Sebas numbers haven't panned out for years running now. Right idea, but way ahead of actual production capacity.
There's simply not enough batteries in the pipeline to replace 100% of just 2030 ICE sales.
Let alone replace the 20 years of such sales it takes to replace all the existing ICE on the road.
This is one place where, unusually, Elons predictions are far more realistic than that of others.... ~30 million EVs a year by 2030 is doable with battery scaling as we see it happening now (with the majority being Tesla). Current vehicle sales, annually, are more than double 30 million though.
And there's approaching 2 billion ICE vehicles on the road to replace.
Even if we could have 30 million EVs per year available today you couldn't replace even 1/4 of those by 2030. And we won't have remotely near that many EVs per year selling this year. Or next. The battery factories to do so aren't built yet.
Elon remarked at the shareholder meeting this year it'll be decades before EVs has entirely replaced ICE in the worldwide fleet.... and he's probably got a more realistic handle on how possible that is than Seba.
