Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TheWalkingDad]

I'm not sure how accurate that article is though?

They state Tesla is pushing out delivery dates due to the chip shortage, but we all know Tesla is producing more cars than ever before currently, and that the delivery dates are pushed out due to DEMAND, not the chip shortage.

If they got Tesla wrong how many of the other auto makers did they get wrong too?

They were pretty much factual on every car manufacturer except Tesla. I think its safe to say that the demand for Tesla cars is definately there. But one could argue that Tesla would have had higher output if they weren't impacted by the chip shortage. Elon pretty much said during 2Q call i think it was that they had to re-program to utilize different chips due to supply constraints; that has a definite impact on production...

 

[traxila]

I'm not sure how accurate that article is though?

They state Tesla is pushing out delivery dates due to the chip shortage, but we all know Tesla is producing more cars than ever before currently, and that the delivery dates are pushed out due to DEMAND, not the chip shortage.

If they got Tesla wrong how many of the other auto makers did they get wrong too?

As the old adage says, if I may paraphrase:

”You realise how horrendous and useless journalism is when they write about a topic you know intimately.”

Yeah, 99% of so called journalism might as well be some random ignoramus posting on Twitter with the usual headline certainty that the medium lends itself to so well. Just grab the tweet and run with it is the fact-checking of the day.

 

[TheWalkingDad]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1441420432666595343

More FUD debunked.

 

[Big Time]

Good luck today everyone. Sitting at what I would call last resistance before ATH

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Reason for share price jump? Chip factories under construction...

This is just something we haven't seen in quite some time, it's called volume. Big boys are looking to jump on board before what's obviously a blockbuster 3Q/4Q earnings run.......and there's no shares available.

It's gonna take a LOT of money to push this thing below $760 if we get any semblance of maintained volume this afternoon. Lets see if MM's deem it a worthwhile effort. Either way.....we eventually win.

 

[jbcarioca]

But Stellantis pulled out of that pooling agreement, didn't they?

Tavares said they would not need the pool in may, but AFAIK they've not actually left thus far.

Stellantis to hit emissions target without Tesla's help, says CEO

Franco-Italian carmaker Stellantis (STLA.MI), expects to achieve its European carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions targets this year without environmental credits bought from Tesla (TSLA.O), its CEO said in an interview published on Tuesday.

www.reuters.com

Without doubt the PSA side has had excellent progress, but whether they actually drop out or not so far seems in question since he also said this:

Stellantis Says European CO2 Rules Threaten Auto Ownership, But Mitigation Expected

Europe’s plan to boost electric car sales at the expense of traditional ones will price average buyers out of the market, according to Stellantis, but EU rules are likely to be diluted when it becomes apparent the automotive industry faces existential problems.

www.forbes.com

and more recently this Stellantis press release:

Stellantis Intensifies Electrification While Targeting Sustainable Double-Digit Adjusted Operating Income Margins in the Mid-term

Stellantis Intensifies Electrification While Targeting Sustainable Double-Digit Adjusted Operating Income Margins in the Mid-term

www.stellantis.com

So, maybe there is still 2021 pooling in play. from the Peugeot side they've had some constraints on the e-208 and the SUV's too. Separately there have been major developments about the future at Stellantis, as indicated in part in the press release above.

Perhaps the question really is mostly how much the chip shortages and other issues may have had on Stellantis aggressive plans for 2021.

Sorry for excessive detail, but it is unclear exactly what is happening with pooling despite the Tavares May pronouncement.

 

[ZachF]

Oh... hello!

 

[kbM3]

Somebody already posted this video, but something about Mayur’s focus on ROIC and comparison of Tesla’s 23% to Apple’s 40% bothered me and I believe I figured it out.

ROIC on EXISTING (already deployed) capital (like Apple) is not that pertinent.

E.g. Assume another company (Apple Prime) has 2.5X more capital deployed than Apple but only has a 20% ROI vs Apple’s 40%, but is identical in every other way. Apple Prime should be more highly valued, because the cash flow would be greater.

Apple OBVIOUSLY cannot get a 40% ROI on NEW capital deployment, because if they could, they would immediately halt buybacks, dividends, deplete their bank account and borrow as much as possible to invest that new capital at a 40% rate of return

So ROEC (Return on existing capital) is just not important. Nobody cares about how much capital you had to deploy to get your present cash flows. Only the size of the cash flows and your present debt/cash balance matters.

