Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Cherry Wine]

Hmmm.

EDIT : I went to the page and viewed source and did not see this, so could be bogus.

EAP subscription $99? FSD subscription $199 (variable price)?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1397316701822226435

Interesting. I can't get my management page to load to verify. Will continue to try. They may be aware of the visibility of the source code and are removing it. Also, there are typos in the source code - "Subsciption".

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Interesting. I can't get my management page to load to verify. Will continue to try. They may be aware of the visibility of the source code and are removing it. Also, there are typos in the source code - "Subsciption".

Perhaps. But the typo and the odd syntax has a lot of people claiming it is bogus. Maybe I should delete it until it is verified.

 

[Hock1]

Did you mean GM?

Ford still has tons of free money coming under the existing EV credit.

GM is the one who ran out and needs a new one.

Though they're trying to slip in something to hit all EVs-

Irrespective of Ford's fate in the EV market, there is no getting around the fact that they have a current MC of around $50B and long term term debt of around $150B. Talk about "priced to perfection"! With a BEV offering of a vehicle that can get the same range, today, that a Model S got 8 years ago with 2/3 the battery capacity, I cannot see a path to survival.

 

[woodisgood]

Irrespective of Ford's fate in the EV market, there is no getting around the fact that they have a current MC of around $50B and long term term debt of around $150B. Talk about "priced to perfection"! With a BEV offering of a vehicle that can get the same range, today, that a Model S got 8 years ago, with 2/3 the battery capacity, I cannot see a path to survival.

I can - taxpayer bailout.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Hmmm. Now when I go the "Upgrades" part of my Tesla account I get a 500 error. Weird.

 

[WolfHero]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1397228814825046021

Just like the reporter who learnt his lesson many years back, folks finding out that Tesla has a Black Box type devices that can track everything.

Among the many components, this ability to record behavior and pull the logs has saved Tesla since the beginning.

Chinese Mandarin is my first language. After listening to that video, she is forced to make this apology video and not really mean it. Here is my translation (bolded emphasis added):

It has been quite a few days since I released new video. That's because I have received a *beep* (sounds like beginning word of lawyer) letter from Tesla. On May 15th, I posted a Tesla video on Tiktok and as a result of that Tesla sent me *beep* letter saying that I falsified and made up many facts and wanted me to delete my video and post apologize video.
Therefore I am apologizing to Tesla for posting video with unverified contents. Tesla, I am sorry.

Of course, as a car blogger, I hope every car has proper working brakes. Even if just one car that fails to brake properly, that's 100% damage to consumer.

