Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StarFoxisDown!]

Seems like it’s setting up a V shaped recovery once he’s done. Everyone will be watching the filings closely and the stock will probably start shooting up a day or two in advance of the expected end…

No doubt I would expect a sharp reversal when his selling is close to being done plus we'll get some upcoming positives like EV credit passage in House, Berlin and Texas news here in a bout 1-2 weeks. Wall St is just trying to drive it down as much as possible before those catalysts.

 

[Lessmog]

Couple more days and the good from Q3 results and Hertz will be completely nullified.

Seems like it’s setting up a V shaped recovery once he’s done. Everyone will be watching the filings closely and the stock will probably start shooting up a day or two in advance of the expected end…

Is there a saying, "Every cloud has a green-back lining"?
That might apply today.

 

[petit_bateau]

Benefits of opening up the supercharging network:

• Less chance of waiting in line, assuming that network scales in proportion with total number of users
  • This is counter-intuitive, but I have math to prove it.
    • Every station has a probability distribution of how many people are using it in a given time interval. I suspect that no one (except @jhm) wants to see the full math, but here's a summary.
      • Suppose Station 1 and Station 2 have peak demand in a 20 minute interval that approximately follows a Poisson probability distribution
      • Both stations are sized such that the average peak demand is 70% of the number of stalls
      • Station 1 has 10 stalls and 7 users on average at peak times
        • 9.9% likelihood of Station 1 having a wait time in a given 20 minute rush hour period
          • Excel formula: =1-POISSON.DIST(10,7,TRUE)
      • Station 2 has 30 stalls and 21 users on average
        • 2.4%likelihood of Station 2 having a wait time in a given 20 minute rush hour period
          • Excel formula: =1-POISSON.DIST(30,21,TRUE)
      • So, Station 2 is going to have 4x less chance of needing to wait in line in rush hour than Station 1 despite both stations having the same 70% average capacity factor!
      • In general, it can be shown that bigger stations with a proportionally bigger customer base always have less chance of hitting saturation, which is better for everyone
        • Or equivalently, a patch of several smaller stations in an small area experiences a similar effect
        • Alternatively, Tesla could design the network to maintain constant likelihood of waiting in line, but increase the average capacity factor, thus requiring fewer stalls per user for the same level of service. Or they could choose somewhere in the middle of these two extremes. Any way you look at it, scale makes the network better.

• Everyone who uses it must ins

Are you sure arrivals meet the Poisson assumptions ? I am not sure they do - as in the wiki example arrivals may violate Poisson in much the same way that the students do. Without access to the data (of actrual arrivals) to test for Poisson-compliance one cannot be sure.

Poisson distribution - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[gtrplyr1]

IF Austin is really going to product anything this year, we should hear something very soon. Time is running out and with the holidays approaching, there are not many weeks left.

The stock could really use some sort of good news at this point.

Cheers to the longs.

 

[BornToFly]

No good will come from his "fight" with Bernie, that's for sure. Not for shareholders anyways.

I'm hoping he tweets something along the lines of: "Stopped selling my shares because the stock price drop it caused was harming the mom&pop investors." Maybe then idiots like Bernie can put 2+2 together.

 

[jhm]

Not necessarily maximizing; by referencing the number of 10b shares, Elon allows for the possibility that some of the sales are from the exercise at 0 net profit (or negative at this point, but "washed"?) . Selling shares ahead of more option exercises does increase his tax bill though.

Do we know the tax lots or basis he's selling?

 

[jhm]

Did I drink heavily last night and totally forget?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1460014380331016203

Life support, stat.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I agree, but there is one very easy way to make sure this doesn't impact your shares or investments at all:

HODL.

Just ride it out like the speed bump it is. A month or so from now none of this will have mattered at all in the long term outlook for TSLA.

Before I get a lot of responses, please I'm in no way saying I'm selling or even remotely thinking of selling. In fact I'm looking at LEAPS with this continued drop.

BUT (and I've had this conversation here before and gotten a lot of disagreements), while I don't feel a CEO should go out of their way to pump a stock, a CEO also shouldn't be doing things to harm shareholders. And every shareholder is in different positions/situations in life which don't allow them to have the freedom I have to just hold until whenever I want.

Case in point, a friend is reaching out to me asking what I think the stock movement is going to be near-term because they need cash for a down payment. They've been a shareholder for many years, never sold a single share. This 25% drop for them means they have liquidate a lot more shares than they wanted. Yes every investor needs to ok with the money they have in a stock dropping at any time.....but they shouldn't afraid that their CEO will do actions that harm shareholders just to make a point.

I don't want to start a back n forth, so I'll just say I respect other opinions, this is just my own. I'm fortunate enough to ride with ups and downs and have no need for this money, but others aren't in that situation.

