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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I think you misunderstood me. This is not something you would see unless you wanted to find something and opened the services directory. So there would be no clutter. It would be a modern version of the Yellow Pages. This won't happen until Tesla reaches at least 25% market share.
I like your idea and think there's room for a great subscription model a la Amazon prime.

E.g. one mobile car wash a month, priority voluntarily mobile maintenance (mobile wash or new tyres if you were belting around the track on the weekend), discounts on specific partner products, 2 free supercharges per month, discounted insurance etc, etc.

As Tesla grows and continues to build out their logistics function and other services there's increasing opportunity to continue to add more features into the bundle (just as Amazon has done).
 
I think you misunderstood me. This is not something you would see unless you wanted to find something and opened the services directory. So there would be no clutter. It would be a modern version of the Yellow Pages. This won't happen until Tesla reaches at least 25% market share.
Elon's first major venture was a sort of Internet Yellow Pages.
 
I'm not talking about an "app store" in a Tesla. They can sell car washes, parking, tires, hotels, drive-thru meals, coffee, anything you might need on the road. Tesla can sign contracts with providers of these services. $10/year doesn't even scratch the surface. Use your imagination.

Tires? Yes - probably already possible via service right?
Coffee/meals? Doubtful
Parking, hotels, car wash? No

Generally speaking, while Elon is in charge, I highly doubt the screen is going to be monitized for upselling... it's not customer/product centric, with the exception of car related upgrades/wifi etc.... it's sales/marketing centric. If you go down that path you end up with Windows, where publishers pay to have their bloatware installed like Candy Crush. This model is sleazy af imo. Telcos use it extensively too speaking from personal experience. Tesla needs to do everything it can to avoid this model.

Also, the idea of contracting out general rest services like car wash and coffee goes against everything Tesla has done so far in eliminating middlemen and passing on savings to accelerate sustainable transport.

Tesla will capture a significant amount of several multi-trillion dollar markets - cars/trucks/energy/solar/FSD.
I think the ballpark figure of these industries is maybe 5-20 trillion annually?? Do you know if someone has calculated this? I'm expecting Tesla to get a good chunk of that. Coffees and car washes will be pocket change in comparison - not worth the effort.

I don't even think they will upsell the solar roof via the car, which would be significant considering it costs 30K or so.

My final thought on Tesla profits is that they are so far ahead they can easily slow growth and turn a huge profit whenever they want. Towards the top of the S curve of EVs and renewables you can expect this to happen - maybe at 75% through the S curve. The next 10-15 years though will be dominated by expansion not profits. At some point Elon will leave, someone like Tim Cook will take over, they will stop innovating and forcefully install Candy Crush, generating a few percent extra profit... aka Xerox/Apple.

 
What apps can you think of a tesla owner would pay $10-$20 and/or a $5 monthly fee for? (especially ones that would not use LTE bandwidth to the degree it'd cost Tesla additional money likely in excess of their profit from the app long term)
Anything you have to pick your phone up to do. Decent stock quotes (that don’t crash AP), Amazon Music, Amazon Cart.
 
I am trying to get a rough idea of the impact of cell size on cost per watt hour. I haven't seen any analysis on this, so if you have seen something please point me in the right direction.

Does anyone have any knowledge of what proportion of the total cell cost is raw materials vs the proportion that is manufacturing cost? When I look at the cost of AA vs AAA batteries they seem to be roughly the same price per cell so I am assuming that the cost of the raw materials is not a high proportion of the total cell cost.

Using the original postulation of a 4070 cell which has roughly 4x the volume of the 2170

I may be completely wrong with this logic but if:
  1. raw materials are 50% (for example) of the cost of a 2170 cell and
  2. the manufacturing (ex raw materials) cost of a 2170 cell and the new 4x larger volume cell are broadly the same
Then the cost of the 4x larger cell would be 250% (4x 50% + 50%) of the 2170 but the capacity of the cell would be 4x that of the 2170. In cost terms that would make the cost per watt hour about 5/8ths or 62.5% of the 2170. If raw materials are a lower proportion, say 40%, then the cost per watt hour falls even further. Similarly if the new cell is even larger (5498).

Do we have any battery cell production experts on the thread that can give an accurate view of how cell costs increase as the cell size increases, and hence the relative cost per watt hour?

Thanks in advance :)
You can’t make the size/price assumptions yet. There is too much other stuff going on besides it just being bigger. Also the 2170 cost the same as the 18650 and it’s 50% bigger.
 
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Oh gawd. Another financial investor who doesn’t understand growth company valuations.

