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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
In relation to the 4680 ramp, I think it is on track.
Drew(?) said yields were good.
So what they are doing is accelerated cycle testing of the cells.
If there is any issue impact on cell longevity, they are making production changes and repeating...
IMO there is a good chance several versions of the cell are in the test cycle in labs, and some test cells are driving around in cars.
What they want to achieve is, the ability to give an 8 year warranty on the cells, that doesn't need 8 years of testing.
The also announced suppliers are doubling production next year, some of that may be 4680, but again those cells need to be tested.
It is possible that some of that increased production is in proven 18650, 2170 and prismatic LFP formats.
Like FSD, volume 4680 cell production may take a bit longer than we initially expected, the end result is way more important than the timeframe.
Same goes for the refreshed Model S/X, if it was easy, or a minor upgrade, Tesla would not find it hard to hit the target date. These delays tell me the product is worth the wait. I'm sure they could have cut corners and delivered a less ambitious upgrade earlier. In the long run, getting it right, wil pay dividends.
Overall earnings was a solid result, around what most people expected.
In relation to regulatory credits, Tesla has a good idea what the numbers will be, that gives them a bit more flexibility on pricing and margins.
While it does remain a talking point, I;ve never seen any evidence that these credits are going away anytime soon.
Drew(?) said yields were good.
So what they are doing is accelerated cycle testing of the cells.
If there is any issue impact on cell longevity, they are making production changes and repeating...
IMO there is a good chance several versions of the cell are in the test cycle in labs, and some test cells are driving around in cars.
What they want to achieve is, the ability to give an 8 year warranty on the cells, that doesn't need 8 years of testing.
The also announced suppliers are doubling production next year, some of that may be 4680, but again those cells need to be tested.
It is possible that some of that increased production is in proven 18650, 2170 and prismatic LFP formats.
Like FSD, volume 4680 cell production may take a bit longer than we initially expected, the end result is way more important than the timeframe.
Same goes for the refreshed Model S/X, if it was easy, or a minor upgrade, Tesla would not find it hard to hit the target date. These delays tell me the product is worth the wait. I'm sure they could have cut corners and delivered a less ambitious upgrade earlier. In the long run, getting it right, wil pay dividends.
Overall earnings was a solid result, around what most people expected.
In relation to regulatory credits, Tesla has a good idea what the numbers will be, that gives them a bit more flexibility on pricing and margins.
While it does remain a talking point, I;ve never seen any evidence that these credits are going away anytime soon.
How is Cybertruck going to be out in decent volume next year if 4680 production doesn't hit volume until around the end of 2022?
Flehmenlips
Member
They have not thought about the time domain, when solar power is delivered and where their car is when this happens. The car is nowhere near the panels!
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
It's probably a good assumption that the problem is making them such that they are reliable. It's still a manufacturing problem because the way you decrease the percentage of rejects is to increase the consistency of manufacture. They may need to go places ordinary battery manufactures would not dream of going. As off the cuff examples, harnessing static electricity or electromagnetic fields or special "print" nozzles to evenly deposit powders at the precise moment. Their first prototype solution is probably not going to work consistently enough (gravity fed hopper rollers).
But I'm not worried, this is what Tesla is good at - figuring out better ways to achieve a given result.
I did not hear that. I heard that battery qualification for all the misuse cases takes time. The structural pack is likely not critical path compared to life and safety qualification of the battery. It is prudent to run with 2170's until sure on the big battery.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
I think the current system has worked ok so far.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
You mean Corolla, right?
Toyota sells like 20-30% more Corollas worldwide than Ford sells F-150s
(granted, at much lower profit per vehicle).
Rest of the F-150 stuff deleted as that's not at all the target Elon was going for in his claim the Y will be the best selling vehicle in the world.
BTW, Elon has since clarified/slightly walked back that on Twitter-
Elon Musk said:
Obviously since the price on the Y is like 2-3x a corolla now they only need to sell like 600k in 2022 to hit that target instead of 1.5 million or something, with the 1.5 million coming in 2023.
He also confirmed HW2.x owners will be able to get HW upgrade via FSD subscription... (though no details- like if they'll have to pay a HW cost or be locked in for a certain # of months... one of which I expect has to be true versus you can sign up for 1 month, get upgraded, then quit)
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I bet red, and I'm correct about half of the time!
Headlines I’m seeing are pretty positive. “Earnings surge” “record income”. Maybe the media feels bad about that whole “blaming Tesla for killing people” thing.
uujjj2
Member
The Model Y is an absolute smash hit. It hits the US market's ideal spot in terms of size and utility, and is still small enough to sell in huge numbers in Europe and Asia. If they find a way to cut prices to the low 30s, Model Y unit sales will go bananas.
Now that would be assuming they had a soul and ethics
.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Elon taught me a lesson today. He didn't give a flying crap about that conf call, nor should he.
I stand by my rantings over the last month calling for leverage, but it's just silly to try and time anything with this company. Absolute blowout deliveries that pretty much ensure the plan is on track.....minimal reaction.
This quarter was great, but I think the lack of pizazz and guidance boost on the call may keep us relatively flat on SP. Maybe close the week at $750. Perhaps I'm wrong and we crack $800, but that'll be about it. Tho I do trust this new Zack system of under-promise and over-deliver
I'm excited to get back to pure HODLing and tracking this idea of 100% growth company with a 150/1 PE. We're clearly on track. When we hit thise numbers I'll start looking for leverage again.
* and maybe play some of the more obvious MMD's
I stand by my rantings over the last month calling for leverage, but it's just silly to try and time anything with this company. Absolute blowout deliveries that pretty much ensure the plan is on track.....minimal reaction.
This quarter was great, but I think the lack of pizazz and guidance boost on the call may keep us relatively flat on SP. Maybe close the week at $750. Perhaps I'm wrong and we crack $800, but that'll be about it. Tho I do trust this new Zack system of under-promise and over-deliver
I'm excited to get back to pure HODLing and tracking this idea of 100% growth company with a 150/1 PE. We're clearly on track. When we hit thise numbers I'll start looking for leverage again.
* and maybe play some of the more obvious MMD's
I think this is entirely possible, honestly.
portnoy just got schooled.
I don’t understand why he asked the question in the first place, if he wanted to spread his false réthorique narrative, he should just have said Tesla is a whole Bitcoin pump n dump elaborated Ponzi scheme.
going on social media is more a FUD debunking line of work than a source of information nowadays.
If Tesla ships 1M autos in 2021, I'd like to think TSLA will be valued at higher than $1T by next year.
OK about 45 minutes into the call Zach says, and I quote very unexactly:
"we are heavy into 4680 development that Drew and team are working on and the structural battery pack that goes along with that. These are new technologies ... so we're investing heavily in the r&d side to work out those kinks and spend along in those areas should continue over time as we continue to work on development."
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