Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ggr]

Any thoughts on moving a margin account from E*TRADE to IBKR? Their margin interest is about 80% less than the former and that itself is a huge selling point of course.

I guess this is advice to both you and others who use ETrade. Some years ago now, when Tesla had its first big breakout, I complained about something unrelated to my Platinum advisor, and I can't remember exactly why the conversation turned to margin rate, but basically he reduced my margin rate significantly. I guess a lot more of us here are now big enough customers. Call them and ask for a reduction.

My rate at ETrade is basically the same as my rate at IBKR.

 

[ggr]

Consider yourself banished to the technical analysis thread.

Semi-mod: Indeed, 6 posts moved to TSLA Technical Analysis. There is a reason that thread exists. --ggr

 

[Alphacrux]

Cancelling my WSJ subscription. I think I was just called a 'loser' . I don't think I am- let me say that even with the stock down a bit and thanks to the good folks on this board and starting to invest in TSLA in 2012 or so, I am still a multi-Teslanaire, even if you just count TSLA gains. Hopefully, that makes us all visionaries here. In any case, too many nutjobs out there to post on WSJ with my real name, trying to inject reason. I don't worry about ppl on this board who could easily figure out who I am. In any case, a bit less subscription $$ to an oil and gas rag.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Cancelling my WSJ subscription. I think I was just called a 'loser'. I don't think I am- let me say that even with the stock down a bit and thanks to the good folks on this board and starting to invest in TSLA in 2012 or so, I am still a multi-Teslanaire, even if you just count TSLA gains. Hopefully, that makes us all visionaries here. In any case, too many nutjobs out there to post on WSJ with my real name, trying to inject reason. I don't worry about ppl on this board who could easily figure out who I am. In any case, a bit less subscription $$ to an oil and gas rag.

View attachment 595070

I understand, but you should realize that the comment section everywhere (any newspaper, YouTube, blogs, all of Twitter and Facebook) is a war zone. Getting called a loser is pretty mild, it could have been much worse. Just don’t wade into the comments and you’ll be much happier.

 

[Alphacrux]

I understand, but you should realize that the comment section everywhere (any newspaper, YouTube, blogs, all of Twitter and Facebook) is a war zone. Getting called a loser is pretty mild, it could have been much worse. Just don’t wade into the comments and you’ll be much happier.

Sure. The post was made mostly tongue-in-cheek. Meaning I’ll be much happier not posting and realizing how much richer we are all going to be based off the ignorance (willful or not) of the “ICE forever” crowd.

 

[reardencode]

HOWEVER, as I hold moslty TSLA (90%), I got margin call warnings waaay too early (forgot the details, but way earlier than at Schwab with similar TSLA concentration). That's because IBKR uses a special algo to determine the volatility of your holdings, and of course with TSLA it doesn't help.

Do you happen to remember any more details about when you got margin called at on IBKR? I just opened an account there, but have been hesitating to move everything over until I know if I can get at least 50% LTV with 100% TSLA and derivatives.

 

[asburgers]

Cancelling my WSJ subscription. I think I was just called a 'loser' .

Count me in because I'm a loser baby...

 

[MC3OZ]

Clearly there is a market for electric cars in India. Given the population distribution the total likely market for anything Tesla might offer will not exceed 10 million.
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Tesla will NOT sell Model 3 or Model Y in any numbers sufficient for even CKD. The Indian premium market is fo much smaller cars. The top couple fo million in India certainly could afford a Model 3 or even X but those are physically too big for India, even richest people tend towards smaller vehicles. Anything large tends to be a bus.
The new China or German designed vehicles will be smaller. Despite our image that does not necessarily mean cheaper. Things like 'pocket rockets' and quite luxurious very small vehicles tend to have good markets in EU as well as China, India and South America. No doubt Tesla will begin in India and TE products will have strong appeal. Further, were Tesla to design a very small platform for taxi/delivery/urban mobility they would act to expand an already thriving market. Tesla is constantly exploring cost efficiencies and vehicle packaging innovation. These categories will dominate Tesla India, whenever it comes, and will be very popular in European cities also.

Tesla is no longer North America centric. Remember, for most of the world the Model 3 is a very large car, too large for the highest volume categories.
For confirmation go to Bangalore (India tech leader) or any other Indian city. Before anybody howls to dispute there ARE giant cars sold in India:
Sales trends of luxury cars in India - From 2007 to 2019 | Team-BHP
Just look at the volumes. Then look at the best selling cars:
Top 10 cars sold in India in June: Maruti Suzuki Alto retains top spot
The largest growth and most likely Tesla entry is in the SUV's that would be much smaller than Model Y and have selling prices, including taxes of US$ 15000/20000.
The China designed vehicles will be in that class. Why? It is the sweet spot in several of the world's largest car markets, like China, most of the EU, all of South America. Until now those global markets have been dominated by Japanese and Korean cars, produced via CKD or more complete manufacturing, with Chinese brands (e.g.Chery is a major factor in Brazil).

In India, Brazil, and several other very large markets the vast majority of vehicles in this class are produced with local partners. That was the case in China and still is a huge factor. Tesla has pretty much pioneered a new manufacturing model that shares technology openly and uses many local suppliers that are not quite Tier One for Tesla but are for others (CATL is perhaps the best known of these).

