Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EVMeister]

Meant to say monotonically! The training data set (if organized properly) will primarily grow, never truly shrink.

So for example if a Tesla captured this weird star shaped road marking in the UK last year:

and sent it back to the mothership and if it was deemed important enough to become part of the training data, then it would be part of the "collective memory" from this point on, and would probably be labeled with a "slow down and disengage immediately" attribute or so.

(At least that's how I speculate Tesla uses disengagement events.)

What does that weird star marking mean? Is it just telling people to be careful as there is a speed bump, zebra crossing (it's for pedestrians!) and perhaps a cycle path converging in that area? I mean, I drive in the UK and have never seen anything like that before and it doesn't appear to be in the Highway Code. So if a Tesla can work that one out, it has one-upped normal drivers.

 

[kyzhk]

Thanks - you said what I tried to say so much more succinctly. We (investors) are not the target audience any longer. The legacy car makers are. And the message is "be scared and run for your life!"

Yes, I think it's important that we keep in mind Elon Musk can live a lavish life without doing any of this - his motivation for spacex and tesla was never about money. Keeping this in mind should allow us to understand his/tesla's decisions more easily.

 

[Bet TSLA]

I would never think about buying a car without a test drive.

What you post you think seems to change from moment to moment, so it's hard to take any of your pronouncements seriously. Every market day a rollercoaster.

 

[tinm]

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Along these lines, I found it interesting that not once but twice, while Supercharging in Santa Fe NM yesterday, cars pulled up to my old 2013 Model S (and not, ha ha, I take joy in pointing out, to the two Model 3s also charging), and started snapping away taking pictures with their smartphones. One car had a dad and kid, both with their phones out, both taking pictures of my car. (Of course, I got out my smartphone and started snapping away taking photos of them and their car. We had a genuine mutual admiration society thing goin’ on.)

Later I was wondering: why are ICE people suddenly driving over to a Supercharger and taking pictures? Duh! Tesla big-time in the news this past week.

 

[AudubonB]

Meant to say monotonically! The training data set (if organized properly) will primarily grow, never truly shrink.

So for example if a Tesla captured this weird star shaped road marking in the UK last year:

and sent it back to the mothership and if it was deemed important enough to become part of the training data, then it would be part of the "collective memory" from this point on, and would probably be labeled with a "slow down and disengage immediately" attribute or so.

(At least that's how I speculate Tesla uses disengagement events.)

Thanks!
Probably would have been best for your reputation were you just to have weaseled out saying "Blame it on Audiecorrect!".

 

[electracity]

Why are German centers able to deliver that many cars while Tilburg, by all means the largest and best equipped one isn't able to sustain more than 40 on average?

Because there is not demand for the cars. Tesla is building the $35K model 3 because they don't have the orders for more expensive cars.

Among many factors its the slowest time of the year for auto sales.

I think Tesla altered plans to find a way to the model Y without outside money.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

I'll simply repeat the advice: you don't own a car for just three months. Making short-sighted decisions based on what infrastructure currently happens to be in your province is unwise. A Bolt-style vehicle will never be a good road tripper, for the entire life of the vehicle that you own it. They not only have lower charging powers, but are less efficient on the highway to boot.

Take that for what you will. I sympathize, as I'm in the same situation, but I'm certainly not going to make a short-sighted decision like that. It's like people who go and buy an ICE guzzler because, "Well, gas prices are low!", as if they're going to be low for the entire lifespan of the vehicle.

Karen I get that. We don’t want to make a short sited decision. But that’s just the thing. There is no way Tesla is going to cover all these areas in the next 5 years let alone decade with the Supercharger network. Nor should they have to. We want Tesla to succeed. So for Tesla to make the kind of investment in the Supercharger network to cover a smaller market like B.C. makes no sense. Better to jump on board an already more extensive and much faster growing network by making an adapter. The idea worked with a high end car like the S or X but apparently makes no sense with the 3. Or at least according to our Tesla Rep who we have been asking about this for 6 months.

Anyway. Frustrated rant over. It’s not that we don’t think we’ll like the new Leaf EPlus. We just kind of had our heart set on a model 3 for this falls trip.

Thanks for letting me vent.

John.

 

[jerry33]

I strongly prefer to walk in to a store for such a major purchase..... for the same price.

But I rather have a 6% discount. That is $2100 to $9000 savings.

No argument on saving 6%.

In the past twenty years, a short list of major items have I purchased online. I've never had much luck purchasing items from a store, other than groceries.

Tankless water heater
Metal roof for the house
Floor tile
Bathroom fixtures (sinks, toilets, bathtub)
Three cars
Several computers
Copper sink
Refrigerators
Wall oven, induction cooktop, venting hood, dishwasher
Washing machines and driers
A few other things, but you get the idea.

The only reason for a store is to see the colours in person if a precise colour match is needed (online renditions don't give that unless you have a colour corrected monitor).

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Something i find interesting is Elon's comment that if you order today you'll get your model 3 in June in the US(even though the website says 2 to 4 weeks). Considering it takes 2 to 3 weeks to build the car and deliver it, you could read that statement as they already have enough orders to fill up for march and april production , possibly into May. Elon would be the one to know.....

Hopefully we get some sort of tweet or press release about a large number of orders over the weekend otherwise i feel like the next two weeks or three are going to over drive of lack of demand FUD.

