Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[CyberDutchie]

My first call options expired worthlessly last week. I’m afraid many other calls I hold with Jan ‘20 and Jan ‘21expiry might face the same fate... I have $320, $365, $385 strikes and paid a pretty penny for those years back when TSLA was trading somewhat comfortably in the $300+ range.

Never ever would I have thought with where the company is today in terms of sales growth and maturity that we are back in the mid $200’s...

I keep my hope on a summer rally to get rid of all my calls (they’re all on margin—about $240K) at break-even. $400 seems a pipe dream, I very much doubt it will ever happen.

 

[KarenRei]

This is my approach. I have lowered the cost basis on my TSLA shares by about $35 per share via covered calls thus far, going back just three months -- that's even taking into account some missteps where I've taken some losses on those sold calls. I also carry some monthly put options at strike prices that should cover my initial investment in the event of a black swan event; I only wish I had bought them when the underlying was at higher prices (a mistake from which I've learned).

I unfortunately started the year on a leverage-increasing strategy toward the Q4 report, predicting (rightly) that Tesla was again going to show a profit and strong cash flow and bust the bear argument that Q3 was a one-time rigged profit. Didn't count on macro-hell, Deepak leaving during the call, the SEC going after Musk for literally repeating what he said in the ER, and everything snowballing into a renewed cycle of short-selling and its associated FUD (aka, any Tesla news whatsoever = "Tesla is doooooomed!!!"). That really, really hurt.

I've been playing it a lot smarter since. Whenever I see a lot of uncertainty and doubt, like we've had recently, I've been selling short-term covered calls... and then when the stock goes down, buying them back and reselling to a lower strike. Also, now that bullish sentiment has started to recoup in advance of deliveries, I've been selling some put spreads. I love the fact that every day that the stock sits here and keeps wobbling - while everyone awaits deliveries and the outcome of the SEC case - everything I sold devalues - and will all be expired or repurchased before the deliveries report and any timeperiod in which the judge could rule on the SEC case.

Nothing is foolproof, of course. I pay for this with the risk of unexpected market news causing a spike beyond where I've capped my upside, or a plunge (both devaluing my assets and costing me money on the PUT spreads... the latter concern me more, so I've kept them to a minimum).

 

[samppa]

wtf, I just saw a really weird ad on Tv that had a Tesla.

 

[capster]

Just bought 186 shares and now have 536 total across regular / IRA / Roth accounts. Please tell me I'm smart and this is not going to blow up in my face.

You’re very smart and this won’t blow up in your face (imho).

Be patient and remember "a watched pot never boils."

[edit: I agree with menifeer above. ]

 

[Tenable]

8 disagrees and no agrees!? Thought I was stating the obvious. I'd love to hear your arguments disagreers.

I wasnt one of them. But for starters your math, at $100 per share it would be 17BN not 1.7bn. For the (seemingly unpopular) record though, I do believe Elon's twitter gaffes have cost myself and other shareholders an immense amount of money.

 

[Mobius484]

wtf, I just saw a really weird ad on Tv that had a Tesla.

Details?

 

[RobStark]

Funny you should mention that:

VW are still up to their extremely dirty anti health anti environment tricks.

They are lobbying for a EUR5k German EV subsidy to be limited to vehicles less than 4.65 metres in length. For cars longer than this they want the subsidy to be just EUR2k.

This is obviously a completely arbitrary policy created specifically to target Tesla (Model 3 is 4.69 metres). Given Model 3 is the only mass produced affordable EV capable of making a significant dent in pollution deaths and CO2 emissions in the near term, this is VW yet again putting their own financial interests ahead of people's health.

Now available exclusively in Germany the snout nosed Model 3 and Y with shaved front and rear bumpers. Removing 4 cm of length.

 

[shlokavica22]

My first call options expired worthlessly last week. I’m afraid many other calls I hold with Jan ‘20 and Jan ‘21expiry might face the same fate... I have $320, $365, $385 strikes and paid a pretty penny for those years back when TSLA was trading somewhat comfortably in the $300+ range.

Never ever would I have thought with where the company is today in terms of sales growth and maturity that we are back in the mid $200’s...

I keep my hope on a summer rally to get rid of all my calls (they’re all on margin—about $240K) at break-even. $400 seems a pipe dream, I very much doubt it will ever happen.

Something doesn't add up here. When did you buy the Jan'21 leaps? Or is it just a figure of speech?

 

[bdy0627]

It's BS. Temps were in the low teen's here in the PNW for 2-3 weeks in a row in Feb and I never got up to 500 kw/mile in my 3 AWD. My daily commute is 12-14 miles going through hills and I averaged 360 kw/mile during those 3 weeks of below freezing temps.

I wouldn't get hung up on the details of whether the range loss is 30% or 50% since it really varies, but don't disregard the idea that you will get MUCH less range in cold weather. Depending upon the conditions - temp, wind, road - you are quite likely to experience range loss of somewhere around 30-40%. My wife drives our 100D model X almost daily between Appleton and Milwaukee, roughly 130 miles each way. When it is colder here (-10 to 20 f), she loses 30-40% of her range. It's enough loss that she has to drive 20 minutes out of her route to go to a supercharger south of Milwaukee in the winter. She does not need to do that during the warmer months since there is a SC in Oshkosh, which is along the upper part of her route. She simply cannot make it back to Oshkosh on a full battery during very cold days. She charges her X to 100% (295 miles) daily to minimize range anxiety. I think if we had gotten the shorter range X, she would mostly just drive her old Acura MDX in the winter due to the severe range loss. For those who commute long distances in cold areas, range loss is very substantial in the winter. We even keep our cars in a heated garage, so the car is about 65 degrees when she sets out from home.

