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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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#304,582
A) the highest single day loss was tuesday.
B) the highest single day gain was a few weeks ago!!

seems silly to frame things in the perspective of A) while totally blocking out B) ….it was literally just a few weeks ago!!!

sure i dabbled a bit and took advantage of the downdraft.
but a few of the many things i’m currently intrigued about, aside from the elephant in the room looming production ramps at GF4 and 5, should anyone care…

- 4680 “industry standard” leverage pierre ferragu spoke about with rob maurer
- the first million cars subscribed for fsd at $200 a month
- the first million insurance customers at $800-1000 per year
- how many 4680s leftover for TE to use in storage products, and how long before TE is meaningful part of income (2 years? 4 years?, more? )
 
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#304,584
sroh said:
Parents should not allow their children to drive non-Teslas. Just sayin...
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Lol, I predicted this comment was coming. Just a question of timing and dollars between the kids and us. I will say she was is smarter than her Dad around investing. She bought 1-2 shares back before the split:).

P.S. We bought our grandson one when I purchased my second S. Posted a pic in Tesla moments (post #3333) years ago because it is “special.” Can’t figure out to copy it here correctly under Spoiler Alert. And it’s too off topic to paste it here, because it’s not yet the weekend, and @AudubonB has enough to do w/o extra work. It’s almost Christmas - maybe he will get some elves.
 
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#304,585
StealthP3D said:
Re: Elon's share sales

I have no doubt there is a lot of pent up demand for TSLA shares so Elon's sales didn't (and don't) concern me in the least. The company is worth exactly the same amount whether he owns the 10% he said he would sell or someone else owns them. To my way of thinking this thread has been seriously derailed over what should be nothing more than temporary volatility based mostly on the psychological impact that Elon was selling a larger position than was necessary simply to exercise his options and pay taxes. The actual price impact based upon supply and demand is so temporary it's not even funny. Whatever we lose based on that is returned in coming days/weeks. Like I said, the company is worth whatever it's worth and that is based upon current and future performance, not who owns the shares.

That said, I doubt Elon has sold the entire approx. 17M shares already. But not to worry, Elon is not going to crash the price, he will sell into strength. I'm not going to lose a minute of sleep over this but we will know the selling is likely complete when we see the filings that indicate he divested about 10%. I haven't seen that yet (and I'm not sitting on the edge of my seat waiting for it). Elon is not stupid. Focus on the company's performance, not the sideshow.

On a related note, just an observation that will hopefully help some people deal with volatility in the future. I am shocked at how many investors here use the language "I lost $xxxxxxxx in the last (x) days". I mean, I really don't think people here were selling at the bottom and to use the language indication a loss of money just shows me those people are thinking about investing in an unproductive way. You only lose money when you sell at a loss. You can only claim it as a loss on your taxes if you actually take a loss. Same with a gain. It's unrealized until you sell. The "losses" most people were mentioning were "losses" of unrealized gains. Big deal! Shares are not money, they are fractional ownership.

We know that the exact amount someone will pay us for those shares varies from hour to hour and from day to day. It's not a secret or a big deal unless you are planning to buy or sell in that specific timeframe. But I trust that most people here have protected themselves from being forced to liquidate shares at inopportune times. Therefore it's not only incorrect to view temporary fluctuations in your account value as "losses", it's unproductive to your performance as investors. Someone claiming they "lost money" because the share price went through a period of temporary volatility just exposes them as not knowing what they are doing. Language matters because it indicates how a person thinks about their investments. Yes, everyone has to be a newbie at some point but the more quickly one grows as an investor and learns how to think about their investments more productively, the more profitable they can become over time. Learning to use more productive and more accurate language is the first step to thinking that way.

Sorry if this sounds like a lecture but I only mean it with the best of intentions.
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IMHO, EM already dumped all the shared that he intended to sell (~20M shares). There were sharp drops with high volume at opening on Tuesday and Weds. Its probably block sales by EM's agent. Usually if you want to sell, you want to do it as quickly as possible. Especially for EM, we all know, patience is his strongest suit!
 
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#304,588
Soo, umm, is that classy strong young man from Jersey still waiting for TSLA to drop to $850? I'm worried that he missed the train with all that gloating he was doing yesterday.

I'm sure once it's clear TSLA is on a steady positive trajectory again, he'll log in under a third account and talk about how he bought back in at $990, lol.
 
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#304,589
insaneoctane said:
For Rivian investors, based on their closing price, they now have the same market cap as Tesla did in January 2020 (ignoring April 2020 due to Covid). Is Rivian, today, in the same position as Tesla was in January 2020? Hmm. I'll keep my money divested in TSLA.
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No No, Rivian has a higher marketcap than Tesla from 4/6/2020. By that date, Tesla had

1. Delivered more than 1 million cars
2. 4 model of cars for sale, solar roof, mega pack, power pack, power wall, solar panel, and 1 million pre-orders for cybertruck
3. one of the largest super charging network in the U.S, EU, and China
4. 4 mega factories spanning two continents
5. over 100 service centers
6. Guidance of of 20M cars run rate by 2030, accounting only half of their revenue

Rivian as of today has

1. About 100 deliveries
2. 4 service centers
3. 1 product
4. 48k truck pre orders and 100k van pre orders
5. Guidance of 1M cars production run rate by 2030
6. Nothing but execution risk

Buying Rivian(or insert any EV start ups) based on Tesla's execution is a recipe for disaster.

Bonus, Tesla can fulfill Rivian's enter pre-order book in 1.5 months today.
 
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#304,590
Tommy O said:
I got another car (delivered to my driveway) today. It's a Tesla. It's my third Tesla purchase. I haven't purchased cars from anyone but Tesla since 2012. I'm sure purchasing exclusively one brand is totally normal and nothing like how I got an iPhone in 2009 and have only purchased iPhones since then.

Legacy will totally catch up soon.
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Last year: “People are loyal to Ford/ GM/ Ram/ VW/ BMW/ Toyota”.

This year: “Everyone wants a Tesla”.

Seems like 2021 is the year everyone realized that they should buy an EV and started getting serious about buying a Tesla. Never seen such a plain and obvious inflection or paradigm shift in my life. Even the iPhone/ smartphone switch was more subtle than this.
 
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#304,593
JRP3 said:
I'm a shareholder and voted yes. I don't freak out over short term moves and realized the sale would create a buying opportunity. Didn't move low enough for me to buy but many others obviously jumped in.
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Obviously a much better buying opportunity than anytime ever prior to two weeks ago.
 
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#304,597
MP3Mike said:
Unless I am missing something it looks like all of the forms, from 11/8 to 11/10, only covers ~4.5 million shares sold. Does that mean that there are ~12 million more shares to be sold?
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the form 4's cover Mondays sales, there will be new forms for Tuesday where we suspect most of the selling happened.

These wont be filed until friday afik
 
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#304,598
 
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#304,600
BTW Aussies have claimed Elon's prize money for CO2 capture...

The students, who have developed a method of extracting carbon dioxide from the atmosphere that can be powered entirely by solar power, secured the US$250,000 (A$338,000) prize, awarded by Tesla chief Elon Musk as part of the Sustainable Innovation Forum in Glasgow.
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reneweconomy.com.au

Glasgow Brief: Australia pressed to do more as it lands fifth fossil

Australia under pressure over coal use, and earns a fifth fossil award, while US and China issue rare agreement on tackling climate change.
reneweconomy.com.au reneweconomy.com.au
 
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