For the next group of Tesla factories we are almost certainly going to see more of the now-traditional GF's in China, Europe and North America. For India, Brazil (Mercosur), Mexico and others there will be greater diversity in approaches, with TE and vehicles both playing leading roles.

For us at TMC most of us are vastly understating how transformational all this will be. Most, distinctly not all, of the countries are desperate to transition away from fossil fuels. That is partly about improving balance of payments and partly environmental. For the first time we are now with solar and wind plus storage cheaper than other options. Tesla and others are now reaching the point of BEV being cheaper than ICE. Zero doubt that smaller vehicles and TE will be joint forces globally. The only other players in these categories are Chinese. There is more than enough space for all of them.

India will have TE and all the Chinese to help displace the horribly dirty cheap coal and fuels. The ubiquitous Bajaj, Mahindra and Piaggio will continue to thrive moving to the smallest EV category:
Chetak – A Brand new electric scooter | The Future of Mobility
https://evduniya.com/ev-india/top-t...hicles-in-india-e-rickshaw-manufacturers.html

Right now suppliers like Bosch are leading the supply of technology to support this transition. Chinese and Indian companies will dominate almost without question with a handful of Europeans like Piaggio maintaining a strong role in the slightly, very slightly upscale part of that market:
Electric Power Range - Piaggio Commercial Vehicles

Tesla knows all of this. They are NOT about to go to India with tiny volume huge, expensive cars like the Model 3. They'll sell it probably, but the concentration is the are now in the Maruti-Suzuki/Hyundai category.

Thanks for the well though out and well researched response.

It does seem to be more challenging than I had hoped, but I think there are still niches worth exploring.

Energy storage batteries is the obvious opportunity, local manufacture would be welcomed.

They have a lot of buses and trucks there is an opportunity for the Tesla Semi, if Tesla can come up with a viable Megacharging solution.

Model 3 is a good solution for taxis in India when I was there they were running old Ambassadors.

That points to an other possibility the Tesla network has a lot of long run potential in places like India if it can safely negotiate the local roads. But it will need millions of miles of driving data. An Uber like Tesla Network makes sense, drivers can lease the car and the income from fares can help pay the lease.

But you are right the bulk of the opportunity is in lower priced compact cars, perhaps even in vehicles designed for the local market..

And the other opportunity which I have mentioned previously is suppling, batteries, motors and components to local vehicle makers.

The UK and Australia will remain the main RHD markets especially for Model 3/Y. This raises the question is if RHD cars should be made in a RHD country, or continue to be made in China.

One reason I raise India is I would like to see Tesla diversify production locations where possible. It also represents the really challenging and difficult part of the mission, solve India most of the world is solved. And this type of problem will not be solved overnight.

If Tesla was exporting cars from a factory in India, they would get a lot of support from the government and populace. That support might make a difficult problem worthwhile.

Overall I think Elon and Jack MA are right, declining population may create a lack of skilled and qualified workers in many countries. So I expect more opportunities for well qualified and educated Indians to pursue careers overseas, and in the long run India can use that expertise to build competitive industries. They want to do it, but need a good example to show them the way...

However, overall your post did indicate how big that challenge is...

 

[MC3OZ]

Where Elon Musk and Tesla earn real credit 'eating the lunch' of auto competitors

This is well balanced and worth a read.

 

[gabeincal]

To be fair we just got a RAV4 Prime and I must say It’s lane keeping and its dynamic cruise are much better than enhanced autopilot In my Model 3. Just today the Model 3 had three phantom braking events on particularly bad.

Probably using Mobileye? I must say that my 2016 Model S with AP1 was almost as good as my brand new Model Y. But I can also look at it differently: when they dropped Mobileye, they recreated the entire functionality in about 2 years with self-designed hardware and software. That itself is amazing - but you have to know the details to give them a little slack...

 

[Prunesquallor]

Bryn Cloud on LinkedIn: #cancerfree | 21219 comments

 

[gabeincal]

Do you happen to remember any more details about when you got margin called at on IBKR? I just opened an account there, but have been hesitating to move everything over until I know if I can get at least 50% LTV with 100% TSLA and derivatives.

Etrade has only allows 30% margin usage on TSLA since I’m already over-concentrated on my cash (100% TSLA stock and options). I got margin called a couple times recently, though to be fair, the call comes about 2 days later after crossing into -ve and they give me 5 business days which is usually enough for the market to turn around and satisfy the call without me selling or depositing. I don’t know if this will eventually upset them, but I’m REALLY trying to catch the next breakout.. I thought that would be yesterday but POTUS messed that up (also).

 

[mrmage]

I guess this is advice to both you and others who use ETrade. Some years ago now, when Tesla had its first big breakout, I complained about something unrelated to my Platinum advisor, and I can't remember exactly why the conversation turned to margin rate, but basically he reduced my margin rate significantly. I guess a lot more of us here are now big enough customers. Call them and ask for a reduction.

My rate at ETrade is basically the same as my rate at IBKR.

