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Seriously?

Where’s the companion article “5 best media companies to NOT bet your career on?”
 
The stupid things people say….

"Day by day, the Indian product is also improving and within two years we will get the electric vehicles of Tesla's standard in Indian market. So, in the interest of Tesla, I suggest that they start manufacturing as early as possible," Gadkari [India’s Transport Minister] said.

Hmmm. Tata is going to develop a killer M2/3/Y class or anything like the S or X product(s)? In two years?

Lower the import duties, and Tesla(s) will come.

 
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Yes but the money is cheap. Rivian has had the chance to see Teslas capital needs, if I were in charge I'd be raising every dollar I could while the money is cheap. I would be shocked if they dont get another couple next year soon after volume shipments begin.

Yes, I was praising Tesla’s capital efficiency rather than disparaging Rivian. I can predict with very high certainty that Rivian will not end up being anywhere nearly as capital efficient. If you have the money to spend, companies will spend it. Just think of Blue Origin’s empty hangers as an example.

People praise Elon for being a good engineer but he is easily as good a businessman. Early in Tesla’s life, he had to raise buckets of money when no one thought an EV company was going to survive. That wasn’t easy. Lately, he has made decisions to expand very rapidly to take advantage of demand. Creating a GA manufacturing line in a sprung tent isn’t something that many CEOs would sign off on or even think of doing. Doing continuous design improvements on a high volume manufacturing line (the “same“ Model 3 six months apart has many design changes and parts that are different) is insane according to traditional manufacturing doctrine, but if you pull it off, you end up with expanding margins and lower costs (eventually). And it gives you the flexibility to do even more insane things like change microcontroller chips requiring new software mid flight (which is one of the many reasons Tesla can keep manufacturing cars while Big Auto stands idle).

I find it kind of ironic that you have all sorts of business books about this or that management fad or supposed business leader, yet nothing (that I know of) that has explored how Elon runs his companies in any real level of detail. Tesla and SpaceX are head and shoulders better than the industry, yet no one has delved into the exact reasons why?
 
I find it kind of ironic that you have all sorts of business books about this or that management fad or supposed business leader, yet nothing (that I know of) that has explored how Elon runs his companies in any real level of detail. Tesla and SpaceX are head and shoulders better than the industry, yet no one has delved into the exact reasons why?
That's because you can go through the motions of showing someone how to run a company, but you can't really teach them how to innovate, be dedicated, work for the long term health of the company, or find new opportunities. Most executives are professional executives. Professional executives know about stock manipulation, outsourcing, replacing long term employees with interns, and golden parachutes. How long the company stays in business is not their major concern so this quarter is all they care about. They are also risk-averse because in a large company it's very hard to get noticed so it's vital to your career to not make mistakes. With few exceptions, whatever the company is producing is just a widget to them.
 
One thing that is highly unusual about Elon's companies is that they are exceedingly capital efficient. Rivian just raised another $2.5B today, making it $10.5B they've raised so far. Rivian has yet to ship a vehicle (other than a few Amazon delivery vans).

Compare that to Tesla who had raised, what, maybe $150M privately? Their IPO was $175M. To date, they've raised in total just over $17B in equity (I'm ignoring debt since that gets paid back eventually). Rather amazing contrast I think.
Excellent point. Next, let’s turn the capital raise figure ($17B) into an estimated $ raised per resulting annual vehicle capacity (4M)= each $4,250 raised resulted in 1 annual vehicle capacity, or, if you prefer the inverse, each dollar raised resulted in 0.00024 annual vehicle capacity….

I cheated and used @The Accountant figures for Fremont (500K), Shanghai (1.9M), Austin (1M) and Berlin (900K) in 2026 (here) as that seems a reasonable result from the capital raises. I rounded down.
 
What's interesting is, at least for straight tracks, I don't think the non-spaceX roadster is going to be THAT impressive compared to Plaid... simply because they're already at the limits of the tires... (the guy who did a weight-striped plaid 1/4 mile run and barely saw the time improve also serves as evidence of this)

(also likely one of the reasons for not doing plaid plus).

