Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Words of HABIT]

From 2012 to 2020 TSLA averaged a 70% annual growth rate (pre-5-1 split pricing shown below). Understanding the larger the Market Cap, the more difficult it is to maintain its growth rate, thought it would be interesting to run a few scenarios. I believe 30% is fair and achievable over the next ten years. If HODL is your strategy, good for you. Compounding interest is your friend. Little risk and great rewards with peace of mind.

 

[Yuha]

Green does a deep dive on how much less than you (and he) think is actually happening in the actual code.

As Green describes, Tesla collects data about the types of events that happen to interest them at that moment. Once FSD is feature complete and good enough, the interesting events will likely include discrepancies between the FSD and the driver or between two versions of FSD.

 

[smorgasbord]

I'm not talking about an "app store" in a Tesla. They can sell car washes, parking, tires, hotels, drive-thru meals, coffee, anything you might need on the road. Tesla can sign contracts with providers of these services. $10/year doesn't even scratch the surface. Use your imagination.

TomTom already has this for things like parking and cheapest gas prices near the vehicle.

More recently they claimed to be working on a free system for OEMs to put in vehicles. Driving directions come with ads, or the owner can pay a subscription. Since the uptake on nav systems for low-end cars is pretty low, the idea was to capture some revenue for it post-sale. I don't know if it ever came out.

Elon hates advertising. So the chance that they can sell anything from the screen is pretty low. Elon will see this as "Should we give merchants the ability to annoy our drivers and lie to them?" I can see automatically providing a list of services available at superchargers, but little else. In any case, there's no real advantage over people using their phones to get information like this.

You do realize that there is information on the screen available today when you're at a SuperCharger - for instance, the key code to get into the bathroom if it's at a Tesla location that's otherwise closed.

...
I’ll end this with a concrete example. By nature, Elon probably isn’t a hard ass kind of ice blooded manager. He has quite a heart and feels things deeply. Yet we know he has fired a lot of people, quickly and brutally. He does this because the pressure to perform is intense. He has no other choice, and he is smart enough to realize it. That’s what pressure to perform does to a company, makes it either very efficient or puts it out of business. For other examples, see evolution.

Or, as Reed Hastings of NetFlix has put it, it's better to think of your company as a sports team rather than as a family - and you realize how intense sports teams are with their players, right?

 

[dc_h]

One of our neighbors purchased a brand new e-tron...... Wondering how long it’s going to stay in their household...

Question to members: when would you like a drone flyover? Tue morning? During battery day? Afterwards? Anything specific beyond Kato and the Factory? I’m ready!!

Don’t get in trouble. We’d miss the coverage. Monday or early Tuesday, but stay away during event time. I am curious if there’s a lot of trucks taking product down the street and any sign of raw material coming in?

 

[Cosmacelf]

Or, as Reed Hastings of NetFlix has put it, it's better to think of your company as a sports team rather than as a family - and you realize how intense sports teams are with their players, right?

Yes, Hastings also riffs poorly performing employees quite readily. In his case, it might just be because he does have ice in his veins and knows that's the only way to have a successful, growing business.

I'll never forget when Netflix announced they were going to stop mailing out DVDs and go streaming only. The stock dropped, people (including me) were calling Hastings crazy, there were calls for his ouster. That took balls, and was the right move in the end. Kinda wished I had bought Netflix stock at that point

 

[Knightshade]

As Green describes, Tesla collects data about the types of events that happen to interest them at that moment.

Right, external events based on what the car sees outside of it...like "every time you think you see a speed limit sign- send me a picture of it" so they can take those pictures, label them (which is still done by hand, by humans, today) and then use those labeled pictures to train the NN to better recognize speed limit signs.


It's not doing anything like "comparing what the driver did with what the NN thinks it should do"- there's nothing at all like that happening.

Once FSD is feature complete and good enough, the interesting events will likely include discrepancies between the FSD and the driver or between two versions of FSD.

There won't be 2 versions of FSD running. The entire point of the second system is having immediate, redundant, fail-over if one has a problem.

