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shrspeedblade
Rideshare Monkey
I'm really curious as to what the new pack sizes will be for the 3. Probably starting with around 55 for 215 mile range, but are the current 60 and 75 packs the S is using currently the older density? I'd be almost positive the 75 would be the Model 3 "big pack" for manufacturing simplicity except the 3 might be using something new, equivalent in density to what's in the P100D now I guess?
SuperDragon
Member
JeffK
Well-Known Member
You know I saw this article and then thought to myself.... this isn't really news to those of us that follow Tesla.
We know that the new cells hold 30-35% more energy.
We know that the newest batteries use a different cooling mechanism allowing them to pack more cells per volume (see P100DL) [11 percent increase]
Therefore it stands to reason that compared to the original Model S battery, even though individual cells are bigger, the Model 3s battery will be 30% more energy dense at the pack level.
This also means we may very well see a 100 kWh Model 3 battery.
85kWh * 1.30 = 110 kWh and subtract some for the difference in size.
If it were to get 215 mi with 55-60 kWh does that mean we might see a nearly 400 mi range???
We know that the new cells hold 30-35% more energy.
We know that the newest batteries use a different cooling mechanism allowing them to pack more cells per volume (see P100DL) [11 percent increase]
Therefore it stands to reason that compared to the original Model S battery, even though individual cells are bigger, the Model 3s battery will be 30% more energy dense at the pack level.
This also means we may very well see a 100 kWh Model 3 battery.
85kWh * 1.30 = 110 kWh and subtract some for the difference in size.
If it were to get 215 mi with 55-60 kWh does that mean we might see a nearly 400 mi range???
Swampgator
Active Member
Jeff I have to agree with you. Also, when you read the comments on Electrek I don't think JB is indicating M3 will have 30% more energy efficient batteries at the time of M3 launch. He Specifically states at the time of M3 design.
Personally I think M3 will have 40% greater density. This will enable the 70 kwh (65 usable) to reach 300+ mile range while that same variant will weigh less than 3800#
Personally I think M3 will have 40% greater density. This will enable the 70 kwh (65 usable) to reach 300+ mile range while that same variant will weigh less than 3800#
shrspeedblade
Rideshare Monkey
I think it's a wee bit on the optimistic side to assume much over 4 mile/kw on the EPA rating. Keep in mind a $35k Model 3 will have to be at least a bit profitable and still hit 215 miles with the smallest battery possible, that would be right around 55kw. That would put a 75 around 280ish, probably a little better for the AWD models.
These would be really good numbers, but I'll be open to being pleasantly surprised/thrilled.
These would be really good numbers, but I'll be open to being pleasantly surprised/thrilled.
Unfortunately, JB doesn't provide what kind of density and exactly how they are measuring it. Specific energy and volumetric density are pretty high on long distance BEVs. At the cell level or at the pack level?
The original Tesla 85 kWh pack was really 81 kWh and weighed about 544 kg, for a pack level specific energy density of 150 Wh/kg. At 30% more dense, assuming JB was talking about pack level specific energy, that's 195 Wh/kg.
The 60 kWh pack was particularly not dense due to the fact that it still had the pack structure of a 85 kWh pack with less modules and fewer cells per module. As a result, at the pack level, the density was worse. The 60 kWh version weighed 223 lbs, or 101 kg less. But it had really 63 kWh in it I believe, so at the pack level, it was 142 Wh/kg.
In comparison, the Chevy Bolt has a 435 kg (960 lb) weight and is nominally 60 kWh, for a specific energy of 138 Wh/kg. The caveat is that we actually don't know the useable versus nominal capacity. There are several instances where it seemed that reviewers actually got 60 kWh out of the Bolt pack, so possibly the Bolt has a larger nominal capacity than GM has specified.
Again, assuming JB was talking about pack level specific energy improvement, presuming a 70 kWh pack at the top level of a Model 3, that's about 360 kg, or 800 pounds. A 100 kWh pack for a Model S would then be 513 kg, or 1,130 lbs.