The SpaceX PKG roadster can ignore this limitation of physics thanks to the gas thrusters, and will be bonkers fast and (if they get the use of them for turns right) mind blowingly maneuverable too... but the regular one will have the same issue a Plaid Plus would have- there's a limit to how much useful traction 4 street-legal tires can provide no matter how much power the motors have to offer.

On a track with turns either roadster'll still have major advantages from weight and such of course.
Is low weight still an advantage when tire downforce is the limit ?

what fascinates me is that the “2D fighter jet” feel, as gwest so accurately described his P3D back when it was new, is becoming more and more like real spaceship maneuvering possibilities with the thrusters.
 
This is typical Tesla/Elon communication style. Does Tesla ever clearly communicate any of their production delays and executions?
Does Tesla even explain why S&X revamp had delayed for months after missing the announced January delivery? Why does the production of power walls always way behind the demands, and shipped only 200k units in five years? What are the issues on producing solar roofs and what kind of progress can be expected? What are the energy division goals and execution targets in the next few years? Why does Tesla buy bitcoin? How long does Tesla plan to own the asset? . . .

That's a lot of questions so I'll respond with one more:

Why is Tesla the best performing asset in my portfolio?
 
Yes, I was praising Tesla’s capital efficiency rather than disparaging Rivian. I can predict with very high certainty that Rivian will not end up being anywhere nearly as capital efficient. If you have the money to spend, companies will spend it. Just think of Blue Origin’s empty hangers as an example.

People praise Elon for being a good engineer but he is easily as good a businessman. Early in Tesla’s life, he had to raise buckets of money when no one thought an EV company was going to survive. That wasn’t easy. Lately, he has made decisions to expand very rapidly to take advantage of demand. Creating a GA manufacturing line in a sprung tent isn’t something that many CEOs would sign off on or even think of doing. Doing continuous design improvements on a high volume manufacturing line (the “same“ Model 3 six months apart has many design changes and parts that are different) is insane according to traditional manufacturing doctrine, but if you pull it off, you end up with expanding margins and lower costs (eventually). And it gives you the flexibility to do even more insane things like change microcontroller chips requiring new software mid flight (which is one of the many reasons Tesla can keep manufacturing cars while Big Auto stands idle).

I find it kind of ironic that you have all sorts of business books about this or that management fad or supposed business leader, yet nothing (that I know of) that has explored how Elon runs his companies in any real level of detail. Tesla and SpaceX are head and shoulders better than the industry, yet no one has delved into the exact reasons why?
Depends on the reason for writing.
For the history books and Elon fans, that write-up would be amazing. I would read it for sure.
Some entrepreneurs might find it inspiring and helpful. Investors too.

But, what if, in order to achieve Elons level of success you have to be very smart on the level of inter-disciplinary genius, have a really high pain threshold, have the rock-solid good health allowing him to working 80-100+ hours a week for decades, have incredible work ethic so you actually grind through the workload you are capable of - and still be grounded enough to be able to work well with others. Add to that a very solid scientific grounding - and the mental strength to turn the scientific method against himself. Very vividly described by Jim Keller, who said something like "How would you feel if 99% of what you thought and believed turned out to be not true? It is not a nice feeling, but now you can work, now you can be useful."
It is not for the faint of heart, or people interested in living a nice life to do that all the time, but for innovation and thinking outside the box, it is a kind of superpower to be able to put yourself under the microscope.

Also, don't forget Elons genuine interest in and goodwill towards people and mankind - that is by no means a given.

What the essence of what Elon is, the formula, so to speak, behind his success is just freakishly hard to repeat?
Such a tale might still instill awe and respect for Elon, but it might also be *very* daunting and thus actually not inspire people to follow his footsteps because the climb is just sooo steep, and his boots are just too big.

You might end up with at comprehensive and well-researched guide to leadership which would be a useful for exactly 1 person.
 
