Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[M|S|M MYP]

At this point, we've had about 4 different sources all say pretty much the same numbers. I think we can lose the grain of salt

I'll lose the grain of salt when Tesla comes out with the 'official' number.....

 

[Thumper]

Do we know if all battery form factors have been changed to tabless? It seems much of the performance benefit described on battery day is from tabless design change rather than form factor. If this is the case, perhaps we shouldn't obsess over not having the 4680s in the S Plaid.

 

[Cherry Wine]

At this point, we've had about 4 different sources all say pretty much the same numbers. I think we can lose the grain of salt

I'm incredulous that these numbers are accurate. They are very rosy, and the Model Y exports do not make very much sense, unless Tesla pivoted from exporting Model Ys to South Korea from Shanghai instead of Fremont mid-quarter. (And for that to have happened, we would have had to miss a ship from Shanghai -> Pyeongtaek.)

It's possible, but I'll hang on to that grain for another 24 hours.

 

[kbM3]

Power density is not the same as charging capability. Charging capability would be the ability to quickly charge given a certain battery size. Apples to Apples, as in 100kWh battery vs 100kWh battery. Those being equal, the 2170's could charge at a higher rate, even with the 2170's using traditional tabs and the 4680's using tabless. Now a 4680 battery at 100kWh would almost certainly be lighter, which would mean better performance and longer range, but that is not the same as 'charging capability'. Also the 2170 cells themselves that are used in Tesla's have a higher charging capability then is being used today. It is held back by wire size/weight tradeoffs and cooling capability (pack not cell) limits. The 4680 cells initially will be charging much closer to the cells theoretical peak vs the 2170. Again, at the CELL level not the pack level.

4680 is better due to cost and weight reductions, but with all tech applied to the 2170 being equal to the 4680 (chemistry, and tabless) the 2170 would be the higher performing cell in a performance car.

Yes Power density IS the measure of charging/discharging capacity for a given weight.

maybe you’re confusing it with energy density?

I.e. Power density is measured in W / kg and energy density in Wh / kg.

 

[willow_hiller]

Fred is implying he's been heading to a startup for a couple months and just now officially left. Funny, I didn't even really know this guy existed.

He's got an Army background then onto the sales/busdev side of utilities. Not sure why anyone thought a sales-side person would fit this role. Anywho....he's only been around for a year, hopefully we can move on to someone with a bit grander vision than someone with a sales-heavy background(no offense salespeople!)

I'd be open to the position if no one's willing to stand in front of the Elon firing line!

I wonder if this is related to a restructuring that has been rumored on Reddit:

https://www.reddit.com/r/TeslaSolar/comments/nql6tw/_/h0baecj

If so, I'm already seeing some reports of improved communications with customers:

https://www.reddit.com/r/TeslaSolar/comments/nsfzkx

Let's hope this is indeed a change for the better.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Thanks. I found out when researching it. And you are right. And to make things worse, you can't even buy a similar security within 30 days, so I guess that rules out moving it to ARKK or LUCID or perhaps any electric car stock for 30 days and moving it back.

No. You've applied the dictionary definition of "similar" too liberally. "similar security" means something like selling TSLA for a loss and then buying call options for TSLA within 30 days. ARKK and LUCID are the securities for entirely different companies.

Note that a wash sale does NOT mean your loss didn't exist, only that the loss has to be calculated as a stepped up basis for the follow-up trade [of a "similar security"]. The point of the wash sale rule was to prevent people from gaming the tax system at year end (claim a loss, even though you didn't actually "sell" your shares by buying it back right after selling it).

 

[dl003]

I'm incredulous that these numbers are accurate. They are very rosy, and the Model Y exports do not make very much sense, unless Tesla pivoted from exporting Model Ys to South Korea from Shanghai instead of Fremont mid-quarter. (And for that to have happened, we would have had to miss a ship from Shanghai -> Pyeongtaek.)

It's possible, but I'll hang on to that grain for another 24 hours.

They're not that rosy if you subscribe to the theory that many April exports were in transit which resulted in an artificially low April, as proposed by @The Accountant. If you take May and April together, we have 70k, which is in line with March.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I'm incredulous that these numbers are accurate. They are very rosy, and the Model Y exports do not make very much sense, unless Tesla pivoted from exporting Model Ys to South Korea from Shanghai instead of Fremont mid-quarter. It's possible, but I'll hang on to that grain for another 24 hours. And for that to have happened, we would have had to miss a ship from Shanghai -> Pyeongtaek.

It's been stated, even by people that track the ships, the there's much more uncertainty about the number of ships out of Shanghai than Fremont. They acknowledge there could be ships that they're missing.

But besides that, look at the evidence.....the Y ramp is following step in line with the 3 ramp in Shanghai. They added a second shift. And they shut down the lines for improvements in April (though still not certain exactly how long that shut down was for). When you're left with uncertainty on some things (like the number of ships or how many cars they're loading onto the ships or when certain batches of cars get counted for "exports" at the end of a month), you look at the facts that you do have. It's why Troy and other were so off for Q1 and especially march China numbers. They refuse to look at the production capacity and instead focused on uncertainties (which they're conveniently doing once again this quarter).

