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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Holy crap. That's just crazy. Who spends enough time at burger king that a 25 mile per hour charge is worth plugging in to.

I've had to use a blink charger once, in Seattle. And it was a frustrating experience for which I didn't feel like it was worth the effort when I unplugged in the end.
Premarket OT: I'm not familiar at all with blink. I have a position with Chargepoint/SBE myself. I've used their charger extensively myself and even worked with them directly on some billing interfaces through my day job. Easy to use software and nice customer experience that just works. I don't think they are some amazing company but they are in the right place and right time to really take advantage of this green energy push.

You don’t want to miss this!

CNBC is going to debate “Elon is moving to Texas” topic next. Amazing!

Argh. Basically have the internet is milking this topic and it's driving me crazy.

I think it is very, very smart for tesla to use the cap raise to pay down debt. I know the corporate mantra for many years has been 'load up on debt and who cares', but we are entering uncharted waters in terms of global economies, with pandemics, political instability, climate change and who knows what direction interest rates will go in the future. Having little to no debt is an incredibly strong position to be in, and I'm very happy as an investor to see them take that step.

It also weakens the argument for bailing out car companies that get in trouble, as wise politicians can ask why the so-called experts at GM, Ford etc did not manage their debt like tesla did when they come begging to the government for help (again).

Also its a good point to be able to make to potential car buyers. Do you want a car from a financially stable company? or one from a debt-laden dinosaur that might crash and burn next year?
In the standard MBA environment you are taught that it's stupid to not load up on debt due to tax reasons as it's basically free money. Technically that's true but it does increase risk as you described. Perhaps this is a good strategy for stable companies with flat revenue but we all know that Tesla isn't in that category for many reasons.
 
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T minus 5 minutes for max q…

The max q condition is the point when an investor’s portfolio aerospace vehicle's atmospheric flight reaches maximum dynamic pressure from pre-market announcements. This is a significant factor in the design of such a portfolio vehicles because the gain/loss because of aerodynamic structural load on them is proportional to the contents of such announcements dynamic pressure. This may impose limits on the stock’s vehicle's flight envelope.
(Max q - Wikipedia)

(almost *sugar* my pants yesterday when I saw that happening…
Gave me a chance though to sell some lower-leverage stuff and buy back higher-leverage, basically adding a another Falcon booster for the way back up ;))

OK, throttling down for max q now
(and then back up to that $665-ish where we were before this all happened yesterday!)

Roger, TSLA, go for throttle up!
 
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Holy crap. That's just crazy. Who spends enough time at burger king that a 25 mile per hour charge is worth plugging in to.

I've had to use a blink charger once, in Seattle. And it was a frustrating experience for which I didn't feel like it was worth the effort when I unplugged in the end.

I could see this as being useful for folks who have no way to charge an EV at home or work. Adding fifteen miles of range over lunch could be enough for a city dweller. Of course they better make sure people don’t end up wasting lots of time with codes and credit cards and broken charging spots
 
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Breaking news, the geniuses at JP Morgan have raised their TSLA price target 12.5%.

...

From $80 to $90. :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

Really. Did they hire Gordon Johnson to help come up with that PT?

JPMorgan analyst Ryan Brinkman raised the price target on Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) to $90.00 (from $80.00) while maintaining a Underweight ....

Pay site link: jpmorgan tsla - Google Search

Ryan Brinkman
J.P. Morgan
Wall Street Analyst
Ranked #6,552 out of 7,138 Analysts on TipRanks (#13,755 out of 14,917 overall experts)

THE BEST AND THE BRIGHTEST!!! /s

Average
Return
-3.6%
 
I think hes just pointing out Tesla autopilot team have put in a metric *sugar* ton of work into this and it's no small achievement.
Agree. Very interesting and thought provoking.
I think he is tongue-in-cheek because he is trying to walk a high-wire line of doing relevant reverse-engineering without revealing too much, raising the ire of Tesla legal or Musk.
One way to read it is plausible deniability: 'I was just dreaming'. There is also a tone of almost disbelief - they are further along than he thought: It is too good to be true.

His observations re. all the settings and meta-data/annotation/'augmented reality' are interesting. Maybe it is not either-or: Either classical programming, or ML/AI/Neural nets. Maybe the ML builds up a really detailed world-view - maybe more detailed than perhaps thought to make sense previously.
What are the potential benefits? Well, first of all the real-world understanding seem to be highly detailed. If it is also correct then this means that the ML-layer generating this is very good. Then that high-level world understanding is then served up to a different software layer. This layer can then drive the car - or illustrate it driving. (Some of the parameters seem game-like in that they offer the ability to fine-tune rendering of visual representation)
Is the driving layer traditionally coded or ML? We don't know. Would it make sense to have to 2 different ML-layers, one for world-view generation, and one for driving? Maybe it is legacy stuff, because the old driving software (and maybe still is) was traditionally coded.
Perhaps it still makes sense to keep this architecture to have a lot of hyper-parameters for tuning various stuff. The separation of concern also allows for debugging or verification scenarios. For developers, this would be observer-modes, debugging, or meta-observer modes.

For more visually inclined, think West World late season 2 where Maeve has the vertigo-inducing sensation of observing herself thinking, and speaking, and thinking about thinking (and thinking about thinking about ..) and early season 3 where Bernard either hacks, self-diagnoses or does a repository-rollback to another version of himself, depending on what base-layer of reality you initially assume.

(Disclaimer: I don't have any deep background in AI/ML)
 
Agree. Very interesting and thought provoking.
I think he is tongue-in-cheek because he is trying to walk a high-wire line of doing relevant reverse-engineering without revealing too much, raising the ire of Tesla legal or Musk.
One way to read it is plausible deniability: 'I was just dreaming'. There is also a tone of almost disbelief - they are further along than he thought: It is too good to be true.