Youtube channel Veritasium has 9.54 M subscribers. Yesterday he released a video on Waymo self-driving in Phoenix (sponsored by Waymo). Just in one day the video already has 744K views and 65K likes. His top video has 72 million views.

Although he successfully avoided saying the "T" word even once in the video, (or more likely edited them out), this video will help inform the masses that full self driving has been around for a decade, is already safer than some drivers, and will only become better with time.

tldr: Nothing new, not worth watching, except for the view count and the number of likes, some of whom could be future FSD buyers.

 
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Depends on the reason for writing.
For the history books and Elon fans, that write-up would be amazing. I would read it for sure.
Some entrepreneurs might find it inspiring and helpful. Investors too.

But, what if, in order to achieve Elons level of success you have to be very smart on the level of inter-disciplinary genius, have a really high pain threshold, have the rock-solid good health allowing him to working 80-100+ hours a week for decades, have incredible work ethic so you actually grind through the workload you are capable of - and still be grounded enough to be able to work well with others. Add to that a very solid scientific grounding - and the mental strength to turn the scientific method against himself. Very vividly described by Jim Keller, who said something like "How would you feel if 99% of what you thought and believed turned out to be not true? It is not a nice feeling, but now you can work, now you can be useful."
It is not for the faint of heart, or people interested in living a nice life to do that all the time, but for innovation and thinking outside the box, it is a kind of superpower to be able to put yourself under the microscope.

Also, don't forget Elons genuine interest in and goodwill towards people and mankind - that is by no means a given.

What the essence of what Elon is, the formula, so to speak, behind his success is just freakishly hard to repeat?
Such a tale might still instill awe and respect for Elon, but it might also be *very* daunting and thus actually not inspire people to follow his footsteps because the climb is just sooo steep, and his boots are just too big.

You might end up with at comprehensive and well-researched guide to leadership which would be a useful for exactly 1 person.
The amount of people who are willing to risk their entire wealth of 180 million dollars on ventures with less than 10% chance of success even with 80-120hrs of hard work week while raising 5 kids is about 1 out of 7.8 billion people.

No one else is insane enough to ever want to repeat it.
 
This is the biggest failure of valuation on here over the years. Consant theories or analysis that this is a heavy hitter, yet here we are......maybe the street needs more details but I'm saddened to see it a flop and tired of the mis-valuation.
Or be happy that these big failures in valuation are what create the push and pull in the market, that makes it possible for us to buy a great company for cheap.

If we ALL had the same point of view about the company, and nobody was betting hard against it, then it'd just be a boring trip upwards
Even though this was one of the best videos that I have seen in a very long time, the 2 hours was a bit much so I skipped around.
For those of you with only a few minutes, watch 11:50 to 14.:10.
Right at 13 minutes the speaker identifies something that I've been telling people since 2014 - a critical component of my personal investment thesis is actually owning a Tesla, and it has been since 2012. Owning a Tesla has made it easy for me to hold for 9 years so far, because I get a daily reminder of just how different and amazing these are.

Paradigm changes are experiential, or at least that's been my experience living through one, and attempting to teach people another one. You need to get hands on (given that its a hand on sort of thing) because it needs to be experienced.

Driving a Tesla was my 'iPhone moment' as I've heard others describe it. When I first test drove a Model S in fall of 2012 the world suddenly divided into before and after, and I had a hard time remembering "before" when I walked away from the test drive.

Buying a Tesla isn't wasted capital that could have been invested in the company - it's an investment in your own long term understanding of the investment.
That's because you can go through the motions of showing someone how to run a company, but you can't really teach them how to innovate, be dedicated, work for the long term health of the company, or find new opportunities. Most executives are professional executives. Professional executives know about stock manipulation, outsourcing, replacing long term employees with interns, and golden parachutes. How long the company stays in business is not their major concern so this quarter is all they care about. They are also risk-averse because in a large company it's very hard to get noticed so it's vital to your career to not make mistakes. With few exceptions, whatever the company is producing is just a widget to them.
I wish that all that stuff about professional executives wasn't true. Yet it is - I've seen it in other companies I've invested in, and its given me one of my signals to disinvest. When the accountants take over the CEO slot in an engineering company, then I'm out. That mostly means I invest in founder run and then engineering (the 'second generation') managed businesses.
 
