Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Nocturnal]

Battery day is getting close and there really isn't much conversation. I'm surprised. Edit, well the market took dump.

I think the explanation that they exist just to help GM sell direct without dealerships is the best one. Makes me think someone else will gobble up Lordstown motors for the same purpose.

Once the dealers realize this there will be lots of fighting. F them though.

I still say that if GM can sneak in more tax credits by having Nikola sell cars then Tesla should do this with the Boring Co.

 

[Tim S]

I have a request... can we please start moderating ourselves a little more? It is obviously too much work for the moderators. There are way too many "joke" posts and other nonsense to keep up with. Even the informational posts often get repeated several times because most of us can't catch up to the latest post before posting.

So far, I have only "ignored" people who repeatedly post FUD or are very annoying. For my own sanity, I may have to start ignoring people just because they post too much.

Maybe if I post this once a day it will have some effect. It hasn't helped much so far.

 

[Artful Dodger]

... and, MIND THE GAP.

 

[woodisgood]

Macros can do what they want, but barring unexpected news, does anyone doubt the magnetism of 380 for tomorrow’s close?

 

[UkNorthampton]

Battery day is getting close and there really isn't much conversation. I'm surprised. Edit, well the market took dump.

Once the dealers realize this there will be lots of fighting. F them though.

I still say that if GM can sneak in more tax credits by having Nikola sell cars then Tesla should do this with the Boring Co.

I propose the following Not Teslas for the USA credits.

• Neuralink PsychoPiggy (Straw, Wood, Brick editions)
• Boring TurboMole, 4SMole
• SpaceX Moon, Mars, Infinity and Beyond

etc

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Macros can do what they want, but barring unexpected news, does anyone doubt the magnetism of 380 for tomorrow’s close?

$386.98

 

[Dreadnought]

"IF volatility is scary, don't buy our stock" -Elon Musk

I am terrified of the volatility. I was truly horrified yesterday.

But I like horror movies....

I suppose that volatility is perceived less scary on green days. But for the next down day that will inevitably come, everyone should keep in mind that the market is just that guy yelling a different price for your house every second. You still hold the same sized piece of the same great company. Nothing to be scared of, except being overleveraged.

 

[kanweg]

So it’s profits? Can’t just buy 1M of shares and be a Teslanaire?

Right now the most effective way of becoming a teslanaire is buying 2 M in shares and watch it drop below 2 M, I think.

 

[djy]

Maybe if I post this once a day it will have some effect. It hasn't helped much so far.

Wow, I'm way behind. No way I'm reading 30 pages to catch up.

It’s been impossible to keep up with this thread. Would be nice to have a separate locked thread that is just a re-posting of all the best/most informative posts of the day without all the filler. Problem would be finding someone to volunteer for this job. (I would if I was retired.)

 

[woodisgood]

$386.98

Guess it depends on which max pain resource you're using. I use maximum-pain.com, which is currently showing 380. Is there a consensus on which has historically tracked better with TSLA Friday closes?

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Guess it depends on which max pain resource you're using. I use maximum-pain.com, which is currently showing 380. Is there a consensus on which has historically tracked better with TSLA Friday closes?

Yes....my crystal ball In all honesty.....i have no clue.

 

[Zaxxon]

Y’all are gonna make these rules more obscure than S&P inclusion. Maybe you should form a committee.

Sorry, gonna need a cap raise first.

Battery day is getting close and there really isn't much conversation. I'm surprised.

I'm pretty happy about that, actually. Hype around 'big' upcoming Tesla events tends to get so high around here and in the media that there's inevitably some disappointment. I'm pleasantly surprised that we appear to be coasting into battery day with the focus largely on Lucid, Nikola, etc. Would much rather slide in under the radar and then...

Spoiler

 

[Mo City]

I wouldn’t say the expected value is worthless. Remember, the scenarios aren’t deterministic, they're probabilistic. If you run enough "realizations" of the scenarios with the stated probabilities, the average valuation of all those realizations would be $7000.

The expected value of the roll of a six-sided die is 3.5 (1/6x1+1/6x2+...). There is no realization (roll) that will give you 3.5, but if you roll enough times, that is what the average of the outcomes will be. It’s what determines the payout in craps.

Averages are worthless when there is one huge yes-or-no, feast-or-famine determinant that overshadows everything else. Hence, the cancer cure analogy.

Either robotaxis happen or they do not. This is the basis of Ark's two separate share price scenarios: (1) $3,400 and less or (2) $15K and greater.

 

[heltok]

 

[Nocturnal]

Averages are worthless when there is one huge yes-or-no, feast-or-famine determinant that overshadows everything else. Hence, the cancer cure analogy.

Either robotaxis happen or they do not. This is the basis of Ark's two separate share price scenarios: (1) $3,400 and less or (2) $15K and greater.

I don't know. I think there is gray area there. Let's say that Robotaxis never happen for whatever reason, but Tesla is able to sell 10k+ driver assist software that flawlessly drives attentive drivers around. This would be for private cars or ride sharing. That's a huge margin bump if they get a good take rate.

 

[wipster]

$386.98

I see what you did there...

 

[dakh]

So how many "ick engines" does your family own, operate and maintain? Serious question.

Please include any tool or vehicle containing one of these "ick engines".

You can also count pistons (..and rotors I guess, in case someone is in possession of a Wankel-ick). I race and ride various motorcycles as a hobby, so plenty of ick around. One toy electric trials bike, one serious electric trials bike on order that should show up in October (from France no less). Can't wait for higher density batteries to become reality so I can get rid of all this ick in my garage, I have to rebuild them every 50-150 hours of run time!

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I don't know. I think there is gray area there. What if Robotaxis never happen for whatever reason, but Tesla is able to sell 10k+ driver assist software that flawlessly drives attentive drivers around for either personal use or ride sharing.

A monthly subscription service with the performance you listed above, to me at least, would still be worth a lot. As Tesla ramps production into the millions, having people pay anywhere from $100-200/month is huge boost to profits

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Macros dragging market down....$TSLA holding strong...good sign

 

[dakh]

It’s been impossible to keep up with this thread. Would be nice to have a separate locked thread that is just a re-posting of all the best/most informative posts of the day without all the filler. Problem would be finding someone to volunteer for this job. (I would if I was retired.)

Or if there simply was a filter on a number of "like, helpful, informative" ratings, and you could read just those. I tried to figure out a way to do it, but no leads in the first 5 min of trying.