Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EVDRVN]

It would be great if Elon was aware enough to realize that much of his online behavior is distructive to Tesla and it’s mission

We know other EVs are not Tesla killers, those come from within the company

 

[Remus]

It would be great if Elon was aware enough to realize that much of his online behavior is distructive to Tesla and it’s mission

pedo tweets? yes.
funding secured, well let's say yes.

hasn't he changed a lot since then?

 

[NicoV]

This makes total sense and mirrors the delivery pattern in the US.

However, my location is one of the furthest from Zeebrugge (South of France), and since Tesla owners apparently have priority, I thought my car (a fairly standard M3LR/Dual Motor/midnight grey/black interior/19"wheels) would have been delivered by now. I take this as a positive sign... Tesla seems to have a good backlog of waiting customers, which isn't limited to those close to Zeebrugge.

South of France is only a day’s drive from Zeebrugge. So whether you get you car in Q1 will depend on how many available car carriers they have. The same car carrier can deliver 6 or 8 cars to south of France in let’s say 48 hours, or 100 in Ghent.

BTW: I haven’t seen this mentioned here, but on the Benelux Model 3 facebook group, somebody commented (responding to people complaining that they didn’t get their car yet) that he personally went to Zeebrugge and described the situation of loading car carriers as ‘hectic’, 24/7. Car carriers waiting all over the place to get loaded, often in places where they’re not supposed to be because there’s no place elsewhere.

 

[InDaClub]

Fiat Chrysler to recall more than 860,000 vehicles in new emissions probe, EPA says

Fiat Chrysler Automobiles will recall more than 860,000 vehicles in United States over findings from emissions investigations, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

The EPA said Fiat Chrysler will need to replace catalytic converters on vehicles, including the Jeep Compass and Chrysler 200.

 

[mongo]

I actually think the 500k tweet and ensuing fallout is what his "fate loves irony" tweet was referencing. If I recall correctly, the SEC had already reached out to Tesla at that point.

Yeah, "Fate loves irony" post was Monday, Feb 25, the day after the SEC gave a 6 hour deadline, on a Sunday, for more information.And the day that the SEC filed the the contempt motion.

The act of trying to cover his bases caused more trouble...

 

[jbcarioca]

After quickly reading all the documents I reach the conclusion that the most probable outcome will be dismissal of the SEC case. However, since the SEC requested more time there certainly will be surprises. There is far too much evidence and precedence in support of Musk/Tesla to imagine another likely resolution. I also will be unsurprised if the SEC were to receive a serious rebuke, possibly even some degree of invalidation of the original order. Further, it seems quite obvious that the SEC will be required to reveal the sources of their due diligence investigation.

Court proceedings are never completely assured, so it is imprudent to be giddily optimistic. OTOH, were I a D&O insurance underwriter I would not reserve anything for Tesla/Musk. I would not underwrite the SEC on this one, their unjustified market moving is abundantly clear. (see: Noe charts and statement)

 

[NicoV]

haha, yeah, but come on....Bond is supposed to have the best car....no other EV out there can compare to the new Roadster....#moviefail already before movie is out.

I want to see the action shots when it is charging!

 

[KarenRei]

I want to see the action shots when it is charging!

Think of how long it'll be able to sustain 250kW for. It'll probably be able to put on a Model 3 LR's entire range in 20 minutes.

Of course, they'll likely design it to be capable of taking even higher powers, with plans for some future "V4" Supercharger upgrade down the road.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

My hope is that they design it from the outset with two wheelbases, which does not imply both have to come to market simultaneously.

Europe needs the option of a less bulky conveyance, while vehicles sized like the Nissan Rogue and Toyota RAV4 also sell very well in the US.

