Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TSLA Pilot]

Having gotten used to this roller coaster ride, I totally agree!

But... Many of us are strongly in LEAPS. Many of us have trusted the devil and are using a little or a lot of margin (I've been there myself!).

IMHO this might be a good time to ask ourselves what would happen if there was a market crash or recession and TSLA dropped to like $400 or $500 for over 24 months. Unless you're just HODLING shares. Then you'd likely do OK in the long run unless you're deep in margin

Oh, NOW you warn me about the pitfalls of too much margin?!?

Thanks . . . better late than never I guess.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I'm not really getting excited for this recent move in the past hour........I'd put odds on the stock ending the day at 920, regardless of if the macro's go even higher.

 

[Cherry Wine]

I'm not really getting excited for this recent move in the past hour........I'd put odds on the stock ending the day at 920, regardless of if the macro's go even higher.

I like $930. Pretty bullish action across the board though - setting up nicely for a face ripper next week.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

I can only conclude from recent earnings and today's price action that the market is anticipating Tesla starting a web services business focused on ephemeral messaging that is not in the metaverse.

 

[Artful Dodger]

So I guess with da 'rona winding down (from the Market's pt-of-view), people don't need to buy Clorox and Fords anymore?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I like $930. Pretty bullish action across the board though - setting up nicely for a face ripper next week.

Man what I would give for a Berlin announcement over the weekend.......

 

[Artful Dodger]

I'm not really getting excited for this recent move in the past hour........I'd put odds on the stock ending the day at 920, regardless of if the macro's go even higher.

So, random-stress-disorder syndrome? Got any particular reason? Instead of the vagaries of your gut, at least post the max pain argument on a Friday afternoon, to blame MMs. Charts are always fun.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

This is on Bloomberg behind a paywall so I won't bother posting a link...

Vast DOJ Probe Looks at Almost 30 Short-Selling Firms and Allies​

The Justice Department is collecting a trove of information on dozens of investment firms and researchers engaged in short selling as part of a sweeping U.S. hunt for potential trading abuses, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

The Federal Bureau of Investigation seized computers from the home of prominent short seller Andrew Left, the founder of Citron Research, in early 2021, some of the people said. In more recent months, the Justice Department subpoenaed certain market participants seeking communications, calendars and other records relating to almost 30 investment and research firms, as well as three dozen individuals associated with them, the people said, asking not to be identified discussing confidential inquiries.

 

[Singuy]

I like $930. Pretty bullish action across the board though - setting up nicely for a face ripper next week.

Cory will be wrong one day...today is not that day.

Entire market scratching their heads as tech ignores the 10 year.

Headline from CNBC

Crazy tech stock moves this week shock Wall Street: 'None of this makes sense'

Amazon and Snap reversed Thursday's dramatic losses on Friday, continuing a volatile week for large cap tech stocks.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Snerruc]

5

Do we know if she still holds TSLA and/or TSLA options?

i believe it is her husband that holds options. However, that plus blind trusts are like believing in the tooth fairy.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Cory will be wrong one day...today is not that day.

Entire market scratching their heads as tech ignores the 10 year.

Headline from CNBC

Crazy tech stock moves this week shock Wall Street: 'None of this makes sense'

Amazon and Snap reversed Thursday's dramatic losses on Friday, continuing a volatile week for large cap tech stocks.

www.cnbc.com

Is it really that confusing? The market has bifurcated tech into the haves and have-nots. Those with weak growth or long runways to profitability have already been crushed. Pandemic stocks have already been crushed.

Meanwhile, a strong labor report = strong economy = strong earnings for all those tech companies that are already printing money, interest rate hikes be damned. At the same time, many companies are guiding for an easing of supply chain issues, which gives hope for easing inflationary pressures, which gives hope for the Fed being able to land the plane. Looking at it in this way, is it that surprising that cash waiting on the sideline would have the confidence to get back in at this point? (at least for awhile)

 

[Artful Dodger]

I’ll need to confirm, but a similar investment held under IFRS or Canadian GAAP would be revalued at each balance sheet date. With fluctuations impacting EPS. That is whether they sell the position or not.

The only difference on presentation between sold versus still held, is whether it appears under OCI or Net Income, but both flow to EPS.

Indeed, it seems quite clear now that U.S. companies consider financial assets such as stocks and bonds (which derive their value from contractual claims) as tangible assets. Thus stock would be subject to impairment charges, affecting the balance sheet and showing as a loss on the income statement.

