Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Prunesquallor]

I know you and I might want it, but as long as they are production constrained, whatever they can do to optimize factory throughput the better. And the paint batching had been an issue.

Right now it clearly makes sense to devote resources to battery supply rather than paint color selection... the former will generate more sales, the latter, probably not.

One of these days, Elon will get fed up with paint shops and dig into electrochromic metals. Then all this nonsense can be put behind us.

 

[StealthP3D]

Real car-lovers forget that there are people out there who will buy a nissan leaf because they prefer their red to teslas red. Some people can only describe their car by the color. I know people who if pressed, don't even know the make of their car, but will say 'its a nice silver one'.
It seems like its an easy win in terms of making them more attractive to a wider, less geeky audience, especially as the sale price comes down to attract the more casual EV buyer.

Oh boy! That was a good one! You really had me going there for a minute, I thought you were dead serious about a significant number of people buying a Nissan instead of a Tesla because Nissan had a better shade of red. But the joke was exposed when you said, "I know people who if pressed, don't even know the make of their car, but will say 'its a nice silver one'."

It sounds like you are saying "geeky people", like us weirdos (who actually know the make of their car), probably comprise nearly 100% of current Tesla owners but we need to be more inclusive of all the non-geeky car owners out there who know they want a midnight ebony car but would never settle for a jet black car and the brand is, well, they don't know or care who makes it or what model it is, all they know is it's a beautiful midnight ebony and has some swoopy lines. I imagine if you ask them if it's electric or gas they would say, "Oh, I don't know about all those details, my wife looks after the car, I just know the right pedal makes it go faster and the left pedal makes it stop real quick"

It might be time to start including regular folk in the Tesla club rather than keeping it exclusively us geeky types. Could better colors be that elusive key to taking sales volumes to the next level? You should re-tweet this idea to Elon, he may not be as up on British car buying culture as you. I mean, as an American, I had no idea it was so trendy to "forget" the make of your car.

Store manager: "Is that your red Tesla blocking the fire lane outside?"
Customer: "Excuse me? Oh, I do have an absolutely gorgeous red car but I don't think I parked it in a fire lane."
Store manager: "Is your car a Tesla?"
Customer: "Uh, Oh, I don't know all those details but it is a very tantalizing shade of red."
Store manager: "Are all Tesla owners this clueless?"
Customer: "Is that supposed to be some kind of insult or something? I'm never patronizing this store again!"

/s

 

[DriveMe]

Wait, are you saying Mexico is not part of America ?
Wouldn't they say United States if they meant just the US ?

They did say "the United States":

"Chairman’s modification also provides an additional credit amount of $2,500 for new qualified plug-in electric drive motor vehicles for which the final assembly is at a facility in the United States before 2026. For vehicles sold after December 31, 2025, the base amount of credit for new qualified plug-in electric drive motor vehicles is increased from $2,500 to $5,000, and final assembly of a new qualified plug-in electric drive motor vehicle must occur in the United States."

https://www.finance.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Clean_Energy_for_America_Act_Chairmans_Modified_Mark.pdf

 

[ChefBoyardee]

Not sure if this was posted yet but Dave Lee talked to Munro!

 

[lafrisbee]

I read a book by a journalist who embedded with gangs/drug dealers (think it was called Gang Leader for a Day). One of their “business philosophies” as I recall was: if someone offers you a $100 now, or $200 next week, you always take the sale/$100 now. Who knows where they will be in a week.

While Tesla reservation holders are presumably more reliable than junkies (though just as addicted!), it may simply be that it makes more business sense for Tesla to get the sale now, if they can. Waiting a year, gives a potential customer 12 more months to opt out — they could die, get hit with financial hardship, divorce, decide to try an electric Porsche, be talked out of it, or simply change their mind. Whatever. Granted, most who make the Plaid+ reservation are probably Tesla diehards, but you never know - still a lot of variables. Prob better to just book a sale now, if they can. Even if the buyer doesn’t upgrade later.

In the South (and probably on the Southside of Chicago) that Seller's "philosophy" is identified as, "A fast nickel beats a slow dime." And is why every good ol boy carried a hun'red dollah bill fold up behind his driver's license. Money talks. Nothing new.

 

[scaesare]

One of these days, Elon will get fed up with paint shops and dig into electrochromic metals. Then all this nonsense can be put behind us.

 

[Knightshade]

Add on top, that most people don't have a $12,500 tax liability and for those lower income buyers it's a wash if you can only do $8,402 because your income isn't high enough it'll be $8,402 for both Tesla and non Tesla.

The new credit (in this specific bill anyway) is refundable, so everyone will get the full amount regardless of tax liability.

Bidens original proposal was for it to be a point of sale credit- where again the full credit would be available regardless of income or liability.