See [Top 5 Small SUV Sales USA 2018]:

Model Month Month LY Change YTD YTD LY YTD Change
Toyota RAV4 38,669 32,542 18.83 427,168 407,594 4.80
Nissan Rogue 42,523 40,172 5.85 412,110 403,465 2.14
Honda CR-V 42,079 37,002 13.72 379,021 378,600 0.11
Chevrolet Equinox 33,172 32,784 1.18 332,621 290,458 14.52
Ford Escape 20,147 26,253 -23.26 272,228 308,296 -11.70

Source & complete data set:
December 2018 YTD U.S. SUV And Crossover Sales Rankings – Every SUV Ranked | GCBC

Europe 2018
Nissan Qashqai [== Rogue Sport in the US] 229.382
Nissan X-Trail [== Rogue in the US] 48.133
Source:
http://carsalesbase.com/european-car-sales-data/nissan/

Helluva market.

Looking around, the RAV4 wheelbase is only 104.7” vs the Model 3’s 113.2”. Even the Highlander is only 109.8”. Looking at length, adding the same 4” to the 3 that the X added to the S, you get 188.8”. Length of RAV4 is 181.1” and Highlander is 192.5”.

I’m thinking it’ll be much closer to the Highlander than the RAV4.

 

[myt-e-s-l-a]

Rolling above PUTS to 270 190315 puts 5x for credit of 6.30$/contract.
Max profit 3150$.

CLOSING above puts @.60/contract. Profit 2850$
reloaded for Model Y announcement tomorrow.

Another 9.82 free tsla shrs to the Long account.

 

[KarenRei]

Looking around, the RAV4 wheelbase is only 104.7” vs the Model 3’s 113.2”. Even the Highlander is only 109.8”. Looking at length, adding the same 4” to the 3 that the X added to the S, you get 188.8”. Length of RAV4 is 181.1” and Highlander is 192.5”.

I’m thinking it’ll be much closer to the Highlander than the RAV4.

You can be assured however that it'll have more rear taper than either the Highlander or RAV4, for aero (something Tesla rightly obsesses over, as it's critical to the ability to road trip well). This means longer for a given amount of passenger space, since passengers require a given amount of headroom.

 

[AudubonB]

After quickly reading all the documents I reach the conclusion that the most probable outcome will be dismissal of the SEC case. However, since the SEC requested more time there certainly will be surprises. There is far too much evidence and precedence in support of Musk/Tesla to imagine another likely resolution. I also will be unsurprised if the SEC were to receive a serious rebuke, possibly even some degree of invalidation of the original order. Further, it seems quite obvious that the SEC will be required to reveal the sources of their due diligence investigation.

Court proceedings are never completely assured, so it is imprudent to be giddily optimistic. OTOH, were I a D&O insurance underwriter I would not reserve anything for Tesla/Musk. I would not underwrite the SEC on this one, their unjustified market moving is abundantly clear. (see: Noe charts and statement)

What is your reasoning for that juicy tidbit?

 

[Curt Renz]

Electrek - 9 minutes ago: Tesla Model 3 takes over Europe

 

[JustAaronnoraA]

The exact quote was: "My hope is *all* current investors remain with Tesla even if we’re private. Would create special purpose fund enabling anyone to stay with Tesla. Already do this with Fidelity’s SpaceX investment."

He was clearly misled by the current Fidelity arrangement with SpaceX (which basically allows SpaceX investment but heavily dilutes it).



More specifically:

• He previously announced a Model Y unveiling around mid March.
• Who would believe the base price on the Model Y if they hadn't delivered it on the Model 3?
• I believe that they have a serious interest in unveiling it now because it's further along than people like Adam Jonas think - that it's more like Gerber says, a launch around the end of this year with peak rates by the end of next year. So they have to launch it soon, so that people who would have an interest in it avoid making alternative vehicle purchases (said people clearly aren't M3 buyers, or the vast majority already would have bought).
• More on that launch timeline in a second...