So while Tesla has 23% ROEC, that’s not important. What IS important is their RONC (Return on New Capital).

Supposedly GF Shanghai Phase 1 only cost $1B. At 250k units per year and $10k gross profits / unit, that’s a staggering 250% gross profit return on that capital. I would imagine net cash flows from that factory would be a huge portion of that as OpEx shouldn’t be that high for that factory alone and/or China operations. Note: I believe GF Berlin and Austin are not that cheap, so I wouldn’t expect that RONC.

So RONC is one of the largest determinants on growth rate. And it is growth rate that is important! I believe Mayur mentioned legacy auto gets 10% RONC, but since new capital costs them 10%, they have no motivation to expand.

So ROEC is an historical measurement that is only important in so far as it helps predict RONC, which is EXTREMELY important as well as the total addressable market which helps decide how long a very high RONC can continue. In Tesla’s case, the addressable market for transport and energy is GIGANTIC, so they have a huge runway, which becomes infinite if they solve TeslaBot.

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Rumour is FSD 11 will just tell you to do the driving and criticise you when you get things wrong.

The settings page will offer three levels of driving critique: “constructive,” “gasps & groans” and “full on sarcasm”

 

[MP3Mike]

Tavares said they would not need the pool in may, but AFAIK they've not actually left thus far.

No they separated their pool. see: https://circabc.europa.eu/sd/a/c616f73f-9c3f-49ee-8f27-8b081d3212b7/M1 pooling list 22.06.2021.pdf

The 2020 pool:

The 2021 pool:

 

[Bet TSLA]

Apple OBVIOUSLY cannot get a 40% ROI on NEW capital deployment, because if they could, they would immediately halt buybacks, dividends, deplete their bank account and borrow as much as possible to invest that new capital at a 40% rate of return

No. This kind of logic works only if Apple's only purpose is to make the maximum profit. It isn't, and never has been. Same is true of Tesla. This is why Wall Street so utterly fails to understand either of these companies.

 

[jbcarioca]

No they separated their pool. see: https://circabc.europa.eu/sd/a/c616f73f-9c3f-49ee-8f27-8b081d3212b7/M1 pooling list 22.06.2021.pdf

The 2020 pool:
View attachment 713610

The 2021 pool:
View attachment 713611

Thanks for that correction. I missed it.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Now we come to a classic "mule's dilemma". Do we rationally sell our 10/8 $800c @ +40% today or go for the big bucks and wait for 3Q P&D?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Huge amount of volume there that was separate from any other stock moves/volumes. Sadly......that volume is now disappearing again. Shucks.....I was like "Is this the day we finally get a big up day on 30+ million volume??!?"

 

[JohnnyEnglish]

Tesla's electric motor design work is done at an Engineering Center at the University of Athens in Greece.

Elon Musk to open Tesla R&D plant in Greece

Billionaire entrepreneur’s electric car company to set up engineering facility in Athens

www.theguardian.com

Cheers!

Thanks for the correction - now just have to find something else the Romans have done for us

 

[lascavarian]

Now we come to a classic "mule's dilemma". Do we rationally sell our 10/8 $800c @ +40% today or go for the big bucks and wait for 3Q P&D?

Or even just wait for Monday…

 

[Discoducky]

Now we come to a classic "mule's dilemma". Do we rationally sell our 10/8 $800c @ +40% today or go for the big bucks and wait for 3Q P&D?

WWBD? Let it ride!

 

[ZeApelido]

You guys are overthinking it.

Elon's secretary accidentally signed him up for the STLA conference and not the TSLA one.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Norway on track to phase out new gas car sales in just 7 months - nearly 3 years ahead of what was already the world's most ambitious target

Norway is the country others look to when it comes to zero-emission vehicle adoption. The high number of plug-in vehicle sales is thanks to the county’s ambitious target and related incentives to phase out the […]

driveteslacanada.ca

According to new vehicle registration data from the Road Traffic Information Council (OFV), new petrol and diesel car registered in the first 8 months of 2021 amounted to just 4.93% and 4.73% of total registrations.

That compares to 2017 when fossil fuel burning cars made up more than 25%.

If the trend over the last 4 years continues, new petrol and diesel car sales will reach near zero by April 2022 – just 7 months away

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Now we come to a classic "mule's dilemma". Do we rationally sell our 10/8 $800c @ +40% today or go for the big bucks and wait for 3Q P&D?

YOLO...wait...forgot this was TMC and not WSB