While 44k production is extremely impressive......it shouldn't be dumbfounding. It just means Tesla is executing to their production capacity.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

It's been stated, even by people that track the ships, the there's much more uncertainty about the number of ships out of Shanghai than Fremont. They acknowledge there could be ships that they're missing.

But besides that, look at the evidence.....the Y ramp is following step in line with the 3 ramp in Shanghai. They added a second shift. And they shut down the lines for improvements in April (though still not certain exactly how long that shut down was for). When you're left with uncertainty on some things (like the number of ships or how many cars they're loading onto the ships), you look at the facts that you do have. It's why Troy and other were so off for Q1 and especially march China numbers. They refuse to look at the production capacity and instead focused on uncertainties (which they're conveniently doing once again this quarter).

While 44k production is extremely impressive......it shouldn't be dumbfounding. It just means Tesla is executing to their production capacity.

Not according to Gordo.....

 

[Chunky Jr.]

It seems lost on people that the original promise made at Battery Day was Plaid by end-of-2021. It is now arriving significantly early

OTOH, this is from January...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1354618504532684802

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Not according to Gordo.....

Gordo's going to need a diaper after Q2 numbers come out

 

[SOULPEDL]

Actual spy picture of @Krugerrand deciding what next to post.


View attachment 670535

This is disinformation. The sighting in the police car yesterday was a brown short-haired tabby, much lighter and near kitten age.
This is clearly an imposter, Bandit saw it right away!

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Gordo's going to need a diaper after Q2 numbers come out

I think he'll do what he did in Q1....overshoot his load on numbers so that he can say again "We're the biggest bears and they still couldn't meet our predictions"...meanwhile...GLJ research has a 300k number for Q2

 

[Curt Renz]

Jalopnik - hour ago: Tesla App Code Hints At 'Safety Rating' That May Adjust Insurance Cost Based On How You Drive

Excerpt:

The safety rating page will track your vehicle and is linked directly to your insurance. It will show the number of hours you’ve driven, how often you use AutoPilot, ABS events, forward collision warnings, autosteer strikeouts, accelerator variance, and many other metrics on both a per-trip and monthly basis which you’ll be able to see in a neat graphical interface. You are given a ‘pass’ or ‘fail’ rating (though it is unclear whether that rating will be visible to the end user) and, from what I can tell, appears to be exclusive to HW2 and above and software version 2021.4.12 is required.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I think he'll do what he did in Q1....overshoot his load on numbers so that he can say again "We're the biggest bears and they still couldn't meet our predictions"...meanwhile...GLJ research has a 300k number for Q2

Haha true....but I was more so referencing Gordon's favorite talking about. Barring some unknown huge costs somewhere.....Q2 will mark then of end of his "Tesla can't make a profit without credits" line......and it won't be close. The combination of above 210k vehicles, 2-3k Model S's, and a significantly reduced Elon pay package hit for Q2 will result in significant profits without factoring any EV credits

 

[Hock1]

When a well run company does stuff that doesn't make sense to you, it's wise to assume that you don't understand the particulars as well those who make the decisions. In fact, I'm sure of this.

Agreed. Now, if everyone could just sit still and not do anything until after Thursday, I believe it will be obvious that Tesla is continuing to do what they need to do: stay way ahead of their competition through accelerated innovation.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Hmmm... this (China production) would be very good news if true...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1401937856910692354

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Haha true....but I was more so referencing Gordon's favorite talking about. Barring some unknown huge costs somewhere.....Q2 will mark then of end of his "Tesla can't make a profit without credits" line......and it won't be close. The combination of above 210k vehicles, 2-3k Model S's, and a significantly reduced Elon pay package hit for Q2 will result in significant profits without factoring any EV credits

I'm sure he'll come up with some other BS like "Tesla's factory capacity is X and they only produced X..demand problem....Huge China demand problem because they had to export and China GF was supposed to be built strictly for China....essentially....sorry my audio is breaking up....my PPP loan hasn't cleared yet...yada..yada"

 

[Zero CO2]

I came across this article from Jan '21. Biggest difference to me would be the 100+ mi range on the Plaid+. Maybe it was simply deemed a waste of battery on the overall mission? Having dominance in the bag with Plaid... why bother with another variant? And maybe Tesla expected more from the competition, and realized they were competing with themselves - way, way out in front.

Tesla Model S Long Range Vs. Plaid Vs. Plaid+

The Model S Plaid variant specs are remarkable.

screenrant.com

Might have something to do with this "competition"

"He reiterated that Lucid Motors was “very much on track” to start production this year and shared that the company aims to produce over 577 vehicles in 2021. When asked if Lucid Motors could make 20,000 electric vehicles in 2022, Rawlinson did not seem to readily commit to the goal. He stated that Lucid Motors plans to see “significant growth” next year."

Lucid Motors CEO predicts “significant growth” in 2022, but won’t commit to 20,000 EV target

Lucid Motors CEO Peter Rawlinson appeared on CNBC recently and talked about the EV company’s goals for 2021 leading up to next year. Rawlinson shared some details about Lucid Air production and the company’s target for this year. Rawlinson seemed confident that Lucid Motors would start...

www.teslarati.com

 

[oldTAVguy]

Gordo's going to need a diaper after Q2 numbers come out

He should have it on before the numbers come out.