This question isn't addressed to me, but since I've raised Lathrop several times before, a few notes:

• I don't believe for a second that it's just a "warehouse". The place is freaking huge.
• Tesla keeps hiring manufacturing people to work there - generally engineers, not line workers. It's been said that there's some part manufacturing done there, and I'll believe that, but again, I can't believe that this uses up that whole space, or even a large fraction of it.
• A number of the job ads for Lathrop have included requirements for work at multiple locations. For example, there was a job ad for someone at Lathrop to build an alumium parts foundry for the Model Y, which involved regular travel to Giga.
• All together, this makes me think that they're developing tooling at Lathrop to transfer to Giga. E.g. that Lathrop is doing something similar to what Grohmann does.

Thanks for the insights Karen. Lathrop just seem very odd to me as there is no coverage about it what so ever. No one mentioned/ask anything about it on CC. Its definitely a wildcard. Potentially a mini-factory to build/test new vehicles in small volume or relocating low volume legacy models SX or semi or roadster.

 

[Nocturnal]

My local Tesla owner Facebook group is closing in on 20 confirmed upgrades, a decent mix of Model 3 at $2k and S/X at $3k. And that's just the members that semi-publicly confirmed their purchase. That's a floor of ~$50k incremental revenue from existing owners in one small neck of the woods, with the actual Colorado region being far higher than that.

I think a LOT of people are jumping on the 2k upgrade for FSD, plus however many are doing AP upgrades.

 

[KarenRei]

Thanks for the insights Karen. Lathrop just seem very odd to me as there is no coverage about it what so ever. No one mentioned/ask anything about it on CC.

I know, it's just weird, right? How can this company build this huge building and have nobody care what's going on there? The place is half a kilometer long and has about 10 hectares of floor space (assuming it's only one story inside). I mean, it's not Tesla Factory or Gigafactory sized, but it's definitely big.

 

[jerry33]

I know, it's just weird, right? How can this company build this huge building and have nobody care what's going on there?

Probably no one wants to go there: Laicanthropy.

 

[MP3Mike]

Think of how long it'll be able to sustain 250kW for. It'll probably be able to put on a Model 3 LR's entire range in 20 minutes.

Of course, they'll likely design it to be capable of taking even higher powers, with plans for some future "V4" Supercharger upgrade down the road.

Maybe they will go with the "easy" route and put a charging inlet on both sides of the car and you can use two V3 stalls at the same time for a 500kW charging rate. Then we will get all sorts of complaints about 2020 Roadster owners hogging 2 Supercharger stalls.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Lol this Tesla price action is so predictable. It was up 3% when I started my morning workout. I told myself "watch this is barely going to be up 1% by the time I'm done working out"...……...it never fails

Also I love how the analysts predicting a demand drop off are plastered all over yahoo finance/CNBC/etc...….but I can't find any articles on the analysts that were just at Tesla HQ with IR and relayed back that they're selling every car they make.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

After quickly reading all the documents I reach the conclusion that the most probable outcome will be dismissal of the SEC case. However, since the SEC requested more time there certainly will be surprises. There is far too much evidence and precedence in support of Musk/Tesla to imagine another likely resolution. I also will be unsurprised if the SEC were to receive a serious rebuke, possibly even some degree of invalidation of the original order. Further, it seems quite obvious that the SEC will be required to reveal the sources of their due diligence investigation.

Court proceedings are never completely assured, so it is imprudent to be giddily optimistic. OTOH, were I a D&O insurance underwriter I would not reserve anything for Tesla/Musk. I would not underwrite the SEC on this one, their unjustified market moving is abundantly clear. (see: Noe charts and statement)

I don't know, this is a government agency we're talking about. The track record for government agencies being held in a negative light isn't real strong. After all, there are a lot more egregious actions the SEC has taken (or not taken as the case may be...aka short manipulation) that has gone unpunished in any way, shapem, or form. It would not surprise me if the court found in the SEC's favor. Not because I think it is right, but because I'm not totally comfortable with the American justice system. (I can say that, I'm an American lol)

Dan