Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MP3Mike]

I was wondering, why does the table assume 10 GWh per line? In the presentation Drew talks about that they want to build assembly lines that have such a high speed that they can do 20 GWh per line:

Probably because that is the size of the pilot line. Thanks for bringing that to our attention, I had missed, or forgotten, that part.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Yet Elon and Tesla each had to pay $20M for a tweet that did basically nothing. Seems legit.

Yeah, what ever happened to that $40M that the SEC collected and said would be going to "harmed investors"?

 

[OrthoSurg]

Some musing from this slide from the battery day presentation:
- The savings don't kick in for Tesla right away, takes a few years
- I wonder what each of those horizontal gridlines represent? If I was a betting man I would they were $25 increments, meaning they are at ~$130 p/KW now, and Teslas cost curves down to around $60 p/KW in 2025 - which sort of fits the 56% cost reduction
View attachment 591947

I remember when Elon was saying that technology doesn’t get better over time by itself, improvement comes from great engineering.
He just proved that with that curve inflexion

 

[kbeckley]

As an investor and backer of the mission, if I could know the answer to the following I would know all I need to know. If all these end up in my status 4, well, game over. The rest is almost irrelevant.

For each of the following technology advancement announced on battery day assign from the following statuses:
1. Still some science to work out.
2. All down to the engineering now.
3. Working well in pilot.
4. Working at full throttle in production.

Advancement:
1. Tabless Cell
2. Dry Electrode
3. Continuous Motion Manufacturing
4. Silicon anode (and the ion-conducing polymer)
5. High Nickel Cathode ('with novel dopants and coatings')
6. Raw metal Nickle power as input.
7. Lithium generation through salt extraction
8. Front and rear casting
9. Module-less pack integrated as a structural element

These 9 items should be tracked and asked about every quarter.

Finally, for the folks worrying about interior refreshes and the like clearly (to me) Tesla is laser focused on 3 things. The vast majority of innovative energy is being poured into these.
1. New battery (chemistry and manufacturing)
2. Autonomy
3. Automotive manufacturing efficiency / driving out cost

Seeing Elon and Drew on stage excitedly giggling about the tech (and each others lame jokes) reinforces that this company is foremost led by engineers who are relentlessly into solving these problems. This will win.

 

[Sofie]

The good thing about these forums, we all seem to find completely normal that there are drops and obstacles on the way to Tesla complete domination in 2030.

everytime I get to work and Tesla has crashed, people are asking me if I sold everything before the total complete collapse of TSLA like if they were talking about NKLA. Talking to other longs is a bit refreshing than just talking to non investors that just want t9 make 10% overnight and run away.

Lol!!! Yes! Same here! Everyone at work bashing Tesla! I come here to find I’m perfectly justified in my enthusiasm and confidence for a seemingly (for them) “disappointment” of a company!
Ughh...I’m over these people

 

[Nocturnal]

Is that site for real? I wanted to gift shares and couldn't find how.

I used www.stockpile.com to gift my nephew TSLA on his birthday. They basically create a custodial IRA and your gift is a gift certificate for a specific stock (with fractional shares). It worked out great because I bought the cert when TSLA was $700 and it got redeemed in March at $400.

Lol!!! Yes! Same here! Everyone at work bashing Tesla! I come here to find I’m perfectly justified in my enthusiasm and confidence for a seemingly (for them) “disappointment” of a company!
Ughh...I’m over these people

I'm lucky as I have several co-workers who own Teslas and several others who are TSLA owners.

 

[Tim S]

2 weeks ago, we suffered our first out of 20

First? You must be new here. I count 5 this year alone. A year in which the SP is up 363%. There are already 15 to 20 20% drops in TSLA history. Expect many more. BTFD!

(I admit my BTFD strategy in February did not work out too well in early March, but I have recovered and then some )

 

[TSLA Pilot]

Amen. The energy rubs off. Back when I started looking into this in 2014, I thought I'll just invest maybe low double digit percentage of my measly savings and hope for some big return. Then I ended up looking at what happened in this very thread in 2013 and seeing that some people both learned how to play this game and ended up with life changing amounts of wealth.. that got the wheels spinning. I came here with a pretty strong (and non-emotional) conviction that TSLA is going to be a killer investment, but I didn't have the confidence to go all in and make it work. And here I am 5 years later, basically with the same exact experience as some of the folks here had back in 2013. Without this board and people being fairly candid about what they're doing, how and why, I would not be where I am today. I don't care of course for the exact numbers, but enough clues to get the right idea is good enough. Super grateful to all the folks who shared their experiences, it is very helpful indeed.

Concur with your assessment.

The traffic on this thread, for YEARS, explained how Tesla would reinvent ground transportation. This thread provided ample evidence of this, especially before the mods killed off some of the best posters, and it also helped me discover many of the best YT pundits (Solving the Money Problem, David Lee, Rob Mauer, etc.) and the stunning insights from Cathie and the team at ARK Investments.

All helped me carefully invest since 2013 so as to expand a smallish 6-figure portfolio into almost into 8-figures, where it is likely to be by the EOY or in 2021 at the latest. (As more of the clueless analysts begin to wake up and realize just how late they are to the party, and the possible S&P 500 inclusion, and FSD, and Giga Austin, Giga Berlin, RoboTaxi, and so on and so on, all come to fruition, with more to come.)