 

[ZachF]

Now available exclusively in Germany the snout nosed Model 3 and Y with shaved front and rear bumpers. Removing 4 cm of length.

They're calling it the Model 2.9

 

[GOVA]

wtf, I just saw a really weird ad on Tv that had a Tesla.

Would you be so kind and tell us what it was about? Link?

 

[mongo]

I wouldn't get hung up on the details of whether the range loss is 30% or 50% since it really varies, but don't disregard the idea that you will get MUCH less range in cold weather. Depending upon the conditions - temp, wind, road - you are quite likely to experience range loss of somewhere around 30-40%. My wife drives our 100D model X almost daily between Appleton and Milwaukee, roughly 130 miles each way. When it is colder here (-10 to 20 f), she loses 30-40% of her range. It's enough loss that she has to drive 20 minutes out of her route to go to a supercharger south of Milwaukee in the winter. She does not need to do that during the warmer months since there is a SC in Oshkosh, which is along the upper part of her route. She simply cannot make it back to Oshkosh on a full battery during very cold days. She charges her X to 100% (295 miles) daily to minimize range anxiety. I think if we had gotten the shorter range X, she would mostly just drive her old Acura MDX in the winter due to the severe range loss. For those who commute long distances in cold areas, range loss is very substantial in the winter. We even keep our cars in a heated garage, so the car is about 65 degrees when she sets out from home.

Any chance she could compare the energy usage for the same mileage on the outbound (warm pack) and home bound (cold pack) legs?

 

[jerry33]

Governments should be incentivised to build out this infrastructure to stop its people dying for no reason, however I have least faith in governments delivering on this.

The problem with democracies is that they attract politicians. If a way could be developed to have a democracy without politicians, that would help a lot.

 

[bdy0627]

My first call options expired worthlessly last week. I’m afraid many other calls I hold with Jan ‘20 and Jan ‘21expiry might face the same fate... I have $320, $365, $385 strikes and paid a pretty penny for those years back when TSLA was trading somewhat comfortably in the $300+ range.

Never ever would I have thought with where the company is today in terms of sales growth and maturity that we are back in the mid $200’s...

I keep my hope on a summer rally to get rid of all my calls (they’re all on margin—about $240K) at break-even. $400 seems a pipe dream, I very much doubt it will ever happen.

Quite likely you will get the opportunity to sell them on a climb at least back up to the mid trading range if not higher. If not then TSLA's trading pattern will have changed dramatically from history.

 

[VValleyEV]

What do you think of the reported leak last year of a refresh scheduled for this year? Bezel-free horizontal screens, etc.

Image with the steering wheel and screen removed (e.g. to see the secondary screen better)

Fwed seemed convinced of its authenticity, but who knows.

I have been thinking that something like the above is a great idea for Tesla, and I will claim without any evidence that it is without having seen the article or photos.

My take: the horizontal/landscape mode and higher position of screen make a huge amount of sense to me, Not just more consistent with M3 but means less movement and time to glance away from the road ahead. With the retention of some amount of local dash behind the wheel, it preserves the “flagship” status. I love my MS but am not fond of moving my glance so low to do stuff like check calendar or turn on rear camera etc. Some MS owners may get peeved if a new horizontal S/X screen is not larger/better in some way than the M3, but that doesn’t sound difficult to do without breaking the bank.

 

[M3Rider]

My first call options expired worthlessly last week. I’m afraid many other calls I hold with Jan ‘20 and Jan ‘21expiry might face the same fate... I have $320, $365, $385 strikes and paid a pretty penny for those years back when TSLA was trading somewhat comfortably in the $300+ range.

Never ever would I have thought with where the company is today in terms of sales growth and maturity that we are back in the mid $200’s...

I keep my hope on a summer rally to get rid of all my calls (they’re all on margin—about $240K) at break-even. $400 seems a pipe dream, I very much doubt it will ever happen.

Yeah. I think there's too much manipulation going on with the stock, so fundamentals don't apply.
In fact, it feels like stock is used for "horse racing betting" - you get paid a lot if you bet on the least likely outcome and collect money from everybody else. Wish that somebody like SEC had interest in investigating irregularities and apply punishment to manipulators. Instead, the SEC is in the bed with shorts causing us more damage, so this is hopeless.

I think that with more Tesla owners they will buy stock more and it will turn around. OEMs should be really hurting a few years from now, so this can't go forever. At some point everybody will see what's coming. It might be a couple of years later than we think though...

 

[CyberDutchie]

Something doesn't add up here. When did you buy the Jan'21 leaps? Or is it just a figure of speech?

Rolled over when Jan ‘21 became available..

 

[jerry33]

You're smart and this is not going to blow up in your face...

As long as you don't panic. TSLA goes up and down wildly. Always has, and until Tesla becomes a dominant force, it always will.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

It is? Often these things are funded by the utility itself as part of demand leveling programs.

Ya, I looked into it before claiming it back when it was $500. Different utilities do different things with it(I know SDG&E knocks a certain amount off each bill instead), but it’s a state program.

 

[bdy0627]

Any chance she could compare the energy usage for the same mileage on the outbound (warm pack) and home bound (cold pack) legs?

Sure, I'll get her to check that on her next trip down and report back.