 

[willow_hiller]

They did say "the United States":

"Chairman’s modification also provides an additional credit amount of $2,500 for new qualified plug-in electric drive motor vehicles for which the final assembly is at a facility in the United States before 2026. For vehicles sold after December 31, 2025, the base amount of credit for new qualified plug-in electric drive motor vehicles is increased from $2,500 to $5,000, and final assembly of a new qualified plug-in electric drive motor vehicle must occur in the United States."

https://www.finance.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Clean_Energy_for_America_Act_Chairmans_Modified_Mark.pdf

Also interesting to look at the exact text around the "union" credit.

The Chairman’s modification provides an additional credit amount of $2,500 for new qualified plug-in electric drive motor vehicles for which the final assembly is at a facility whose production workers are members of or represented by a labor organization.

I wonder if that could include non-union labor organizations. For e.g. Uber/Lyft drivers are represented by a "Guild" that is not a union: These 8 non-union worker organizations are quietly leading the new labor movement

 

[SOULPEDL]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1397921365567557637

I think the hidden agenda with the EV tax plan is designed to help GM then Ford, and both more than Tesla (almost remembering GM's big reveal).
Non-Tesla auto is in trouble and needs a handicap to play IMO. Bottom line reason is jobs. How else would you boost EV incentives without helping Tesla too much? And likewise, Tesla doesn't need a monopoly - which is where this is headed IMO.

Meanwhile, Tesla Lawyers looking up the narrowest definition of Union I suppose, but not much bargaining power for workers if their Stock Options come off the table. So why not go "Union" (fine print required)? What's the downside, a Tesla strike? I'd still work there, for free or as an apprenticeship, and so would a million other people. Job satisfaction isn't just about money, it's more about feeling included and making your time count. Tesla has that market sewn up.

So we're clear, I'm not in favor of a Tesla Union. However, if the law becomes real and an incentive is available, I would reconsider to possibly make an even better situation than before. However, I really don't understand Unions fully, nor the power they yield, so with a grain of salt.

 

[lafrisbee]

Agreed. And if you want to increase the credit, how about for something that is a true benefit to the customer but that also increases the cost to manufacture significantly, so increased functionality and retail price but not increased luxury. Maybe something like range?

300+ miles range: +$2,500 credit
500+ miles range: ++$2,500 credit

I'll go with a big fat "no." Range is a luxury in today's ICE vehicles.

My Imagination would have the rebate tied to earned income and taxed income and taxes paid.
And would be payable in accordance with the amount of the payments made for that tax year.

The equation could be done in a day by my wife (Then she does know Python and has a Doctorate in Stochastics).
(But to this day the lack of basic modern math is excluded in the Government. As an example, look at the income tax tables.)

And have an online calculator open to the consumer where they can plug in their numbers to estimate the amount they will receive each year.

 

[larmor]

I think the hidden agenda with the EV tax plan is designed to help GM then Ford, and both more than Tesla (almost remembering GM's big reveal).
Non-Tesla auto is in trouble and needs a handicap to play IMO. Bottom line reason is jobs. How else would you boost EV incentives without helping Tesla too much? And likewise, Tesla doesn't need a monopoly - which is where this is headed IMO.

Meanwhile, Tesla Lawyers looking up the narrowest definition of Union I suppose, but not much bargaining power for workers if their Stock Options come off the table. So why not go "Union" (fine print required)? What's the downside, a Tesla strike? I'd still work there, for free or as an apprenticeship, and so would a million other people. Job satisfaction isn't just about money, it's more about feeling included and making your time count. Tesla has that market sewn up.

So we're clear, I'm not in favor of a Tesla Union. However, if the law becomes real and an incentive is available, I would reconsider to possibly make an even better situation than before. However, I really don't understand Unions fully, nor the power they yield, so with a grain of salt.

Maybe a Tesla union with dues paid in stock options...

 

[lafrisbee]

Math. 8300 in 2 wks in Apr vs 8800 in 4 wks in Mar

If you allow for Mar being 1 day longer, then that works out to within 0.5 days of prod dec. in Apr.

That's a 100% higher daily production rate in Apr vs Mar if you buy the shtdn FUD.

I don't.

I don't know if this improves your argument but I went and looked. March had three more workdays (M-F) than Feb.

 

[Pezpunk]

I think the hidden agenda with the EV tax plan is designed to help GM then Ford, and both more than Tesla (almost remembering GM's big reveal).
Non-Tesla auto is in trouble and needs a handicap to play IMO. Bottom line reason is jobs. How else would you boost EV incentives without helping Tesla too much? And likewise, Tesla doesn't need a monopoly - which is where this is headed IMO.

First of all, no way the union stipulation survives. It's in there so the Dems can sacrifice it as a bone to throw Manchin and other moderates.