Anyways, I am apologizing to Tesla for the damage it has received.

~~~Mod-edited for spelling clarity. Grammar and translation left as were.~~~

 

[Hock1]

Irrespective of Ford's fate in the EV market, there is no getting around the fact that they have a current MC of around $50B and long term term debt of around $150B. Talk about "priced to perfection"! With a BEV offering of a vehicle that can get the same range, today, that a Model S got 8 years ago with 2/3 the battery capacity, I cannot see a path to survival.

You're right. I should have added " in a free enterprise system".

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Interesting. I can't get my management page to load to verify. Will continue to try. They may be aware of the visibility of the source code and are removing it. Also, there are typos in the source code - "Subsciption".

I think it is bogus. The original and the one on Whole Mars Catalog were both deleted.

I deleted my original post about this. My apologies for confusion.

 

[willow_hiller]

I think it is bogus. The original and the one on Whole Mars Catalog were both deleted.

I deleted my original post about this.

Depending on what the code looked like, it probably was faked. The production React code has no prices embedded in it. Those are only loaded when the page is rendered.

And not to add petrol to the speculation flames, but it does appear like they are actively working on implementing some new pages. I don't believe I've seen "enableNewSubscriptionPage" and "enableNewUpgradesPage" on the Ownership tab API response before:

 

[elasalle]

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Depending on what the code looked like, it probably was faked

it was an odd combo of HTML and what appears to be JSON

 

[Blue horseshoe]

Based on ship loading times, I am estimating that Model 3s (and a few Ys) loaded onto ships in Q2 ran 20% higher than Q1.
For my Q2 financial model, I used a 14% increase (Q2 vs Q1). So if local deliveries (North America & China), keep up that pace, we should see a strong Q2.
I will post details tomorrow of the shipping activity.

View attachment 666216

Using back of the napkin math and your estimated growth of 20% Q1 to Q2 applied to total revenue for each quarter I have:
Q1 rev: 10.3 billion (actual)
Q2 rev: 12.4 billion (est)
Q3 rev: 14.9 billion (est)
Q4 rev: 17.9 billion (est)
2021 total rev: $55.5 billion (est) which would be inline with Teslas q1 accounting of Elon's Stock Based Compensation accounting for the fact that reaching the $55 billion in revenue milestone is probable. This can be found in the latest 10-q on page 22.


If tesla achieves $55 billion in revenue for 2021, at the current price to sales ratio of 19, tesla could see a corresponding sh price of $1,045. Fwiw.

 

[Cherry Wine]

it was an odd combo of HTML and what appears to be JSON

I finally got the page to load. Nothing in there that looked like the faked image.

EDIT:

There is this interesting bit though. Can't make total sense of it.

"details":[{"type":"list","content":["Navigate on Autopilot","Auto Lane Change","Autopark","Summon","Traffic Light and Stop Sign Control"]},{"type":"text","content":"Coming Soon"},{"type":"list","content":["Autosteer on city streets"]}]}],"subscribe":[],"enableFSD":false,"purchasedSubscriptions":[{"Title":"Premium Connectivity","Total":9.99,"Tax":0,"AutoRenew":true,

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Using back of the napkin math and your estimated growth of 20% Q1 to Q2 applied to total revenue for each quarter I have:
Q1 rev: 10.3 billion (actual)
Q2 rev: 12.4 billion (est)
Q3 rev: 14.9 billion (est)
Q4 rev: 17.9 billion (est)
2021 total rev: $55.5 billion (est) which would be inline with Teslas q1 accounting of Elon's Stock Based Compensation accounting for the fact that reaching the $55 billion in revenue milestone is probable. This can be found in the latest 10-q on page 22.
View attachment 666248

If tesla achieves $55 billion in revenue for 2021, at the current price to sales ratio of 19, tesla could see a corresponding sh price of $1,045. Fwiw.

Tesla wouldn’t have unlocked that tranche of 55 billion unless they felt confident they will comfortably exceed that number in total revenue for 2021. Or else why not wait to till Q2 earnings to see to be sure?

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Elon clarifies some things....

https://twitter.com/x/status/1397347380874203136

 

[Nocturnal]

Elon clarifies some things....

https://twitter.com/x/status/1397347380874203136

So...still two weeks?

 

[lascavarian]

So...still two weeks?

So will pure vision inactivate radar when it is loaded on an existing model? Sort of sounds like it might.

 

[Creekstalker]

So...two weeks?

Welp, I've had it.

This is like three months now I've been forced to wait on a potential breakthrough that will lead to a safer, happier, more economical and cleaner world.

Elon needs to improve the world faster.

 

[WattsHappening]

So will pure vision inactivate radar when it is loaded on an existing model? Sort of sounds like it might.

I sure hope so. If pure vision does away with phantom braking for overpasses as Elon indicated, EAP would be much more useable for me.

 

[Knightshade]

Irrespective of Ford's fate in the EV market, there is no getting around the fact that they have a current MC of around $50B and long term term debt of around $150B. Talk about "priced to perfection"! With a BEV offering of a vehicle that can get the same range, today, that a Model S got 8 years ago with 2/3 the battery capacity, I cannot see a path to survival.

Legacy auto "debt' is incredibly deceptive due to most having a captive finance arm.

Ford Motor Credit Is a Hidden Value Inside the Auto Maker

Separating financial statements for Ford’s automotive operations and the company’s auto finance operations isn’t easy, even for experienced analysts and investors. But it shows the hidden value in the company.

www.barrons.com

If you remove the financing stuff Ford has more cash than debt.

They're still worse off than tesla, certainly, but not NEARLY the dire situation your original #s imply.

So will pure vision inactivate radar when it is loaded on an existing model? Sort of sounds like it might.

That's...kinda what the word pure means?

You can always choose not to install the update as long as the vision-only restrictions are in place... (especially valuable for those who set AP speed above 75 for now)