Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

Re “surprise out of China”, I don’t see where it is connect to their q4 production (in writing), which is all the discussion. Is this an assumption bc it’s end of quarter only? Maybe I missed something in all the tweets. Thanks.

 

[SmokyPeat]

This appears to be a major fire caused by a transformer explosion, and/or downed power lines, with at least two cities being evacuated at this point. High winds, ~110 MPH, have caused the fire to spread very rapidly. A little more information here:

Wildfires cause thousands of Colorado residents to evacuate

Strong winds reportedly brought down power lines and caused a transformer to explode.

metro.co.uk

110 mph winds are insane. I wonder if the fire itself is generating much of that wind energy. Maybe the high winds are what brought down the power lines.That can't be anything close to a normal weather occurrence.

 

[Singuy]

110 mph winds are insane. I wonder if the fire itself is generating much of that wind energy. Maybe the high winds are what brought down the power lines.That can't be anything close to a normal weather occurrence.

Yeah sounds like a firestorm has started. The place doesn't get 110mph wind naturally.

 

[jerry33]

110 mph winds are insane. I wonder if the fire itself is generating much of that wind energy. Maybe the high winds are what brought down the power lines.That can't be anything close to a normal weather occurrence.

When I was much younger, lightning struck a transformer across the street where our apartment was. It was quite a fireworks show. This was in Denver.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Re “surprise out of China”, I don’t see where it is connect to their q4 production (in writing), which is all the discussion. Is this an assumption bc it’s end of quarter only? Maybe I missed something in all the tweets. Thanks.

I'm not following the discussion now but the original tweet with that message came from an account a few days ago that only ever tweets about China numbers so that should be why that is assumed.

 

[MP3Mike]

There are over 130 service centers world wide
Tesla adds about 1 service center per month

If Tesla stops adding service centers, this would affect total delivery numbers by about 0.7% if Tesla choose not to use alternative method of deliveries(like at home deliveries).

I think you meant that there are over 630 stores/service centers world-wide. So only about a possible 0.15% impact assuming no remediation is done. (And they have been adding ~10/month.)

 

[Singuy]

I think you meant that there are over 630 stores/service centers world-wide. So only about a possible 0.15% impact assuming no remediation is done. (And they have been adding ~10/month.)

Haha you're right. I believe the 130ish is U.S only

 

[Krugerrand]

Demand problem.

Funny you should say this. As it happens the spouse and I went to the casino the other day because we just had to get out for a bit. All masked up, temp checks at the door, armed with disinfecting wipes we scoped out the machines (actually I did the scoping because I have a knack for this kind of thing) and sat down at two out of the way of other players. My first spin, I hit free games. And so it went for a few minutes with me just taking money from the house like candy from a baby while the spouse spun for snake eyes.

After my third free set of games, I felt it was time to move on. My spouse cashed out, but then I hit free games again. Eventually the spouse got tired of watching me play and so put the voucher back in the machine and bingo! Major jackpot of almost $1200 on a lousy 75c bet.

Point being, we left the casino a few hours later still up that jackpot amount and we’d yet to decide what to do with the money. You’ve solved the problem.

 

[Opus BC fan]

Yeah sounds like a firestorm has started. The place doesn't get 110mph wind naturally.

OT
The high wind is actually from an approaching front. Most of the front range is experiencing high winds now. Over 160 600 homes are gone. I assume the Tesla SC is gone. So far no documented loss of life. Hopefully, they were able to evacuate everyone (against all odds). This is tragic.

Edit: updated numbers

 

[SOULPEDL]

It’s a real long shot, but I’m considering the news out of China tomorrow isn’t about the prod numbers.

We’ll know soon enough, but I circle back to the new motor accepted for China use by MIIT, (which is simply the approval board for new vehicles and engines by China). Do we know where that smaller motor is headed yet? I haven’t hear anything since the tweet weeks ago.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

It’s a real long shot, but I’m considering the news out of China tomorrow isn’t about the prod numbers.

