Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[elasalle]

And I am aware of folks who have eschewed "higher" management positions in order to do more hands-on engineering, or who have left "Senior" positions in order to work on an exciting focused project.

So, the bottom line is we don't have enough data to know... yet there seems to be eagerness to jump to negative conclusions...

No eagerness on my part. Like I said doesn't matter to me(but biased more to it being something he didn't like)
Take a balanced view. Don't paint Rosy picture, don't paint a negative one either.

My original reply was to the very optimistic view. I don't believe that. In TMC we see the glass half full most of the time

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Well folks, let's burn those shorts once again - they don't learn.

Never forget...

 

[JRP3]

Charging speed is more important IMHO. If Tesla can make charging stops as fast as filling up a tank, if not faster, that is the final nail in the ICE coffin.

The fastest charging stop is no charging stop.

 

[Unpilot]

The fastest charging stop is no charging stop.

Infinity battery for the win!

 

[Singuy]

It's annoying that a single piece of FUD can drop the stock 5% or more within minutes of it coming out, but when the FUD is busted, it only recovers a fraction of what it lost. Eventually the actual data wins out and the stock recovers, but the asymmetry of reactions suck.

This is why short selling is popular. Even though mathematically it's stupid, I hear people love short selling because fear drops a stock faster than waiting patiently for appreciation. Elevator down, stair case up. Shorts are usually never in it for the long run(except TslaQ) so they can make a quick 5-10% gain and get out.

 

[Pezpunk]

Infinity battery for the win!

Elon should just turn regen on 100% of the time instead of just when braking.

 

[The Accountant]

My favorite thing about Gordon's FUD is that he has been saying that Tesla's growth is over for years, yet he keeps raising his delivery estimates every quarter.

Look at this chart I just completed. When you look at Shanghai's deliveries for month 2 of a quarter, May was a monster month:
Due to the wave adopted by Shanghai, we should see a monster month 3 in June as they prioritize markets closer to Shanghai.
He will need to raise his estimates again.

 

[lafrisbee]

Good timing - the China news completely wipes out the Jerome news. Was going to open below $600, now $625 pre market

Nope. Sorry. The stock is NOT controlled by MM's. back to yesterdays closing $605.
Riiight.

 

[scaesare]

Yes, even for tabless cells, it matters.

18650 and 2170 cells are both shorter by 4680 cells. So even if all heat is pulled out through the foil, heat at the middle of the cell has 5-7.5 mm less distance to travel.

As has been alluded to in other replies, this ignores the fact that the path through the jelly-roll has to travel through multiple layers if cathode material, electrolyte, and insulating medium to reach the side of the can. Many of those tend to have thermal insulating properties. The metallic foil anode however, is highly thermally conductive.

I'f the heat conductivity path is 4x the distance, yet through material that's 10x as thermally conductive, you are ahead of the game.

a pack made up of smaller cells is less energy dense, which means that less heat will be generated in the same amount of space overall.

Are you referring to the overhead attributable to casing material? That's barely a blip in the overall pack volume.

 

[Krugerrand]

I'll hold judgement on how this week plays out until I see whether the powers that be are able to walk the SP back down to 600.

That’s looking like a golden prediction right there.

 

[scaesare]

This is flat out wrong. Discharging/charging (as in the SPEED which is what we are talking about) is affected by the distance electrons need to go in the cell and resistance inside the cell (and other factors well outside of density). A 4680 cell has more potential distance for electricity to travel given identical cell makeup otherwise. This resistance makes heat during charging and discharging. These things do not scale linearly.

You realize that's exactly what "power density" captures, right?

 

[JusRelax]

Agreed in CA charging speed is more important. Not so much in the central states where SCs are widely spaced--range is king. An out of service SC is the difference between going on a trip or cancelling. If Tesla starts building more SC locations in the central states, then speed becomes more important. Right now there are few new locations shown. (To be fair, the east-west routes are not bad but north-south SC locations are sadly lacking.)

In his most recent video, The Limiting Factor believes that the Tesla charge rate in the future will be limited by the supercharger, not by the vehicle, and the potential charge rate of teslas will be absolutely insane if Tesla can get the superchargers to pump out more juice quicker.

For example, a 180kWh Cybertruck would be able to charge at about 7x the current 250kW supercharger rate. He discusses the possibilty to charge 80% in 5 minutes.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Nope. Sorry. The stock is NOT controlled by MM's. back to yesterdays closing $605.
Riiight.

Ha.

 

[scaesare]

Don't paint Rosy picture, don't paint a negative one either.

Hence my original reply asking why it was being painted as his being demoted and therefore supporting the idea he was ousted.

 

[jkirkwood001]

If people want stock type news, unfortunately cnbc is still one of the top ones since they constantly interview with Ceos of multiple companies. Fox Business news is way too political and just pushes agendas for the republican party. Bloomberg is also decent.

Perhaps not millennial and younger, but the older folks still trust in what cnbc has to say. Not many people of those generation will go on youtube and listen to some dudes bull or bear thesis.

It's working. SP is down to 606 because of spin (or blinders) by CNBC talking heads, et. al.

 

[st_lopes]

Look at this chart I just completed. When you look at Shanghai's deliveries for month 2 of a quarter, May was a monster month:
Due to the wave adopted by Shanghai, we should see a monster month 3 in June as they prioritize markets closer to Shanghai.
He will need to raise his estimates again.

View attachment 670894

Nailed it. GoJo will continue to cherry-pick the domestic only sales to paint whatever narrative he wants, which today is that Net Orders are what matters and The Information is painting a doomsday sales cliff that will come to fruition in June.

I on the other hand would not be shocked if we see a 40-45k MiC Month 3.

 

[henchman24]

Look at this chart I just completed. When you look at Shanghai's deliveries for month 2 of a quarter, May was a monster month:
Due to the wave adopted by Shanghai, we should see a monster month 3 in June as they prioritize markets closer to Shanghai.
He will need to raise his estimates again.

View attachment 670894

Back of the napkin math... 35.5k for June would put Shanghai around 95k. If Fremont just matched Q1's 101k. Already at 196k. Say 2k Model S, slight increase in Shanghai for June (say another 2k) and Fremont... 200-205 is realistic for Q2.

 

[Artful Dodger]

TSLA 10:40 EDT
SharePrice 606.40
200-D MA 606.39

 

[FireMedic]

Yep. I’m sure I spend more on yearly subs for Creative Cloud and Office than I used to pay for occasional upgrades. Now it’s just an ongoing deductible business expense.

My wife has been working from home for the past year and a half. Her mega cap tech employer wants her back in the office…

We didn’t buy FSD for her car but if Tesla can solve this; we WILL buy the subscription and she can expense most of it which will be amazing.

She Already loves her M3P…but this will be a next-level love-story if she can get her company to pay for her beautiful car to drive her to and from work, sitting in “soul crushing” Bay Area traffic.

Even at $200/month it will be the same or cheaper than taking BART… And without the concern of having her laptop or phone stolen
Out of her hands again.

 

[viridi]

CNBC spending the morning talking about Elon's taxes rather than, of course, letting folks know that the FUD last week on China was false.