LET'S GET TO MONEY MONDAY, EVERYONE!!!
If we have a bad chair day when we get earnings…

1627148115662.jpeg
 
Buying a Tesla isn't wasted capital that could have been invested in the company - it's an investment in your own long term understanding of the investment.
Man that is so true. Buy the car and you will buy the stock....most likely.

Every drive in my car reaffirms my belief in the company. Every time I am forced to drive a non tesla ...well it is shocking how bad they compare.

Can't wait for next week...crystal ball is saying it will be good.
 
Depends on the reason for writing.
For the history books and Elon fans, that write-up would be amazing. I would read it for sure.
Some entrepreneurs might find it inspiring and helpful. Investors too.

But, what if, in order to achieve Elons level of success you have to be very smart on the level of inter-disciplinary genius, have a really high pain threshold, have the rock-solid good health allowing him to working 80-100+ hours a week for decades, have incredible work ethic so you actually grind through the workload you are capable of - and still be grounded enough to be able to work well with others. Add to that a very solid scientific grounding - and the mental strength to turn the scientific method against himself. Very vividly described by Jim Keller, who said something like "How would you feel if 99% of what you thought and believed turned out to be not true? It is not a nice feeling, but now you can work, now you can be useful."
It is not for the faint of heart, or people interested in living a nice life to do that all the time, but for innovation and thinking outside the box, it is a kind of superpower to be able to put yourself under the microscope.

Also, don't forget Elons genuine interest in and goodwill towards people and mankind - that is by no means a given.

What the essence of what Elon is, the formula, so to speak, behind his success is just freakishly hard to repeat?
Such a tale might still instill awe and respect for Elon, but it might also be *very* daunting and thus actually not inspire people to follow his footsteps because the climb is just sooo steep, and his boots are just too big.

You might end up with at comprehensive and well-researched guide to leadership which would be a useful for exactly 1 person.

Even if you can't replicate Elon's unique combinations (we are all unique), you can still augment your own modest capabilities here and there. Such a book, I think, would be valuable, and a lot better than 90% of the existing business books out there. Also Elon has a larger following and engenders more respect than us Tesla nerds give him credit for.
 
Or be happy that these big failures in valuation are what create the push and pull in the market, that makes it possible for us to buy a great company for cheap.

If we ALL had the same point of view about the company, and nobody was betting hard against it, then it'd just be a boring trip upwards

Right at 13 minutes the speaker identifies something that I've been telling people since 2014 - a critical component of my personal investment thesis is actually owning a Tesla, and it has been since 2012. Owning a Tesla has made it easy for me to hold for 9 years so far, because I get a daily reminder of just how different and amazing these are.

Paradigm changes are experiential, or at least that's been my experience living through one, and attempting to teach people another one. You need to get hands on (given that its a hand on sort of thing) because it needs to be experienced.

Driving a Tesla was my 'iPhone moment' as I've heard others describe it. When I first test drove a Model S in fall of 2012 the world suddenly divided into before and after, and I had a hard time remembering "before" when I walked away from the test drive.

Buying a Tesla isn't wasted capital that could have been invested in the company - it's an investment in your own long term understanding of the investment.

I wish that all that stuff about professional executives wasn't true. Yet it is - I've seen it in other companies I've invested in, and its given me one of my signals to disinvest. When the accountants take over the CEO slot in an engineering company, then I'm out. That mostly means I invest in founder run and then engineering (the 'second generation') managed businesses.
When is Warren Redlich getting a Tesla? I really think he needs to. Might increase his convictions & resulting projections of financial future/profits. As it is, I feel he's a little pessimistic /s