The cars only collect data to feed back to HQ, they do not individually or independently "learn" anything (it'd be kind of nightmarish to diagnose between cars if they did)

Beyond that, I mean, we can speculate about it someday doing things vastly different from what it does now- but none of that is remotely similar to what it does now.

Add on the fact the current code is largely going into the trash can by end of year for an entirely re-written system and the speculation gets even further from anything based on current information.


Hopefully folks like Green will still have enough visibility into what's really happening to clarify these things.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

The Big Short 2.0:

People treating Tesla as just another automaker do so at their own peril

 

[dc_h]

A new, uncommon take on what may come out for BD.

Good video. I agree about Road Runner production in Berlin and Austin and possibly Shanghai and Fremont.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

This video claims Shanghai is shutting down for 10 days. Anyone know anything about that? Retooling? Getting Y ready?

 

[tinyrodent]

The staging lot for deliveries is almost empty.

 

[Bet TSLA]

You do realize that there is information on the screen available today when you're at a SuperCharger - for instance, the key code to get into the bathroom if it's at a Tesla location that's otherwise closed.

Yes. Most of it is useless to me.

 

[steve3]

This morning from @jpr007
A PRIMER FOR BATTERY DAY
Twitter
to which Cathie Wood replied
Twitter

Edit: JPR007 use 55 x 90 cell size in his calculations to arrive at 1 Roadrunner line equates to ~87% of all 13 Panasonic GF1 2170 GWh output & further observations, whereas Jordan at The Limiting Factor estimates the chubby cell pics are closer to 45 x 75.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

JFC

Michigan's New House Bill 6233 Wants To Ban EV Automakers From Doing Business

Michigan politicians are trying to block new electric vehicle manufacturers from doing business in the state. Although carefully worded to include any type of auto manufacturing company, the Michigan “Motor Vehicle Franchise Act” was created specifically to block Tesla from doing business there, an obvious favor to the dealerships. The law already includes certain restrictions on auto manufacturers, restrictions that limit their ability to sell and service their vehicles in the state

 

[MP3Mike]

This video claims Shanghai is shutting down for 10 days. Anyone know anything about that? Retooling? Getting Y ready?

National holiday in China: "National Day" is October 1st through 8th.

 

[Prunesquallor]

https://twitter.com/wholemarsblog/status/1307527712085426177?s=21

 

[Prunesquallor]

JFC

Michigan's New House Bill 6233 Wants To Ban EV Automakers From Doing Business

Michigan politicians are trying to block new electric vehicle manufacturers from doing business in the state. Although carefully worded to include any type of auto manufacturing company, the Michigan “Motor Vehicle Franchise Act” was created specifically to block Tesla from doing business there, an obvious favor to the dealerships. The law already includes certain restrictions on auto manufacturers, restrictions that limit their ability to sell and service their vehicles in the state

The Detroit death spiral continues.

edit: Wait, wasn't Rivian building in Michigan?

 

[Mike Smith]

National holiday in China: "National Day" is October 1st through 8th.

The claim is that production is also shut down for the last 10 days of September (starting today), presumably for upgrades.

 

[dc_h]

This video claims Shanghai is shutting down for 10 days. Anyone know anything about that? Retooling? Getting Y ready?

Seems odd, in 8 years of following Tesla, don’t recall an annual line inspection or any shutdown for 10 days. Could be some retooling or updated assembly processes. Wonder if they’ll start Model 3 casting? I don’t think they could have any roadrunner type production yet.

 

[dc_h]

The Detroit death spiral continues.

edit: Wait, wasn't Rivian building in Michigan?

There should be a clause in the constitution blocking states from this crap. I’d call it the Interstate Commerce Clause. It would keep states from blocking trading goods and services from other states. It would help ensure we act like a single economic system and not a confederation.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Seems odd, in 8 years of following Tesla, don’t recall an annual line inspection or any shutdown for 10 days. Could be some retooling or updated assembly processes. Wonder if they’ll start Model 3 casting? I don’t think they could have any roadrunner type production yet.

To be fair though, this is supposedly a China requirement, and it's the first year that Tesla has been in operation there.