Second, even if it did survive, the bill would still be a huge net win for Tesla. Currently Ford gets $7500 tax credit and Tesla gets $0. Even with the union clause, worst case scenario is that'd change the math to Ford - $12,500 and Tesla - $10,000. The result would make Teslas even more attractive, not less.

Bottom line is virtually any version of this bill helps Tesla more than any other manufacturer, since it's the only one currently eligible for zero Federal tax credits.

 

[woodisgood]

What’s stopping Tesla/SpaceX/Boring workers from forming a union, so that rogue tycoon Musk doesn’t trample their rights?

The new manufacturing workforce needs a new type of union anyway.

Seriously, why not do it?

 

[EnzoXYZ]

I already hated crypto. An energy-wasting pyramid scheme whose only utility is to serve as a vehicle for speculation and as a way for ransomeware criminals to collect extortion money untraceably. And to a lesser extent, tax evasion and black-market transactions generally, from drugs to sex slaves.

What Tesla's purchase of BTC did for me was to lower Elon in my estimation. Speculating with stockholders' money in a pyramid scheme that empowers criminals was a rotten thing to do.

Are you sure you’re not talking about cash?

 

[jerry33]

What’s stopping Tesla/SpaceX/Boring workers from forming a union, so that rogue tycoon Musk doesn’t trample their rights?

The new manufacturing workforce needs a new type of union anyway.

Seriously, why not do it?

Doesn't that become a company union, which I believe is illegal.

 

[Pezpunk]

What’s stopping Tesla/SpaceX/Boring workers from forming a union, so that rogue tycoon Musk doesn’t trample their rights?

The new manufacturing workforce needs a new type of union anyway.

Seriously, why not do it?

My understanding is that those workers are free to vote to form a union any time they choose. They simply haven't done so -- which is what makes the EV credit stipulation so weird, since Tesla can't actually control whether its workers form a union or not.

 

[Todd Burch]

What’s stopping Tesla/SpaceX/Boring workers from forming a union, so that rogue tycoon Musk doesn’t trample their rights?

The new manufacturing workforce needs a new type of union anyway.

Seriously, why not do it?

I believe they'd have to sacrifice their stock options. Plus, at least up until now, the employees don't want to do that.

 

[jbcarioca]

I did read the article i just disagree with it ... I stick with my original point banks/ credit agencies are one of the worst types of stock investment ... they can be wiped out in black swan event and don't have the upside potential of growth companies ... see GE Capital, GMAC , etc... when folks lose their jobs and don't want their expensive cars anymore ... guess who is left holding the bag.. any way as other have pointed out Ford still has not been bailed out by US Govt so they do have that in thier back pocket ... if Tesla starts to become a bank/credit agency of any scale i will have to re-evaluate my investment ... innovation will suffer

Your points are valid only for people who do not do due diligence on investments, that's most investors.
Specifically your points are a trifle off. GMAC was profitable when spun off except for the disastrous foray into the subprime mortgage business. Most of GE Capital was profitable, but they too took bad moves into high risk low return derivatives. Anyone who was doing due diligence could have sold when those moves were made, since they were public information. However, in both cases the general attitude of securities analysts pretty much ignored the financial risks while lauding pickups, industrial turbines and turbojet engines among other things.

By the way, banks are one thing. What do you mean by "credit agencies"?

As for "black swan events" the premise is that such events are random, rare and inherently unpredictable in the specific. Such a description is not characteristic of the 'great mortgage meltdown', nor of most major corporate failures.

Regarding Tesla: They now originate auto insurance products in several jurisdictions. They own and control leasing businesses in several products lines and have securitized lease packages regularly offered. Further, in most energy products Tesla offers numerous varieties of service contracts, extended warranties and financing options.

To date Tesla has been both innovative and conservative in financial products. They are just beginning to reach critical mass to justify increasingly innovative options.

Another variant on financial services is energy wholesale distribution and grid services, in which Tesla is already licensed in the EU, UK and several other major markets.

Finally, Tesla is deeply involved in global finance including many currencies including cryptocurrencies. We do not read too much about those topics (except Bitcoin, of course) precisely because Tesla is adept at handling these risks without much drama. That is clear evidence of serious competence.

In short, uncontrolled risk causes inevitable losses, usually preceded with ignorant euphoria.
In your post you seem to be unaware of Tesla's financing activities. If you really think these are high risk, low reward businesses doomed to failure you should sell your Tesla shares and perhaps short Tesla while you're at it. I recommend neither of those steps, just as I offer no other investment advice apart from serious due diligence and avoidance of participation in derivative securities designed to reward market makers.

 

[woodisgood]

Doesn't that become a company union, which I believe is illegal.

Advanced manufacturing union. Open to all. Just because nobody else wants to join doesn’t make it illegal, does it?

Let’s call it FUMAN
Futuristic Union of Manufacturing, Aeronautics, and Nanotechnology