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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Think it's a little overblown. When these car manufactures are cutting production due to supply chain issues, it's probably best not to use 2021 numbers to draw any conclusions.
Oh so we take your word for it over Nissan's CEO? Or VW's Diess?


 
Oh so we take your word for it over Nissan's CEO? Or VW's Diess?


From my own little analysis, Nio seems to be a lot noise and little action. Growth rate not crazy, lots of fluff that doesn’t matter, little vertical integration. Xpeng is mostly stealing from Tesla, who wants to have that image when they buy a car? The real competition seems to be BYD, SGMW, SAIC.
 
Oh so we take your word for it over Nissan's CEO? Or VW's Diess?


I can very easily see well priced EVs taking shares from low tier brands like GM, Nissan, or Volkswagen. Deal shoppers are looking for deals, and EVs having a lower cost of ownership and some being 1/3rd the cost of a GM is a screaming good deal.

However "lifestyle" brands are selling more cars than ever in China despite the competition. Mercedes see their sales increase by 12% in 2021. Porsche saw a 8% increase yoy in 2021, and BMW a 9% increase.

So show off brands are continuing to sell like hot cakes.



 
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From my own little analysis, Nio seems to be a lot noise and little action. Growth rate not crazy, lots of fluff that doesn’t matter, little vertical integration. Xpeng is mostly stealing from Tesla, who wants to have that image when they buy a car? The real competition seems to be BYD, SGMW, SAIC.
Can’t take Nio seriously as long as they think battery swapping is a good idea.

To me, range is a solved problem as long as there is a decent charging infrastructure. No need for exotic non-solutions. EM was spot on when he said 500 miles range isn’t necessary.

Personal example: I bought an E-Propulsion electric outboard which I love, but it doesn’t need the huge range it has. The battery lasts half a season and charges in no time. It’s a nice comfort blanket but realistically a smaller battery would make more sense from cost and weight perspectives.
 
I agree that battery swapping seems like an overkill solution when we have fast chargers, but its not entirely crazy. Firstly, there are people out there who kid themselves that they need to 'fill up' in under 5 minutes or the world will end. Having that option (even if in practice they never use it) might tip some people over to hit buy.

Secondly, the advantage of battery swap stations is you can trickle-charge the batteries when not in use. That means that the peak load on the swap station in terms of power is possibly WAY lower than if you had to provide fast chargers.

The power draw of a supercharger (single connector) is huge. The power draw of a 16 or 32 bay supercharger site is insane. There just are not that many locations where there is spare capacity in a country's electrical grid to draw down that much power. That means local grid upgrades ($$$$)
In theory you can locally generate with solar, but you can only fit a 1MW solar farm in 2 hectares. You need a huge solar farm next to every roadside supercharger station to make that work.

I'm 100% team fast-charge, but I would not write off battery swapping as totally nuts. Depending on the size of the country, the number of roadtrips people do, and the electrical infrastructure, an argument can be made that its not dead tech. Especially if in 5 years time NIO are on battery swap v2, happening in half or quarter the time. (Its actually quite clunky and slow now afaik).
 
I agree that battery swapping seems like an overkill solution when we have fast chargers, but its not entirely crazy. Firstly, there are people out there who kid themselves that they need to 'fill up' in under 5 minutes or the world will end. Having that option (even if in practice they never use it) might tip some people over to hit buy.

Secondly, the advantage of battery swap stations is you can trickle-charge the batteries when not in use. That means that the peak load on the swap station in terms of power is possibly WAY lower than if you had to provide fast chargers.

The power draw of a supercharger (single connector) is huge. The power draw of a 16 or 32 bay supercharger site is insane. There just are not that many locations where there is spare capacity in a country's electrical grid to draw down that much power. That means local grid upgrades ($$$$)
In theory you can locally generate with solar, but you can only fit a 1MW solar farm in 2 hectares. You need a huge solar farm next to every roadside supercharger station to make that work.

I'm 100% team fast-charge, but I would not write off battery swapping as totally nuts. Depending on the size of the country, the number of roadtrips people do, and the electrical infrastructure, an argument can be made that its not dead tech. Especially if in 5 years time NIO are on battery swap v2, happening in half or quarter the time. (Its actually quite clunky and slow now afaik).
Doesn’t it make more sense to have a Megapack on-site to deal with most of these points? Similar amount of ‘idle’ battery capacity, but cheaper chemistry and gets around the difficulty/impossibility of swapping structural packs.
 
From my own little analysis, Nio seems to be a lot noise and little action. Growth rate not crazy, lots of fluff that doesn’t matter, little vertical integration. Xpeng is mostly stealing from Tesla, who wants to have that image when they buy a car? The real competition seems to be BYD, SGMW, SAIC.
Smaller but still relevant: Chery. With Polestar, Volvo, London Taxi as well they are one of the more unusual Chinese non-government firms.
Now they do this:Geely Automobile Holdings to Acquire 34.02% of the Shares of Renault Korea Motors
That seems odd, but the Renault Korea is the former Samsung operation, but Renault really needs China and is thus far having really horrible China results:

Geely is making more and more unusual moves, thus far with good success.
Lest we forget they also have Proton in Malaysia and are niw entering South Africa.
of course they have ICE and hybrid also, but their heart and commitments are primarily BEV.