There may be some wiggle room under GAAP if impairment is confirmed via annual testing rather than quarterly, but I suspect this standard is applied more to "goodwill" assets rather than stock equities.

TL;dr Amazon likedy faces about a $4B impairment charge in 2022Q1 if RIVN stock stays at its curent price of ~$60/share (vs $100 on Dec 31, 201).

Cheers!

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

So, random-stress-disorder syndrome? Got any particular reason? Instead of the vagaries of your gut, at least post the max pain argument on a Friday afternoon, to blame MMs. Charts are always fun.

Volume and the performance of TSLA compared to the macros.

Volume isn't nearly enough to counter MM's interaction if they want and as soon as TSLA approached 925, the spoofing/capping began even though the macro's continued higher.

I'd love to be wrong, but the ingredients are there for TSLA to be capped. Doesn't matter even in the short term. I'm seeing quite a few pieces of data that point to inflation continuing its decline from supply shortages and the jobs report strongly points to the economy being strong. I think the market has bottomed, though I don't expect a return to highs for a few months.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Bullish sign y'all!!

Tesla's market share is at risk of plunging: analyst

Rivals are coming for Tesla, ones one long-time auto analyst.

finance.yahoo.com

 

[Singuy]

Is it really that confusing? The market has bifurcated tech into the haves and have-nots. Those with weak growth or long runways to profitability have already been crushed. Pandemic stocks have already been crushed.

Meanwhile, a strong labor report = strong economy = strong earnings for all those tech companies that are already printing money, interest rate hikes be damned. At the same time, many companies are guiding for an easing of supply chain issues, which gives hope for easing inflationary pressures, which gives hope for the Fed being able to land the plane. Looking at it in this way, is it that surprising that cash waiting on the sideline would have the confidence to get back in at this point? (at least for awhile)

I don't think strong labor report = strong economy at this point in time(as we are not in a typical time of growth). I still believe the economy is on the brink of a recession. However we will most likely have a bull market and a recession at the same time(will blow more minds).

 

[WattsHappening]

I like $930. Pretty bullish action across the board though - setting up nicely for a face ripper next week.

Man what I would give for a Berlin announcement over the weekend.......

I contemplated writing some covered calls for next Friday. But I'm also hoping for the same as you two. So I held off.

Sorry all, as I'm sure me writing calls today would mean market moving news over the weekend and a face ripping rally next week.

 

[Artful Dodger]

This is on Bloomberg behind a paywall so I won't bother posting a link...

Vast DOJ Probe Looks at Almost 30 Short-Selling Firms and Allies​

The Justice Department is collecting a trove of information on dozens of investment firms and researchers engaged in short selling as part of a sweeping U.S. hunt for potential trading abuses, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

The Federal Bureau of Investigation seized computers from the home of prominent short seller Andrew Left, the founder of Citron Research, in early 2021, some of the people said. In more recent months, the Justice Department subpoenaed certain market participants seeking communications, calendars and other records relating to almost 30 investment and research firms, as well as three dozen individuals associated with them, the people said, asking not to be identified discussing confidential inquiries.

Surely Bloomberg got that wrong! It is the SEC which is the U.S. Federal Agency mandated with protecting investors:

"The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or the Commission is the national government regulatory agency charged with supervision over the corporate sector, the capital market participants, and the securities and investment instruments market, and the protection of the investing public."​

Guess not, huh? DOJ and FBI action then? They should raid some offices over at the SEC as well.

#SECdoYourJob

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I don't think strong labor report = strong economy at this point in time(as we are not in a typical time of growth). I still believe the economy is on the brink of a recession. However we will most likely have a bull market and a recession at the same time(will blow more minds).

I think we're just going to see a continuation of what we've seen for years now. Recession in the old parts of the economy, booming economy in others. The thing to watch is that the booming parts of the economy have grown to a scale where they're the driving force now.

Which is going to confuse a lot of old school economist and wall st old timers. The traditional metrics of measuring the health of the economy need to be thrown out the window.

 

[thesmokingman]

The SEC is useless though....

 

[Dangerous Fish]

Bullish sign y'all!!

Tesla's market share is at risk of plunging: analyst

Rivals are coming for Tesla, ones one long-time auto analyst.

finance.yahoo.com

Hmmmm... "Bank of America auto analyst John(son) Murphy"
I'm seeing a trend.