 

[MP3Mike]

In the Form 4 filings, they have been his oldest shares with the lowest basis. So literally, maximum tax paid.

That level of detail isn't in the filings. At this point he could have sold all of the shares he just received from his exercised options. (Though he pretty much said he was going for maximum tax.)

 

[insaneoctane]

Up, I think. Just a gut feeling.

Don't think things go up until Elon finishes selling

 

[Matias]

I'm hoping he tweets something along the lines of: "Stopped selling my shares because the stock price drop it caused was harming the mom&pop investors." Maybe then idiots like Bernie can put 2+2 together.

It's Bernie's fault that Musk has started selling? Has Bernie forced other billionaires to sell?

 

[Todd Burch]

It's Bernie's fault that Musk has started selling?

That's not what he said. Elon is trying to prove a point, that Bernie's theories on taxation are more hurtful than they are helpful. Unfortunately, we are the guinea pigs until the point's been made.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

The

I'm hoping he tweets something along the lines of: "Stopped selling my shares because the stock price drop it caused was harming the mom&pop investors." Maybe then idiots like Bernie can put 2+2 together.

I’m pretty sure this is more about making a point. I don’t think he’s concerned about the stock price.

 

[Drax7]

tax Appeasement strategy in full view.

short term supply/demand imbalance overcomes long term expectations ,
and besides the shares dilution, nothing fundamental has changed.

short term investors are collateral damage

 

[CorneliusXX]

Don't think things go up until Elon finishes selling

Agree, I think the main question is how far down will they drop. Could be a great time for some leverage once Elon is around 80% done selling.

 

[Beltsbear]

He may be minimizing the risk of a higher cap gains rate or new taxes on unrealized gains. Both become less effective politically when multi-billionaires trim back unrealized gains. Musk is killing the numerical argument for these proposals.

You understand during this time, Elon is increasing his ownership of TSLA not decreasing it? Elon will have to sell a lot more stock including the stock of other billionaires to kill the numerical argument for these proposals. Also, there is no shot of any of these proposals happening. There will not be enough votes now, and after 2022 there will be even less. Zero chance this happens. It's all posturing.

The final result, the stock drops unnecessarily because while Elon is a genius on cars and space, he is not on finances. The reason why big houses like GS get a 'cut' of private block sales is because ALL OTHER solutions are worse for basically everyone involved. If you don't give GS a little profit, you have poor execution on your sales (happening now) and lose even more. And you are not just spiting yourself. You are spiting all of your existing shareholders. And that is a problem. Even if we are prepared for volatility. And yes, I may pick up a few more shares, but this is not even close to the optimal outcome.

 

[woodisgood]

No doubt I would expect a sharp reversal when his selling is close to being done plus we'll get some upcoming positives like EV credit passage in House, Berlin and Texas news here in a bout 1-2 weeks. Wall St is just trying to drive it down as much as possible before those catalysts.

I guess the point I was trying to make is that the train - if driven by Wall St - will be forced to leave the station a little earlier than people are thinking because everyone’s waiting for the same train.

 

[Rarity]

That's not what he said. Elon is trying to prove a point, that Bernie's theories on taxation are more hurtful than they are helpful. Unfortunately, we are the guinea pigs until the point's been made.

I don't think it's so unfortunate. I'm happy to be the guinea pig and this is a good time to run the experiment.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

That's not what he said. Elon is trying to prove a point, that Bernie's theories on taxation are more hurtful than they are helpful. Unfortunately, we are the guinea pigs until the point's been made.

But what point is he going to prove? The woke mob going after him don’t own TSLA and don’t care if it drops. They probably want it to keep dropping to reduce Elon’s net worth. So in the end, I don’t think this will accomplish anything other than to hurt the people who actually believe in and support Tesla. While most of us here can HODL for many more years, I know some people who love the company but need to sell some shares short term. This turmoil is unrelated to Tesla (the business) and isn’t something they could have seen coming. It really sucks….

 

[Lessmog]

You understand during this time, Elon is increasing his ownership of TSLA not decreasing it? Elon will have to sell a lot more stock including the stock of other billionaires to kill the numerical argument for these proposals. Also, there is no shot of any of these proposals happening. There will not be enough votes now, and after 2022 there will be even less. Zero chance this happens. It's all posturing.

The final result, the stock drops unnecessarily because while Elon is a genius on cars and space, he is not on finances. The reason why big houses like GS get a 'cut' of private block sales is because ALL OTHER solutions are worse for basically everyone involved. If you don't give GS a little profit, you have poor execution on your sales (happening now) and lose even more. And you are not just spiting yourself. You are spiting all of your existing shareholders. And that is a problem. Even if we are prepared for volatility. And yes, I may pick up a few more shares, but this is not even close to the optimal outcome.

I believe some would disagree on that bolded part. How did he make his first hundreds of millions?