It's really all about HODL and dollar cost averaging--just put some in a self-directed 401k every pay period, and then use a touch of margin in your trading account whenever there's a "SALE on TSLA!" . . . and then WAIT.

Time, and chronic FUD from the many ignorants (or secret shorts?) on CNBC, are all your friend while you accumulate shares

 

[mrjinglesusa]

The good thing about these forums, we all seem to find completely normal that there are drops and obstacles on the way to Tesla complete domination in 2030.

everytime I get to work and Tesla has crashed, people are asking me if I sold everything before the total complete collapse of TSLA like if they were talking about NKLA. Talking to other longs is a bit refreshing than just talking to non investors that just want t9 make 10% overnight and run away.

That’s because this forum is pretty much an echo chamber. It should be renamed:

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 TSLA LONG Investors' OPTIMISTIC Roundtable (Bears, Shorts, and Realistic Expectations Not Welcome Here)



Joking. Kind of.

 

[Artful Dodger]

After-action Report: Thu, Sep 24, 2020: (Full-Day's Trading)

Headline: "TSLA Rebounds with Uptick Rule"

Traded: $36,990,775,596.97 ($35.99B)
Volume: 96,471,728
VWAP: $383.44

Close: $387.79 / VWAP: 101.16%
TSLA closed ABOVE today's Avg SP
Mkt Cap: TSLA / TM = $361.346B / $186.445B = 193.81%​

TSLA 1-mth Moving Avg Market Cap: $391.63
TSLA 6-mth Moving Avg Market Cap: $230.96
Nota Bene: 3rd tranche of CEO comp. unlocked as of Fri, Sep 04, 2020

'Short' Report:

FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 58.8% (57th Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)
FINRA Short/Total Volume = 39.4% (44th Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Short Exempt Volume was 4.87% of Short Volume (79th Percentile Rank)​

Comment: "TSLA outperforms macros; pinned below $400"

View all Lodger's After-Action Reports

Cheers!

 

[Prunesquallor]

I know! I know! Let’s have another debate about Tesla advertising!

 

[TSLA Pilot]

That’s because this forum is pretty much an echo chamber. It should be renamed:

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 TSLA LONG Investors' OPTIMISTIC Roundtable (Bears, Shorts, and Realistic Expectations Not Welcome Here)



Joking. Kind of.

THIS IS TRUE!

As such, in an abundance of caution I've tried to follow the short argument as best as I could, for years, but every "negative/warning" or "Watch out!" article about Tesla almost always lead down the same path:

1. A tipranks.com ranking in the basement, suggesting that the pundit was actually a contra-indicator: DO THE EXACT OPPOSITE OF WHAT THEY RECOMMEND.

2. A throwback from the ICE automotive industry with views locked in the past (looking at you Bob Lutz).

3. Just a clueless analyst that might have done well predicting events in a previous period (say the housing/mortgage bust), but that was missing the boat/didn't "get it" with Tesla.

This said, I'm concerned of what else we, here in the echo chamber, might be missing . . . there must be something?

Perhaps some of the smarter/better informed here might chime in, but Tesla seems likely to be the most valuable company on Earth in a few years.

 

[Curt Renz]

AP - 4 hours ago: BMW fined $18 million for inflating monthly US sales figures

 

[FrankSG]

First? You must be new here. I count 5 this year alone. A year in which the SP is up 363%. There are already 15 to 20 20% drops in TSLA history. Expect many more. BTFD!

View attachment 591975

(I admit my BTFD strategy in February did not work out too well in early March, but I have recovered and then some )

If counting intra-day, you missed one. It hit $1,790 in mid-July, and was $1,390 in mid-August before the split announcement.

Oh, and another from ~$875 to ~$650 after the "stock is too high" tweet.

 

[Unpilot]

This isn’t even laughable. It is just boring. Tiresome that we have to listen to morons.

My fault for not just shutting down and living in a closet somewhere....

If you see the words "Morgan Stanley" and "predict" stop reading.

 

[S3XY]

Lol!!! Yes! Same here! Everyone at work bashing Tesla! I come here to find I’m perfectly justified in my enthusiasm and confidence for a seemingly (for them) “disappointment” of a company!
Ughh...I’m over these people

I think most of them (co-workers) are suffering from ROMO. Resentment Of Missing Out. What they don't realize is that they still have time to join us.

 

[Big Time]

Not certain I know what you're asking. But I think Grohmann Automation build a MTBTM a year in Germany, Grohmann China build another one, and maybe Tesla adds one near the 'mothership' in Fremont so that the engineers have 'hands-on' with the latest at all times.

Either way, Tesla needs to add capacity at a steady rate. SNAP. CRACKLE. POP. There's no cheating your way to 3TWh/yr (Trevor's need not apply).

Cheers!

In this life, one thing counts, in the bank, large amounts. Others say money dosnt grows on trees, You got to pick a pocket or two....Trevor! You got to pick a pocket or two.

 

[AudubonB]

If you see the words "Morgan Stanley" and "predict" stop reading.

I predict Morgan Stanley will come up with some ridiculous statements.

 

[Big Time]

Adam Jonas can’t tell his arse from his elbow

 

[S3XY]

That’s because this forum is pretty much an echo chamber. It should be renamed:

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 TSLA LONG Investors' OPTIMISTIC REALISTIC Roundtable (Bears, Shorts, and Realistic FUDistic Expectations Not Welcome Here)



Joking. Kind of.

FTFY. Uh apparently you didn't read TSLA Pilot's post closely enough.