Wait, my Etrade rate is around 5%, but IBKR Pro looks like 1%. Will ETrade drop it down to the same?

 

[dhrivnak]

Probably using Mobileye? I must say that my 2016 Model S with AP1 was almost as good as my brand new Model Y. But I can also look at it differently: when they dropped Mobileye, they recreated the entire functionality in about 2 years with self-designed hardware and software. That itself is amazing - but you have to know the details to give them a little slack...

Why as what Tesla now has is quite inferior I am very sag to say.

 

[S3XY]

I think you mean energy density? Power and energy mean quite different things. Power is how much work you are doing in an instant of time. It is an instantaneous measure of output. Energy is total amount of work the storage device can output.

So power density relates to how much acceleration the car can achieve or how fast supercharger can occur. Energy density relates to range.

Oops. Yes, of course. Thanks for the correction.

 

[dc_h]

In my understanding all his compensation is shares or share options, no cash. So I do not see how that is a drag on financials. They just issue some new shares to him, that means some dilution for shareholders, but no expense for the company. Am I wrong in this understanding ?

They have to recognize the actuarial cost of the stock options when granted. The @accountant has estimates this could be about 200 million against GAAP earnings. I don’t think it’s registered against non-GAAP earnings and there is no impact to cash flow. Elon may have hit a new tranche this quarter, or will in Q4.

 

[Tim S]

Etrade has only allows 30% margin usage on TSLA since I’m already over-concentrated on my cash (100% TSLA stock and options). I got margin called a couple times recently, though to be fair, the call comes about 2 days later after crossing into -ve and they give me 5 business days which is usually enough for the market to turn around and satisfy the call without me selling or depositing. I don’t know if this will eventually upset them, but I’m REALLY trying to catch the next breakout.. I thought that would be yesterday but POTUS messed that up (also).

I have bought cheap puts (which will expire worthless), for a dollar or two per contract, to satisfy margin calls from ETrade. No need to sell TSLA or deposit cash. For example, you could buy an Oct 9 $200 put and see how it affects your available margin.

Not advice.

 

[new_sneakers]

Since the interesting discussion up-thread between @MC3OZ and @jbcarioca following on from Elon’s comment that Tesla will definitely enter the Indian market next year, I have been reconsidering some of Elon’s other recent remarks:


First, about the Shanghai- and Berlin-designed vehicles “for the global market”, and


Secondly, his ready refusal of Sandy Munro’s request for help with a three-wheeled vehicle, and his confirmation (“Exactly”) of Karen’s elaboration that although a three-wheeler may be safe in the correct configuration, three-wheelers aren’t regulated by the same safety standards.


Third, the “Vehicle Integration” part of the battery day presentation where Elon spruiked the unheard-of stiffness of the structural battery and the associated uptick in safety.


Putting these together such that 2+2=5, Tesla can make a subcompact car of unparalleled safety making it appropriate for all roads and markets of all stripes, especially when robotaxis remove the upfront cost of car use, meeting the strictest safety standards while fitting neatly into narrow lanes and parking spaces.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Here is another basic reason why Tesla is pursuing silicon anodes for Project Roadrunner: there is no graphite on Mars, but there's plenty of silicon.

Sand (Silicon Dioxide) is the most prevalent mineral on Mars. In most all Elon's long-term drives to create new technology, the underlying motivation is "will it work on Mars?"

Ask yourself why Tesla produces zero wind turbines, even though they have the world's most efficent electric motor/generators, and the world's best power electronics? The atmosphere on Mars is too thin to produce useful amounts of energy with wind power.

Instead, Tesla owns a solar energy division, who's products will definately be needed at the 1st Mars propellant plant for SpaceX.

Telsa is also rumored to have tested its prototype batteries in extreme cold conditions, another requirement for working on Mars.

Another example is the decadal effort to create A.I. hardware and software. Robotic advance missions will need to setup propellant production facilities before the first human crew arrives, and even before the first rocket can depart the Martian surface.

Elon takes a wholistic approach to the work undertaken by each of his enterprises. In each of these cases, we see terrestrial development to mass production and economies of scale, in advance of becoming an integrated, essential component of the larger plan.

Starlink is another example. The technology is being developed now and constantly being refined while early deployment ramps, and volume builds to a critical mass. It's no coincidence that SpaceX will require a high-speed global data communications network to support its effort on Mars. It will be far simpler and cheaper to replicate a working network than to create one from scratch once we're living and working on Mars.

Appropos of nothing in particular, I'm working to free up a couple hundred K in advance of a potential Starlink IPO in a few years, with an eye to Elon's recent comments that longterm TSLA shareholders may receive early access normally restricted to large funds and other Wall St. insiders.

Not Advice.

Cheers!

 

[kanweg]

AAFAIK India has a very bad electricity net. That could mean opportunities for battery storage (Powerwalls) and grid stabilization. Charging EVs however would be taxing the weak grid significantly. Using the EVs to stabilize it would be a boon, however (although the lukewarm mention of the possibility (for Europe) was the disappointing thing for me on battery day. I think we need it to maximize the use of renewables as quickly as possible. It means more CO2 if we don’t).
India is also working hard on solar.