Gotta wait another week.
Oh rly
Oh rly
Last edited:
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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RobDickinson
Active Member
Only if Tesla has some way to shift the state of the at forwards, that would be cool but its somewhat unlikely, its not an industry that has been slow to innovate.
fundamentally how does such an amorphous meta variable like IV suddenly move in such a coordinated fashion? You can’t directly buy/sell IV so how does the market suddenly decide to rapidly revalue it? My assumption here is some big money started selling off call/put positions. Perhaps most of the selling was puts which would help explain a pop in underlying and then there is just some variety of correlation in IV across all tranches. That’s what I’m going with. Someone sold a lot of puts.
So, it looks like v10 FSD limited Beta is going to be released on the 10th, and 10.1 wide release a couple of weeks later on the 24th.
I suspect it will slip into October, but nonetheless interesting to speculate on when Tesla will count the unearned FSD revenue, most of which should be the US anyways (going per the take rate by geography). Wondering what the @The Accountant has in his latest model.
I suspect it will slip into October, but nonetheless interesting to speculate on when Tesla will count the unearned FSD revenue, most of which should be the US anyways (going per the take rate by geography). Wondering what the @The Accountant has in his latest model.
pitabun
Member
Well with recent tweets Elon doesn't seem publicly worried about the NHTSA investigations. Days like today make me question the amount of money I have riding in TSLA. If they get the wings of autopilot clipped or altered, how does that effect the stock price?
RobDickinson
Active Member
Hopefully Ap and FSD are developed and validated with a nice clean process that should stand scrutiny, I would be upset otherwise.
ByeByeJohnny
Active Member
Well. Blue Origin did it to Nasa just last week.
Blue Origin's lawsuit against the US government is being delayed for a week, partly because the DOJ had trouble converting documents into PDFs
The Accountant
Active Member
At the moment, I don't have any amount in my forecast for the recognition of FSD revenue that Tesla has currently deferred on the balance sheet.
The potential amount to Revenue is $1.3B.
I'm stuck on the word "Beta"
Going to copy other members who may remember the criteria that Tesla used in the past to recognize some of the FSD revenue when features were delivered (e.g. Summon, Traffic Light and Stop Sign Control, etc.)
@EVNow @Doggydogworld @Thekiwi @st_lopes
My question is: "can Tesla recognize (some or all) Deferred FSD revenue when v10 Beta is released or do they need to wait for a "Production" version?
RobDickinson
Active Member
Half the cars software is beta I am sure they have recognised some revenue from it
Very suitable, not sure what contractor is supporting NHTSA but they might dump into relativity or something like that. Its not going to be that much data though so Access would be fine I would think. Searchable, easy to share and collaborate with among experts and attorneys. Not a typical discovery database though. Relativity is the largest but lots of smaller entities and they all provide similar functionality.
Last time I looked at the details NHTSA asked for the data in a Microsoft Access database.
mblakele
FSD Beta (99)
New thread:
teslamotorsclub.com
Drop in if you'd like to discuss anything related to the upcoming AGM, especially the merits of the various agenda items.
2021-10-07 Tesla Annual General Meeting
Let's make this a place to discuss voting on the agenda items for the 2021 AGM. From the annual report: We are pleased to inform you that our 2021 Annual Meeting of Stockholders (the “2021 Annual Meeting”) will be held on Thursday, October 7, 2021, at 2:30 p.m. Pacific Time, at Tesla’s Fremont...
teslamotorsclub.com
Drop in if you'd like to discuss anything related to the upcoming AGM, especially the merits of the various agenda items.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Yeah...no.
We know from AI Day the D1 is a 7 nm chip- AMAT doesn't even have the capability of making anything that size, let alone selling "printers" that do it.
TSMC can though-(with a many-multi-billion dollar fab, not "chip printers") and multiple sources reported that's who's making it a while ago.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
All FSD related features Tesla has delivered has been Beta - but Tesla continues to recognize revenue as they deliver new features.
So, I expect major chunks of revenue to be recognized when the "button" appears for City NOA a.k.a. FSD Beta wide release. Ofcourse, it would be only for US and as such, not all FSD revenue will be recognized. They may also hold some money back because they have to continue to work on FSD to make it better till actual release without the Beta tag (which may take years).
MartinAustin
Active Member
"Of course, one reason why Tesla continues to sell more EVs than anyone else is that it built its own charging network in the US, in China, and even in Europe. And as it continues to grow, Tesla is going to quickly catch up to and surpass several automakers that might surprise you. With its assembly plants in Fremont and Shanghai, Tesla can currently make about a million vehicles a year. As Tesla’s new plants in Texas and Berlin come on stream, they’ll have the capacity to make another million vehicles, once they get up to line speed. So here’s our Autoline Insight: some time next year, Tesla is going to surpass Mazda and Mitsubishi in total production. And by the end of next year, Tesla could be at a run rate that will push it past BMW. You know, if you think that Tesla gets a lot of media coverage now… wait until it surpasses BMW."
The Accountant
Active Member
Thanks - that's very helpful.
See excerpt from Tesla's Q2 10Q filing below. Tesla has $2.1B deferred on the Balance Sheet for FSD, Supercharger access, internet connectivity and OTA updates. I'm pretty certain the lion's share of this 2.1B is related to FSD.
The 10Q also states that Tesla expects to recognize to revenue/earnings $1.32B of the $2,1B in the next 12 months.
I would estimate a large piece of the $1.32B would come to earnings when the Button is released. Maybe $800m to $1B?
The beauty of Tesla is how many options it has to grow in to a multi trillion dollar business. Autonomy is one option. It’s one that comes with a crazy multiplier, but I find it gets WAY too much attention considering Tesla can (and in my view, will) achieve multi trillion status with or without it. That said, I’ll be retired many times over if they do solve autonomy. Otherwise only retired a couple times over.
Agree with this assessment. I think if the button is broadly available to all users who purchased FSD (as opposed to limited pool of people), then they’ve satisfied what would be needed to start recognizing deferred revenues.
@The Accountant calling out 10-Q language is also a good reminder that every time Tesla includes free subscription or supercharging with a car sale that it needs to defer part of the purchase price and recognize it over the life of the benefit. Not overly material, but does mean we may always see deferred revenue balances as more services get added to the fleet.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
If history is any indication, FSD will be in beta for many years if not forever. Elon has said they like to keep it marked as a beta to help ensure that users stay alert. Deferred revenue will definitely be collected before it comes out of beta status, I'm 100% confident of that.
There's no product called a "chip printer". Chips are built on a fab line that has about 20-30 specialized machines in an ultra clean room with lots of toxic chemicals, and associated support machinery. Spin coaters, lithography machines, chemical vapor deposition machines, electron microscopes for destructive testing and validation, specialized ovens, etc.
I could believe that Tesla has invested in tech to build the D1 chip's ultra integrated 1cu ft blade (which contains 25 D1 chips along with power electronics, high density communications ports, cooling and lots of interconnect), but not the D1 chip itself.
Back in my accounting class, one of the first cases we had was how Microsoft used the unearned revenue piggy bank to massively smooth it's earnings in the 90s, even as the sales were very lumpy.
Pretty sure the standards have become more rigorous, and Tesla has no reason to care about it's share price or volatility, but was thinking this will be a nice offset to declining regulatory credits as FCA left the emissions pool this year.
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