Mickey should keep his little hand to himself. Especially on a family-friendly forum.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Not sure if they did because landing burn looked like all 3 engines fired back up.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Big pop according to who? Nobody knows these things. Look at it this way:
We've known the S&P 500 inclusion date since Nov. 16th when the price was $408. Anyone who wanted to take a gamble with a million here and a million there has had 16 trading days to place their short-term bet and the price has run up as high as $650 so far. We have no way to know what the price will be when the mandatory buying starts or how many "loose" or speculative shares are out there now or when the mandatory buying begins. It's entirely possible we have already seen the top until we get new catalysts from TSLA's execution or new announcements. Or there could be a huge shortage of willing sellers and we could get a huge price squeeze. Anyone who claims to know what will happen is either lying or deluding themselves.
If I was going to bet on this, I would position myself so I would benefit from some nice volatility (but that would have been done better before this drop). I'm thinking it might go lower in the short-term, cruise back up to around $600 (or much higher if a squeeze actually happens) and then settle down afterwards to around current levels. But that's just a wild-ass guess and I guarantee you that no one really knows and the market has a wonderful way of surprising even the most thoughtful analyses. Because, and this is key, the market prices these expectations in as it goes. It could remain amazingly steady (considering the event and all the attention) and leave us scratching our heads as to how that happened. If that happens, it will be because the market guessed correctly.
It's also highly dependent upon the macro environment which, IMO, is currently well positioned to do just about anything from entering into a major bear correction to going on a wild, no holds barred, irrational bull run. Party on Garth. We are entering a period of especially high uncertainty. No one knows what will happen and it kills me the amount of mental energy people put into trying to make sense of the market. BECAUSE THAT DOESN"T WORK. Successful traders move on fearless instinct, they generally don't plan it out in advance. They act on a moments notice and crouch in wait for superior opportunities to present themselves. This is probably not one of them (although a good trader will probably see opportunities present themselves through this event depending upon how it goes).
If there is a squeeze it doesn't do an individual speculator much good unless they get the timing of it right. I'm thinking any substantial squeeze that does start to happen will quickly be recognized for what it is and will be sold into, snuffing it out before it can become truly incredible. But that assumes enough speculative shares to met demand,
I'm far more interested in price appreciation realized through the market gaining a new understanding of who Tesla really is and what they have than gains realized via squeezes and speculation. Because one has a certain amount of stamina/substance and the other is just a meaningless flash in the pan.
NahSpace-X Starship SN8, It's not a crash just a quick disassembly
The correct term is "rapid unscheduled disassembly"
It's one of my favorite clips on YouTube
adiggs
Well-Known Member
post split a $66 dollar swing
And a reminder that the recent moves sort of fall into the range of noise / typical TSLA swings.
The only thing about now that is different is (everything) the S&P 500 inclusion. And since the programmed / required buying hasn't started yet, I put this into the noise category.
Or buying opportunity category, but I missed my chance (work getting in the way - THAT is going to stop happening soon) and then end of trading day.
But if we don't open up bigly tomorrow, then I may have to scrape up the residue of cash not yet committed, and buy me some more calls; maybe the Dec 18 700s this time....
They won't. They only report total produced and delivered in two break-downs: 3/Y and S/X. (Unless they start doing something new, which I don't expect them to do.)
adiggs
Well-Known Member
For a first test flight, I make this as better than any reasonable and most unreasonable expectations.
1) Didn't blow up on the launch pad. check.
2) Controlled ascent (didn't go wandering off somewhere). check.
3) Even turned off some engines, intentionally, along the way; still controlled ascent. check. (NOTE: Watching the engines gymbal wildly at the shutoff to find the new balance point, and then continue on with a new center of thrust - wow)
4) Rolled over and fell in a controlled fashion to the right location (didn't aim for somebody's house; always a plus). check
-- probably should have already blown up by now
5) Got turned back around for landing (maybe going too fast at this point?). check
6) Finally missed sticking the landing by really only a little bit (based on SpaceX's previous history with landing Falcon 9). argh!
Solving the stick-the-landing problem might be more than trivial (such as some degree of Raptor engine redesign), but otherwise this is at least as good as the early Falcon 9 attempts to land.
