Reports Suggest

'A few weeks ago we wrote that Tesla delivered a surprisingly high number of vehicles in the first couple of weeks of January. Our more recent data showed that the trend continued for the full month, with Tesla delivering around 11,485 vehicles (S, X & 3) within the US in January. Our data indicates deliveries were 37% higher than the widely-followed estimates from InsideEVs, who reported 8,375 US deliveries across all models."​

You place a lot of faith in AlphaHat (except when they say 2500 cars/ship, ha). Anyway, there's also a Tesla hater tweeting purported TX/FL data that scales to 25.4k Model 3 deliveries in North America this quarter.

You also take as gospel that Tesla delivered 4700 Model 3s in Canada in Jan/Feb. InsideEVs and common sense say it was closer to 1500.

I've estimated from 60-62k Model 3 deliveries in Q1. I'm sticking with that, though it'll take a really good number from China.

 

[Fact Checking]

Insideev's just came out with their March estimate of 10-12k Model 3 for March.

InsideEVs is possibly significantly underestimating U.S. deliveries:

10-12k for March is low, plus we know it from Alpha Hat that InsideEV underestimated January numbers by about 37%:

Tesla Delivered More Vehicles in January than Reports Suggest

'A few weeks ago we wrote that Tesla delivered a surprisingly high number of vehicles in the first couple of weeks of January. Our more recent data showed that the trend continued for the full month, with Tesla delivering around 11,485 vehicles (S, X & 3) within the US in January. Our data indicates deliveries were 37% higher than the widely-followed estimates from InsideEVs, who reported 8,375 US deliveries across all models."​

Alpha Hat is apparently tracking LTE modem IMEIs through Tesla's mobile network provider, which makes their methodology very accurate and VIN registrations invariant.

 

[lklundin]

Bob lutz goes out of his way to malign tesla in any way he can.
Why so much hate , what motivates such negativity .
To ask the question is to answer it, I figure.

They should interview Elon on CNBC concerning bob lutz business .

Elon Musk: "Bob who?"

 

[Pras]

What is it Elon says?

May not be directly at Lutz, but it may still sting...

Bob Lutz was disgraceful today, even by his standard. But more disgraceful is CNBC to give him air time. Taking shot at someone who is not there to defend himself. Calling personal stuff like manic depressive. I mean even if someone has manic depression, you would still be respectful. Tesla should just go for the kill here. Enter the 25k segment and get them out of business.

 

[shrspeedblade]

Bob Lutz was disgraceful today, even by his standard. But more disgraceful is CNBC to give him air time. Taking shot at someone who is not there to defend himself. Calling personal stuff like manic depressive. I mean even if someone has manic depression, you would still be respectful. Tesla should just go for the kill here. Enter the pickup truck and SUV segment and get them out of business.

FTFY

 

[hobbes]

A closed border for more than a short time would also halt the production at Fremont (since the cars include Mexican parts).

But having read that a closed border would cause the US to run out of Avocados in 3 weeks tells me that (slightly) cooler heads will prevail.

You seem to be in a particularly good mood . Did you pick up your Model 3?! (If so, your signature doesn´t reflect that yet)

 

[mrdoubleb]

AFAIK Germany will report March registrations in two days - 4th of April.

5-6k sounds too much - 3-4k would be fantastic!

Not sure if you've seen @avoigt information on this. He has the data from BAFA on how many requests have been submitted in March for the EV subsidy.
The Model 3 numbers make sense but Model S is suspect. First of all, the S barely qualifies for the subsidy (not sure what the latest status is after the back and forth with the "fake" entry price). Second, all last year there were 1900 S+X sold in Germany and now this data shows over 2K from S alone in 1 month. Maybe the data is cumulative all time total? If not it would be super weird how the Model S suddenly shoots up like this.

 

[Swampgator]

Bob Lutz was disgraceful today, even by his standard. But more disgraceful is CNBC to give him air time. Taking shot at someone who is not there to defend himself. Calling personal stuff like manic depressive. I mean even if someone has manic depression, you would still be respectful. Tesla should just go for the kill here. Enter the 25k segment and get them out of business.

