Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

That looks like more FUD! The four corner dots make the square look more than 2x than it is....

My first FUDdle Duddle.
I was using an area map simulator, ya know all high tech!

 

[SOULPEDL]

How do they know it wasn't from the heavy weight they put on the steering wheel to fool the computer?

Dang, this whole "there was no driver at impact" thing was such a transparent lie and yet people still fell for it. When will people learn?

I felt really good when Elon was shaming the media on the lies. They deserved every word. And maybe even more words on SNL. I can't wait!!!

 

[thx1139]

From all of Elon's comments on virtual power plants, I wouldn't count on vehicle-to-grid anytime soon. Especially after the Texas snow storm, it seems like Tesla's main motivation in bundling Solar+Powerwall is to use home battery storage to stabilize the grid.

A grid connected vehicle definitely has a lot of value to an individual homeowner, but it offers less reliability to the grid when it can literally disconnect and drive off at will. Imagine if a grid-destabilizing natural disaster happened, and just when the grid operators need the extra capacity from the Tesla VPP, half of the vehicles in the network disconnect and drive away.

I think this is why Powerwall will always be Tesla's preferred solution. Bolted to the wall, reliable grid buffer with the click of a button.

I think V2G will happen when Tesla Robotaxi fleet happens.

 

[Cattledog]

Brief aside, did anyone else notice the capital V in "Tesla Vision" on page 8 of the slide deck? Maybe new product name for the AI?

"We believe that a vision-only system is ultimately all that is needed for full autonomy. Our AI-based software architecture has been increasingly reliant on cameras, to the point where radar is becoming unnecessary earlier than expected. As a result, our FSD team is fully focused on evolving to a vision-based autonomous system and we are nearly ready to switch the US market to Tesla Vision."

Eerily similar to Wonka Vision. Maybe a Cybertruck can be beamed to your TSLA 3D printer and you print one at home. SpaceX Mars tech. Stranger things have happened...

 

[Artful Dodger]

The vehicle-to-grid pipe dream just refuses to die.

It should.

Ah, don't you have a CyberTruck reservation?

 

[bkp_duke]

Not so fast! With sales growth like we saw last quarter, how do you know Tesla didn't have a covert advertising operation going on?

/s

Did you just unmask Gordo's REAL funding source?!?!?!?!

 

[SOULPEDL]

Seems like a good way to tell us we have to pay for the upgrade from FSD to Tesla Vision

Oh, imagine this... If you want the Real World AI with our FSD, that's an upgrade but your safety factor doubles. The Animal AI feature would give you enhanced ability to avoid all those critters crossing. Snow and Ice included if you order now!

 

[JusRelax]

I felt really good when Elon was shaming the media on the lies. They deserved every word. And maybe even more words on SNL. I can't wait!!!

Oh wow, is Elon in a fighting mood today lol:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1386825367948644352

 

[SN_8]

I find it fascinating that Elon communicates much more effectively via Twitter than on conference calls. Not a criticism. Just an observation.

Elon without Twitter would be like Mozart without a piano.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1386825367948644352

Edit: @JusRelax beat me to it. MOD: NO. And this is not just to this poster, but to ALL: If you find yourself having double-posted someone with slightly quicker fingers, you DO NOT edit and say “Beat me to it”. Rather you edit by hitting the “Delete”.
STOP CLUTTERING THIS THREAD WITH UTTERLY USELESS DUPLICATE AND NEAR-DUPLICATE POSTS.

 

[bkp_duke]

Oh wow, is Elon in a fighting mood today lol:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1386825367948644352

Billionaire battle royale!

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Well I mean I'm not really a believer in P/E for a growth company. I find it to be naïve way of determining value. Forward P/E is better, but still not really representative of a company's value.

But Wall St loves to say Tesla is overvalued and they continually point to TTM(Trailing Twelve Month) P/E. For a mature company, TTM P/E is more appropriate. The business has matured and is no longer focused on growth and thus actually trying to maximize earnings. The reason it's naïve for a growth company is that said growth company will quickly outpace the P/E when things like operational leverage or a key part of the business reaches mass scale. A growth company, if the stock priced stayed the same price, can very quickly go from being expensive to very cheap in the matter of a couple quarters. Most smart investors see the trend beforehand and buy in well before those events take place.