 

[anthonyj]

Think it’s time to start advertising the car. Average Joe has never even heard about Tesla. They don’t know about autopilot, or that Tesla has 300+ range. My brother and I are very into tech and never thought or knew much about Tesla. I even bought an i3 way before I sat inside of a Tesla... I was given the i3 as a loaner to my 4 series and bought it a week later. Before you all start bashing or taking offense, most of you have been following the company since 2013 and/or live in California where Tesla probably doesn’t need any advertising. The public needs to be educated. Only so many people follow Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[anthonyj]

Something i find interesting is Elon's comment that if you order today you'll get your model 3 in June in the US(even though the website says 2 to 4 weeks). Considering it takes 2 to 3 weeks to build the car and deliver it, you could read that statement as they already have enough orders to fill up for march and april production , possibly into May. Elon would be the one to know.....

Hopefully we get some sort of tweet or press release about a large number of orders over the weekend otherwise i feel like the next two weeks or three are going to over drive of lack of demand FUD.

In the conference call he said a person ordering today should expect it by, not in, June. The website is the most accurate gauge we have right now. Hopefully they sold out Q1 and it gets updated tomorrow morning

 

[azaz]

Think it’s time to start advertising the car. Average Joe has never even heard about Tesla. They don’t know about autopilot, or that Tesla has 300+ range. My brother and I are very into tech and never thought or knew much about Tesla. I even bought an i3 way before I sat inside of a Tesla... I was given the i3 as a loaner to my 4 series and bought it a week later. Before you all start bashing or taking offense, most of you have been following the company since 2013 and/or live in California where Tesla probably doesn’t need any advertising. The public needs to be educated. Only so many people follow Elon Musk on Twitter

hard to see how they reach new customers without both advertising and stores

 

[jerry33]

Think it’s time to start advertising the car. Average Joe has never even heard about Tesla.

During the past two years, I've yet to run into anyone who hasn't heard of Tesla. There are plenty who have never seen one, sat in one, or knew how cool they are, but everyone I've met (for example at shopping malls where I've shown the car) knows the name. Six years ago it was a different story.

 

[EinSV]

I'd be very pleased if Tesla would offer to come to our home with a car to test drive. I imagine this experience would be very helpful in the decision-making process. Hell, I'd even buy lunch (at a SuperCharger, of course). OK? Try to imagine what this experience would be like for yourselves.

Now.

Compare this experience, against the last one you've had at a ICE dealership. No hurry. Take your time...

THIS - is what disruption looks like! Nicely done, Elon.

Next step for Tesla: Improve their CRM system. We already have two Model 3s, so probably not the best candidate for a test drive!

 

[mongo]

All in all, I think with your corrections an upside of around $500M in total seems fair? Or would you agree otherwise?

. At this point, my corrected numbers would point to a cash position of $1.1M instead of $1.1B.

I'm confused, do you mean $1.6 Billion instead?

 

[EVNow]

In the past twenty years, a short list of major items have I purchased online. I've never had much luck purchasing items from a store, other than groceries.

Groceries …. thats what Amazon Fresh is for

People are getting comfortable buying larger & more expensive items online, gradually. There was a time when people wouldn't buy TVs or computers online. Since Tesla already gets most of the orders online, they can move this one more item to online purchase. They can continue to operate galleries so people can come and take a look, sit inside the car etc.

 

[jerry33]

Groceries …. thats what Amazon Fresh is for

Last time I looked, delivery charges were way too expensive.

 

[azaz]

During the past two years, I've yet to run into anyone who hasn't heard of Tesla. There are plenty who have never seen one, sat in one, or knew how cool they are, but everyone I've met (for example at shopping malls where I've shown the car) knows the name. Six years ago it was a different story.

I'm in NYC and while everyone knows what Tesla is I have heard things like "Tesla's cant drive in the Rain", "is there charging on the highways", and other misconceptions. Frankly more than ~65% of people I've talked Tesla with have no idea that most owners charge in the comfort of their home. many, many people still don't know the advantages of an EV/Tesla.

I honestly believe Tesla should take a page out of Apple's history and run a "I'm a Mac" style ad campaign that clearly educates people on why EVs are better for most people.

For people unfamiliar:

 

[jerry33]

I'm in NYC and while everyone knows what Tesla is I have heard things like "Tesla's cant drive in the Rain", "is there charging on the highways", and other misconceptions. many, many people still don't know the advantages of an EV/Tesla.

I honestly believe Tesla should take a page out of Apple's history and run a "I'm a Mac" style ad campaign that clearly educates people on why EVs are better for most people.

I expect some day they will do that, but not while they can sell all they can make without. No point in ramping up demand to the point where you can't fill the orders. Most of the time competitors will reap the benefit of your advertising dollars.

 

[anthonyj]

During the past two years, I've yet to run into anyone who hasn't heard of Tesla. There are plenty who have never seen one, sat in one, or knew how cool they are, but everyone I've met (for example at shopping malls where I've shown the car) knows the name. Six years ago it was a different story.

I totally believe you, but in my experience, aside from the people that approach me when I park at a restaurant/mall, people are extremely misinformed. People still think Tesla’s can only go 100 miles, cost $100k, and they’ve never heard of autopilot. I’m talking about middle to upper class families/business owners. Tesla needs to force-educate. There are tons of people that are buying C-Class/3 series that would be buying Tesla’s if they had just known. And yes, I know Tesla is eating their market share currently, but I have doubts that Tesla will be able to hit 25k deliveries a month again without breaking into the Average Joe who is ignorant, and rightfully so