His observations re. all the settings and meta-data/annotation/'augmented reality' are interesting. Maybe it is not either-or: Either classical programming, or ML/AI/Neural nets. Maybe the ML builds up a really detailed world-view - maybe more detailed than perhaps thought to make sense previously.
What are the potential benefits? Well, first of all the real-world understanding seem to be highly detailed. If it is also correct then this means that the ML-layer generating this is very good. Then that high-level world understanding is then served up to a different software layer. This layer can then drive the car - or illustrate it driving. (Some of the parameters seem game-like in that they offer the ability to fine-tune rendering of visual representation)
Is the driving layer traditionally coded or ML? We don't know. Would it make sense to have to 2 different ML-layers, one for world-view generation, and one for driving? Maybe it is legacy stuff, because the old driving software (and maybe still is) was traditionally coded.
Perhaps it still makes sense to keep this architecture to have a lot of hyper-parameters for tuning various stuff. The separation of concern also allows for debugging or verification scenarios. For developers, this would be observer-modes, debugging, or meta-observer modes.

For more visually inclined, think West World late season 2 where Maeve has the vertigo-inducing sensation of observing herself thinking, and speaking, and thinking about thinking (and thinking about thinking about ..) and early season 3 where Bernard either hacks, self-diagnoses or does a repository-rollback to another version of himself, depending on what base-layer of reality you initially assume.

(Disclaimer: I don't have any deep background in AI/ML)

Super simple example of how it can use both: You use AI/ML to convert the 3d world into a simple overhead, low pixel view (think 80's video games). Then you program what the car should do if there's a turn to the right, a car moving into your lane, etc.

Not saying that's what's happening, just wanted to show an example of how you can combine NNs and traditional programming.
 
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Breaking news, the geniuses at JP Morgan have raised their TSLA price target 12.5%... From $80 to $90.

Really. Did they hire Gordon Johnson to help come up with that PT?

JPMorgan analyst Ryan Brinkman raised the price target on Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) to $90.00 (from $80.00) while maintaining a Underweight ....

Pay site link: jpmorgan tsla - Google Search

Hmm, not seeing JP Morgan on the 'nice' list. Must be on the 'naughty' list...

2020-12-08.Equity.Agents.png


Oh well, that lump of coal will keep them warm and fed over the holidays. :p

Cheers!
 
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Breaking news, the geniuses at JP Morgan have raised their TSLA price target 12.5%.

...

From $80 to $90. :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

Really. Did they hire Gordon Johnson to help come up with that PT?

JPMorgan analyst Ryan Brinkman raised the price target on Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) to $90.00 (from $80.00) while maintaining a Underweight ....

Pay site link: jpmorgan tsla - Google Search
This "upgrade" is completely transparent. It's just a way to remind everyone that they have a low target and a way to spread FUD.
 
https://twitter.com/alex_avoigt/status/1336348189243420672

BMW R&D Head Weber

"The rise in e-mobility would increase CO2 emissions per vehicle in the supply chain by more than a third by 2030"

"You can of course solve the so-called range anxiety up to a reasonable threshold with more range. In our opinion, this threshold is 5 - 600 km"

"From today's point of view, we will not produce battery cells for our series vehicles ourselves because the technology is in flux here. It would not be the right time to enter battery cell production now"

:rolleyes:
 
I have to say I have a hard time understanding what the green is implying here.

What makes you feel like Tesla is way ahead in software department? Not questioning you, just trying to understand better.

View attachment 615877

Like this, what is it that he is saying. The sun sets in west afaik, so is he saying that software 2.0 is over hyped and programming will go the way of Dodo basically never???

Green is poking fun at people who think that self driving software is to the point where it teaches itself how to drive, like AI. His evidence is the developer code has lots of options for humans to select and tweak. My point is not about Green’s opinion in human coding vs machine learning, but that the code appears to be very very sophisticated and account for a wide range of driving situations. Elon has implied before that while neural nets are primarily for labeling images now, they will be responsible for more things like driving style and strategy in the future.

We just got a rare peek into just how advanced FSD software is. Meanwhile other automakers are still trying to figure out over the air updates.

Green also mentions this code is what Tesla is letting him see. The software with the “learn to drive how I do” button would not have been released to him if it exists.
 
Ryan Brinkman
J.P. Morgan
Wall Street Analyst
Ranked #6,552 out of 7,138 Analysts on TipRanks (#13,755 out of 14,917 overall experts)

THE BEST AND THE BRIGHTEST!!! /s

Average
Return
-3.6%

I bought TSLA soon after the IPO and just held onto it, buying more over time. Let's translate my actual investing action as if I were a Wall Street Analyst.

If I were an analyst, I could have come into work on my first day at my new Wall Street job, issued an upgrade of TSLA to buy, and taken the next 6 years off of work, and I think that might still have made me the #1 analyst on Tipranks.
 
Can someone smarter than me please explan what Weber means here?

It has been argued that building an EV (esp. the battery) results in higher emissions than an equivalent ICE.

But of course ICE emissions are higher per mile of driving than EVs. After a few years of driving the lifetime emissions of ICE exceeds the emissions of an equivalent EV (production plus operation).

Weber doesn’t seem to understand these issues at a depth you’d expect from a person in his position. But - he’s not alone in this regard...
 
More flavor on the JPMorgan "upgrade":

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

At least Bloomberg seems to get it in this article:

Brinkman raised his price target on Tesla to $90 from $80, citing the $5 billion at-the-market offering announced on Tuesday, and maintained the sell-equivalent rating on the stock. According to Bloomberg data, investors who followed Brinkman’s recommendation received a negative 867% return in the past year.

:D