Btw how does Tesla have negative EBIT? Was he using 2019 numbers?

Cause, you know, regulatory credits.

So glad he let us know he MD. I ordinarily hate giving time to random moron tweets, as we would die before we read them all, but that is a good synopsis of the short game at the moment for TSLA.
 
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Gary Blacks reply to Mr Burry:
3522371F-EDF6-4B07-91E2-703768ADA37D.jpeg
 

As much as I like Jobs, he didn’t get this right, IMHO. The reason Xerox “failed” (relative term, they still make copiers) is because their CEO had no pressure to keep innovating because they had a monopoly. At some point, the CEO should have been very worried that they didn’t have products that could dominate new industries. As head of Intel, Andy Grove knew that lesson well. He even wrote a book about it “Only the Paranoid Survive”.

It wasn’t that Xerox were marketing and sales led per se. I mean Apple has always had great marketing, for example. It was just that they had no true pressure to grow. Even an MBA manager with zero engineering background can set a goal that the company should create and capitalize on a new industry dominating product every couple of years. And Xerox had the money and technology to do so. You know Xerox invented Ethernet? But they never productized it properly. And then they didn’t innovate it further. And then they didn’t even buy up the emerging companies that had innovated Ethernet further. That’s three serial management failures in one huge industry category. They did the same thing for GUIs, mice and a bunch of other things.

Elon’s recent tweet said it best when he said Tesla should be considered as an amalgamation of different growth companies. Tesla has innovation coming out of its ears.

And why is that, exactly?

The easy answer is that Elon is unique and a great leader and manager. But I think that’s an incomplete answer. Before Elon took on SpaceX and Tesla, Elon looked like any other competent Silicon Valley entrepreneur. Good results with Zip2 and PayPal, but nothing exceptional (by Silicon Valley standards).

But then Elon decided to do the (almost) impossible. No, not starting a rocket company and a car company. Just doing that would have been hard, but not nearly impossible. Instead Elon decided to create a human civilization on Mars, change the entire transport sector to electric, and change energy generation to renewable. OMG. It’s probably a good thing he didn’t emphasize his first goal too loudly at the beginning or else he would have ended up in a padded room :)

To bring this all the way back to why Xerox failed to grow, and Tesla is doing nothing but growing, it has to do with the pressures applied to both companies. In Elon speak, there was no forcing function to cause Xerox to grow. They had a reliable revenue stream that required little brainpower to maintain. Tesla, on the other hand, was trying to do something that only happens once in generations, and it was a raw undercapitalized startup. If they didn’t innovate like crazy, they would have failed. Again, as Elon tweeted, pressure makes diamonds. Elon drove and still drives the company hard since their goal is so huge.

I’ll end this with a concrete example. By nature, Elon probably isn’t a hard ass kind of ice blooded manager. He has quite a heart and feels things deeply. Yet we know he has fired a lot of people, quickly and brutally. He does this because the pressure to perform is intense. He has no other choice, and he is smart enough to realize it. That’s what pressure to perform does to a company, makes it either very efficient or puts it out of business. For other examples, see evolution.
 
Tesla can remotely disable the FSD package; supposedly this has happened to buyers of a used Tesla (with presumably FSD) and they haven't been happy about it. Of course, keep in mind, not sure if the dealer actually knew the difference between FSD/basic AP, so there's that, too.

as far as I can remember the explanation behind this was that AP had been erroneously activated on these cars in the first place (the original owner had not paid for it)
 
i’d happily pay starlink 20x that (home, vehicle, devices) if it was great service and allowed me to sever ties with the regular ISPs
I'd happily pay $150/month for all my various bandwidth. Let's see.....Tesla is set to be the innovation leader in energy, transportation, and telecommunication. Sounds profitable.
 
I just noticed something worth mentioning here. Elon has approx 39 mil folks on Twitter that follow him. He follows only approx 100 people. 4 of those are analysts at ARK. Think it’s because he appreciates their core beliefs and perspective. Puts more weight on their credibility in the marketplace. IMO.


Tasha, Brett, Sam and Kathie
Or because he wants to be able to correct any assumptions they post that are very wrong
 
The funny thing is I believe it was filmed in Summer 2019, and the 001 and 002 Rivians look so jury-rigged. They've got these chunky buttons and switches hardwired into the electrics that look like they came out of the bargain bin at a RadioShack.

Photo for those without Apple TV:

rivian_controls.png


Those push buttons and knobs control the ride height, regen, etc. I also got a kick out of all the ones labeled "Do not use."

Also looked up the timeline, this was Rivian's progress as of September 2019.