Bob no longer works for or represents GM. He does however represent 2 other small, go nowhere automakers. Via Motors and VLF Automotive. Both of which have already been crushed by Tesla.

 

[lklundin]

I am not sure about all other countries, but in least in Germany you have to register your care befor you go pick it up.

I guess home delivery could create an exception to that - also in Germany.

Would be a bummer to be unable to drive the new Model 3 sitting in one's driveway though...

Has Tesla made any of these mobile deliveries in the EU?

 

[Fact Checking]

You place a lot of faith in AlphaHat (except when they say 2500 cars/ship, ha).

IIRC Alpha Hat had a better than 97% forecast accuracy of Tesla deliveries since 2017.

I also think their 2,500 Model 3s per ship figure is plausible - which with 16 ships is ~40k units: 16k China and 24k Europe split sounds plausible as well.

Anyway, there's also a Tesla hater tweeting purported TX/FL data that scales to 25.4k Model 3 deliveries in North America this quarter.

Is there any reason we should trust that data?

TX/FL is not a proper sample in any case, TX is one of the longest delivery latency states, it wouldn't get much from March production for example. So extrapolating TX and East Coast data would probably underestimate deliveries as Tesla ships to closer states at the end of the quarter.

You also take as gospel that Tesla delivered 4700 Model 3s in Canada in Jan/Feb. InsideEVs and common sense say it was closer to 1500

You are probably right about that one.

 

[Buckminster]

Login on Twitter
No truth in this I assume?

 

[KarenRei]

Login on Twitter
No truth in this I assume?

To what? That Elon is on Twitter?

I think I can safely confirm that

 

[AlexS]

Alpha Hat is apparently tracking LTE modem IMEIs through Tesla's mobile network provider, which makes their methodology very accurate and VIN registrations invariant.

Then according Alfa Hat Germany March will be very weak, because they said that 19 000 M3s were shipped. Or we have missed some ship. 1x1500 + 7x2500. I haven't seen this report, but somebody posted it here.

 

[Fact Checking]

Second, all last year there were 1900 S+X sold in Germany and now this data shows over 2K from S alone in 1 month.

Haven't seen that data yet, thanks!

A big EV incentive started in Germany in January for corporate cars, so I wouldn't be surprised about higher Model S sales in Germany at all. In fact I predicted such a possibility back in November:

TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable​

 

[Fact Checking]

Then according Alfa Hat Germany March will be very weak, because they said that 19 000 M3s were shipped. Or we have missed some ship. 1x1500 + 7x2500. I haven't seen this report, but somebody posted it here.

It's unclear whether Alpha Hat is able to track European IMEIs. They might have used satellite pictures like others, which aren't very high resolution. If the 2,500 was 2,900 it would explain the discrepancy.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Login on Twitter
No truth in this I assume?

Musk should tweet that crypto using the proof of work concept (like dogecoin, bitcoin) is incompatible with sustainable anything and distance himself.

Edit: he’s just done the opposite. Can’t simultaneously lead the transformation to the most efficient form of road transport and promote an obscenely energy wasteful currency. Not smart.

Bitcoin Energy Consumption Index - Digiconomist

 

[Tifighter]

From my Schwab newsfeed. Average delivery estimate feels a little different, suddenly?

 

[sundaymorning]

Bob Lutz was disgraceful today, even by his standard. But more disgraceful is CNBC to give him air time. Taking shot at someone who is not there to defend himself. Calling personal stuff like manic depressive. I mean even if someone has manic depression, you would still be respectful. Tesla should just go for the kill here. Enter the 25k segment and get them out of business.

Bob is made his Volt got discontinued. His character and demeanor shows the type of people GM hires. You have this type of attitude and expect a winning product. While I understand why he’s bitter and salty, he’s making an a$$ out of himself like Elon once did with the pedo tweet. So let’s hope Elon doesn’t call Bob our for being a pedo, just take the high road and let the Model 3 do the talking.