Any smart investor is going to look at what Tesla managed to achieve in Q1 and then do the math to figure out that when 3/Y production in China reaches it's full scale (at least for now) and when S/X is back to full production, that the P/E is going to plummet for the stock(if it stayed at this price). Then they're going to do the math and say "Well if Tesla can do $2 EPS Non GAAP from just Fremont and China with no FSD/subscription revenue, then they can easily double, if not triple EPS by end of 2022 when Giga Texas and Giga Berlin are in full production"

I'm really liking the fact we can look at a P/E with some sort of gameplans and trajectory. A 50-100% growth monster shouldn't even be looking at profits let alone a decent P/E, but this'll be nice for shutting up the naysayers.

So this time next year are we looking at a $1T 150/1 PE company in the middle if back-to-back years of 100% growth? It's possible.....and would be absolutely absurd.

 

[OrthoSurg]

I’m used to a run up before a profit taking.
Now, I’m not used to no run up and above expectations earning calls with -2.5%

 

[MartinAustin]

This was as boring of an earnings call as it could possibly be - without being actually boring - given all the incredible and amazing things Tesla has achieved and is working on. Showing great maturity and giving critics less and less room to maneuver.

Regarding his amazing comment that the Model Y will be the fastest-selling vehicle across all categories in 2022... it ain't that impossible when you consider: the F-150 is the only one to beat to be #1, and there are two ways you can do that... you either sell more than the F-150, or you reduce F-150 sales. (or both) Cybertruck is going to be out in decent volume 2022. There will definitely be media reviews, youtube reviews, and lots of footage of the early Cybertrucks going through their paces. This will be enough to really put the brakes on F-150 demand, as lots of would-be Raptor/F-150 buyers decide to hold off and put orders in for Cybertruck. So the Cybertruck will be running interference for Model Y as the latter goes for the #1 sales touchline. Tesla will go from two worldwide factories producing Model Y in 2021 - including the (arguably) least-efficient one - to four in 2022, adding the two most efficient factories across the whole company.

Four factories pumping away at Model Y and Cybertruck gnawing at orders of the Ford F-150 will help Model Y get to #1.

Can't wait to see Ford's profits melt away in 2022, like some wax Henry Ford at a wax museum that's on fire.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Started out strong, let the lead slip, but then held steady for the win. They are now 4 games above 0.500 for the first time since Feb 22nd. Didn't seem to be a lot of interest in this outing, with all eyes on tomorrow's contest. After the game, the odds makers seem to be pointing towards disappointment tomorrow, but with Team Tesla, you never know.

Today
Score:	738.20
Margin of W/L:	8.80
Attendance:	31,038,502
High - Low:	16.69
Season
Record:	41-37
Total margin of wins:	920.40
Total margin of losses:	-887.87
YTD gain/loss:	32.53	4.61%
Best Win:	110.58	Mar 9
Worst Loss:	-68.83	Jan 11
Last 10:	7-3
Streak:	W2
Avg margin of victory:	22.45
Avg margin of defeat:	-24.00
Avg Attendance:	33,878,504
Avg Attendance of Last 10:	35,389,209
Avg High - Low:	41.42
Avg H - L of Last 10:	33.36

 

[Chunky Jr.]

One thing I'd like to see Tesla improve on is that they often say "it was harder than expected", so next time they should assume it will be harder than expected and plan, as well as guide/communicate, accordingly.

 

[Curt Renz]

Bloomberg - hour ago:

 

[mickle]

From listening to the call, I noted at least twice when they were talking about issues ramping up batteries, they specifically said something like "4680 cells and the structural battery pack". To me it sounds like they are also having some delays related to figuring out how to produce the structural pack assembly.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Brief aside, did anyone else notice the capital V in "Tesla Vision" on page 8 of the slide deck? Maybe new product name for the AI?

"We believe that a vision-only system is ultimately all that is needed for full autonomy. Our AI-based software architecture has been increasingly reliant on cameras, to the point where radar is becoming unnecessary earlier than expected. As a result, our FSD team is fully focused on evolving to a vision-based autonomous system and we are nearly ready to switch the US market to Tesla Vision."

 

[Singuy]

From listening to the call, I noted at least twice when they were talking about issues ramping up batteries, they specifically said something like "4680 cells and the structural battery pack". To me it sounds like they are also having some delays related to figuring out how to produce the structural pack assembly.

Making the batteries doesn't seem to be the issue. The issue is reliability(with no details) according to Musk.

 

[ZeApelido]

Musk still trolling Bezos

https://twitter.com/x/status/1386841861323698177