Coming in too hot was an early problem. Landing and then sliding off (oops). And we know that they know how to solve those problems - they're doing it so routinely now that the launch threads aren't even getting to a second page any more.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Watch it in super slow mo, looks like only one, and that one was firing with a weird green flame.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
If you didn't give a hoot about Tesla and just traded professionally, why in the hell wouldn't you sell at $630 having bought 5 minutes ago(relatively speaking) at $430? These are the front-runners who spiked the price AH 2 minutes after inclusion was announced. They're taking the sure thing that in front of them.
That being said, it's mostly a function of traders creating volatility in a vacuum and MM taking advantage of the same. If no one's really buying or selling.....why not push the SP down, trigger a bunch of stop losses, and pay out far fewer options contracts this week. Maybe even next week if they're lucky!
Pay attention and look for opportunities.
That being said, it's mostly a function of traders creating volatility in a vacuum and MM taking advantage of the same. If no one's really buying or selling.....why not push the SP down, trigger a bunch of stop losses, and pay out far fewer options contracts this week. Maybe even next week if they're lucky!
Pay attention and look for opportunities.
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Krugerrand
Meow
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I'm in the camp of Tesla executing/allocating all equity shares today, plus the max overage, but we might not hear officially until a week or so? Not sure of when.
Also, I'm in the camp of thinking that we will see 100M+ shares off the market and in the hands of S&P index funds which will drive up the price (guessing we'll hit about $800 and anything above that is gravy/icing) and we'll come back down when the crazy buying spree is over (less than two weeks after buying starts on the 18th).
My bets are to ride the volatility with options trading to have trades of CC's that I'm very happy to sell at and sell puts where I'm very happy to buy back those shares at. And if that doesn't happen where any of my shares are called away or they are put back, I'll be happy to collect the premiums.
Another way to say this is that I'm HODL, but raising dry powder off of volatility to buy more when it seems prudent.
Also, I'm in the camp of thinking that we will see 100M+ shares off the market and in the hands of S&P index funds which will drive up the price (guessing we'll hit about $800 and anything above that is gravy/icing) and we'll come back down when the crazy buying spree is over (less than two weeks after buying starts on the 18th).
My bets are to ride the volatility with options trading to have trades of CC's that I'm very happy to sell at and sell puts where I'm very happy to buy back those shares at. And if that doesn't happen where any of my shares are called away or they are put back, I'll be happy to collect the premiums.
Another way to say this is that I'm HODL, but raising dry powder off of volatility to buy more when it seems prudent.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Poetry.
Explains SP decline today.
A lot of traders use this heuristic:
1. They believe the market is mostly efficient
2. They believe that the market undervalues aspect X, such as FSD, S&P inclusion, Tesla energy, Shanghai production, Cybertruck demand and margins, Semi fleet service, you name it
3. 1+2 implies that until the market correctly understands X, the share price will be undervalued no matter if the price is $430 or $630
There is also a possibility of
2.1 They believe the market overvalues the value of aspect X -> the price is overvalued at $630 and at $430
The day they decide that 2 is true, that is the day decide to enter the trade, the day they believe 2 is no longer true is the day the decide to exist the trade. And the former might happen very randomly, a friend saying something, a newspaper saying something, a thought in the hammock etc.
That sounds about right! The landing issue should be easy* to take care of; the small header tank didn't have enough fuel in it, leading to the engines being very low on fuel. As there is at the same time lots of very hot, very pure oxygen under very high pressure in the engine, and no fuel to disperse it a bit, the engine starts to become very melty. There are very few things as destructive as pure hot oxygen under pressure.
I'm completely overjoyed over this! We're seeing the future being built in front of our eyes.
*Easy for SpaceX
Ps: Sorry mods, last post on this for my part.
Hi Audie, his shares of 510 and 570 are post split. Hie pre-split amounts of 102 and 114 are odd numbers but likely because he's buy a few at a time as he could afford them. He started in early 2013. His cost for all his shares was $59k.
Have you sold the Alaska property yet? How's the family? Well, I hope.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
$591 AH is a bit surprising to me. I'd say first thing tomorrow presents a great call buying opportunity, but I'd be wasting my breath. Magically the pricing of said options will be absurd, or we'll open at $623.
This volatility premium best still be in place when I go to sell my covered calls in 2 weeks!
This volatility premium best still be in place when I go to sell my covered calls in 2 weeks!
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
I feel like we had this exact issue with early Falcon landing efforts. Should be easy enough to apply the same tweaks. #easyforspacex
Per Elon's twitter, the engines were fine and the header tank pressure was too low which starved them.
Per me: landing was two engines, followed by one then the other dying the green death.
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