We’ll know soon enough, but I circle back to the new motor accepted for China use by MIIT, (which is simply the approval board for new vehicles and engines by China). Do we know where that smaller motor is headed yet? I haven’t hear anything since the tweet weeks ago.

It’s Dec sales numbers, there’s no need to speculate. It’s the only thing that Twitter account posts

 

[deffu]

It’s Dec sales numbers, there’s no need to speculate. It’s the only thing that Twitter account posts

Yeah. But The streets don’t take his number seriously, just like analysts don’t take troys numbers into consideration. But it’s bellwether of what’s coming on monday

 

[zach_]

I think there are enough crumbs to suggest a potential big beat out of China.

1. Oct China production was known to have a week of downtime, but production was 55,000.
2. Tesla China VP was reported to have said Shanghai was aiming for 500k production in 2021. It was taken back, but alternate interpretations (500k annual run rate, for example) don't make sense, so what else could have been meant?
3. Shipping deal suggesting potential for 700k cars out of Shanghai in 2022.
4. WuWa videos on youtube showing 3/Y cars leaving the factory at very high rates
5. Tesla Shanghai Analyst tweeting suggesting a big surprise, certainly regarding December sales.

I don't think anyone should draw particularly strong conclusions from any of these data points on their own. However when taken together it's hard to deny imo. I think their stretch goal for 2021 was 500k, and they get close, with production/sales near 75k for Dec.

 

[MXWing]

I predict Mama Cathie has one more day of selling TSLA this year and she will be done. <whew>

 

[SOULPEDL]

It’s Dec sales numbers, there’s no need to speculate. It’s the only thing that Twitter account posts

Yes I know that’s the very likely assumption which I just clarified above.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Additionally once the initial factory is approved the spotlight will fade and additional expansion should be less contested and require far easier adjustment permits.

Attitudes will change once monthly payroll for 10K employees starts hitting the retail shoppes and tax accounts.

 

[MXWing]

Attitudes will change once monthly payroll for 10K employees starts hitting the retail shoppes and tax accounts.

You would think.

People often work against their own self interest because they don't know, don't care to know or somehow make it a team sport to fight Elon.

If Elon loses, I win? (I being shorts, Lara Kolodny, Linnete Lopez, Chanos, GF Berlin Protestors, Twitter yes voters, etc)

 

[SOULPEDL]

I think there are enough crumbs to suggest a potential big beat out of China.

1. Oct China production was known to have a week of downtime, but production was 55,000.
2. Tesla China VP was reported to have said Shanghai was aiming for 500k production in 2021. It was taken back, but alternate interpretations (500k annual run rate, for example) don't make sense, so what else could have been meant?
3. Shipping deal suggesting potential for 700k cars out of Shanghai in 2022.
4. WuWa videos on youtube showing 3/Y cars leaving the factory at very high rates
5. Tesla Shanghai Analyst tweeting suggesting a big surprise, certainly regarding December sales.

I don't think anyone should draw particularly strong conclusions from any of these data points on their own. However when taken together it's hard to deny imo. I think their stretch goal for 2021 was 500k, and they get close, with production/sales near 75k for Dec.

If so, is it then at all possible for 1M total For 2021? Fremont pumping them out in Dec as well right? Tesla begging to sell Plaids recently, deliveries pulled in. I haven’t been following total of all factories for the year, but I do remember 1M as being a dream shot several moons ago, mostly out of this thread. Again I’m only asking as I dont know.

 

[Prunesquallor]

If so, is it then at all possible for 1M total For 2021? Fremont pumping them out in Dec as well right? Tesla begging to sell Plaids recently, deliveries pulled in. I haven’t been following total of all factories for the year, but I do remember 1M as being a dream shot several moons ago, mostly out of this thread. Again I’m only asking as I dont know.

Rob Maurer has production at:
Fremont Q4: 120,073
Shanghai Q4: 174,516
Total FY21: 919,171

1M probably too big a stretch.

 

[RobDickinson]

1M is probably a months worth too far.

Still we were thinking 750-800k at the start of the year ..