Mostly they’re no threat to Tesla.
disclosure: I own a Geely Group bev
 
I agree that battery swapping seems like an overkill solution when we have fast chargers, but its not entirely crazy. Firstly, there are people out there who kid themselves that they need to 'fill up' in under 5 minutes or the world will end. Having that option (even if in practice they never use it) might tip some people over to hit buy.

Secondly, the advantage of battery swap stations is you can trickle-charge the batteries when not in use. That means that the peak load on the swap station in terms of power is possibly WAY lower than if you had to provide fast chargers.

The power draw of a supercharger (single connector) is huge. The power draw of a 16 or 32 bay supercharger site is insane. There just are not that many locations where there is spare capacity in a country's electrical grid to draw down that much power. That means local grid upgrades ($$$$)
In theory you can locally generate with solar, but you can only fit a 1MW solar farm in 2 hectares. You need a huge solar farm next to every roadside supercharger station to make that work.

I'm 100% team fast-charge, but I would not write off battery swapping as totally nuts. Depending on the size of the country, the number of roadtrips people do, and the electrical infrastructure, an argument can be made that its not dead tech. Especially if in 5 years time NIO are on battery swap v2, happening in half or quarter the time. (Its actually quite clunky and slow now afaik).
if we have 10 Teslas which need to drive 500 km on SC and 10 similar NIOs which need to drive 500 km total energy will be about the same. NIO swap station have 13 bays after they swapped out with empty batteries they need to be recharged quite fast otherwise someone will not get fully charged battery. So it's either underused capital or they need the same power plus the expenses of mechanical side.

Tesla SC is about 75kW per stall, just with V3 it's dynamically shared
 
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I don’t like or respect ANY “Me too”-ers. Adding something to a discussion, however, is what discourse is all about.

I tried to back follow this chain and failed, so apologizes if the following is redundant or orthogonal.

I see a difference between discussion/ differing points of view/ discourse, and factual correction.

Many times I have come across a post that, whether by Mandela Effect, bad Google prioritization, incorrect source, or typo, is factually incorrect. Depending on the rate of my TMC refreshing, this post may have already been rated positively as the data looks correct and the forum is always getting new peeps that have not heard all the 'known' things.
To correct the error, I will hit disagree first to flag the content as wrong in some way lest it be accepted and disseminated, read the rest of the posts I missed, type a reply with links to the correct source material, check if anyone else did the same, and then post.

At that point, I see little value add in others writing effectively the same rebuttal post multiple times; but, if they add a disagree to the incorrect post, then those who come after will see the post has more than downvotes than up and interpret it accordingly. Positive upvotes on the correction also help to indicate factuality. Readers can also use the quoted message in the rebuttal to back track and adjust their ratings. Thus, the rating on the original post can indicate the judgement on the merit of the full chain of the opposing positions.

Such as (correct versions):
S&P inclusion rules state the *sum* of the last 4 quarters *should* be profitable. (Woolly Carp! Investopedia finally (April 23, 2022) fixed this article!)

Global Future City Holding Inc.'s insider trading policy *is not* an SEC rule.
 
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I think a feature like an automatic “Ignore” after you gave 👎s to the same poster a few times, let’s say 5 or 10, will make everyone’s forum reading way more efficient. Some of you are wasting time with people that don’t want to have their mind changed, for whatever reasons.
Wouldn't that have the side effect of frequently disagreed with posters ending up not getting disagrees and thus appearing more correct to those who can still see the post?
Thumbs down on its own does not decrease efficiency, repeated rebutting the same argument does, but is neccessary on some level.

Illusory truth effect - Wikipedia

Ability to annotate posts with counter-references would be super neat (but requires mod intervention currently). Or a thread of only common corrections to reference.
 
I think a feature like an automatic “Ignore” after you gave 👎s to the same poster a few times, let’s say 5 or 10, will make everyone’s forum reading way more efficient. Some of you are wasting time with people that don’t want to have their mind changed, for whatever reasons.
I don’t want any automatic censoring. I don’t block anyone. I just know anyone with dark, stormy, alpha, bird, strong, or trolly mctrollface, in their name, is going to say something ridiculous. It’s good for a laugh sometimes.
 
I think a feature like an automatic “Ignore” after you gave 👎s to the same poster a few times, let’s say 5 or 10, will make everyone’s forum reading way more efficient. Some of you are wasting time with people that don’t want to have their mind changed, for whatever reasons.

Wait, do you want to implement the popular shadow banning feature that Elon is trying to remove from Twitter for around $50B? ;)
 
I don’t want any automatic censoring. I don’t block anyone. I just know anyone with dark, stormy, alpha, bird, strong, or trolly mctrollface, in their name, is going to say something ridiculous. It’s good for a laugh sometimes.
Blocking is a time saver. Depending on the medium, blocked posts are either hidden or smaller, reducing the need to scroll or change pages. It's disproportionate as well, since the people you'll block are mentalists or attention-seekers who write many long posts. Pro tip: blocking everybody with animated or annoying user images is a good start.
 
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