The original Tesla 85 kWh pack was really 81 kWh and weighed about 544 kg, for a pack level specific energy density of 150 Wh/kg. At 30% more dense, assuming JB was talking about pack level specific energy, that's 195 Wh/kg.
The 60 kWh pack was particularly not dense due to the fact that it still had the pack structure of a 85 kWh pack with less modules and fewer cells per module. As a result, at the pack level, the density was worse. The 60 kWh version weighed 223 lbs, or 101 kg less. But it had really 63 kWh in it I believe, so at the pack level, it was 142 Wh/kg.
In comparison, the Chevy Bolt has a 435 kg (960 lb) weight and is nominally 60 kWh, for a specific energy of 138 Wh/kg. The caveat is that we actually don't know the useable versus nominal capacity. There are several instances where it seemed that reviewers actually got 60 kWh out of the Bolt pack, so possibly the Bolt has a larger nominal capacity than GM has specified.
Again, assuming JB was talking about pack level specific energy improvement, presuming a 70 kWh pack at the top level of a Model 3, that's about 360 kg, or 800 pounds. A 100 kWh pack for a Model S would then be 513 kg, or 1,130 lbs.
Given the increased density and design experience since the model S it will be interesting to see how much more efficient the 3 is vs. the original S. I don't I think is very widely appreciated that the 3 will have two separate factors contributing to increased efficiency (battery energy density + smaller car).
Bet TSLA
Active Member
Three separate factors. It's also better than 10% slipperier. We might be looking at 240m/340m range for two different battery sizes close to 60kWh/85kWh.
JeffK
Well-Known Member
As a company, wouldn't you want to maximize profits and offer a higher margin version of a low priced car?
No one outside of Tesla knows. We can only guess at maybe 10 to 15%
It is obvious that a Model 3 with the largest optional battery will have a longer range than a Model S with the base battery, so in that sense the answer to your question is an unambiguous "Yes". Other car companies offer smaller cars that get a significantly higher MPG than their largest high end models and that can translate to greater range. However, we really do not know if the highest capacity Model 3 battery will offer equivalent or greater range than a Model S with the highest capacity optional battery. I think it is possible that will be the case.
That's what I was thinking. In other car companies, the higher models are about more luxury and not necessarily about range (though some higher-end luxury SUV's have some incredible range). If this also relates to Tesla, then they could technically make the model 3 capable of being optioned for greater range over the S without encroaching on it's "supremeness". Though with battery packs that are in equal density and assuming the model S battery pack will always be volumetrically larger, Tesla could technically always have the model S at or above the range of it's smaller sibling (model 3). It's interesting to think about.
It appears that Tesla wants to slow down on battery research at the 100KWh packs to focus on other things. If that's the case, I now wonder when they would start focusing on battery packs again.
Yes, I am wondering if Tesla would release the 3 with less range than the Bolt at the standard battery level. Do they not care becauae the 3 will be much better in all other aspects or could they not stand to have less range than the Bolt?
Here is my best guess:
2017 and 2018:
Model 3 55, 222 mi EPA rated range
Model 3 55D, 230 mi EPA rated range
Model 3 P75D, 280 mi EPA rated range
Model 3 75, 285 mi EPA rated range
Model 3 75D, 295 mi EPA rated range
In 2019, I think Tesla will upgrade the Model 3 battery sizes to 60 and 80 kWh.
2017 and 2018:
Model 3 55, 222 mi EPA rated range
Model 3 55D, 230 mi EPA rated range
Model 3 P75D, 280 mi EPA rated range
Model 3 75, 285 mi EPA rated range
Model 3 75D, 295 mi EPA rated range
In 2019, I think Tesla will upgrade the Model 3 battery sizes to 60 and 80 kWh.
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Reasonable guesses. I believe Tesla's VP of Investor Relations is on record saying the base model would have less than a 60kWh pack.
But, given the 238 mile line in the sand, it's not unreasonable to think Musk would want to own that Marketing point if at all possible. A wild guess would be that he's given his engineering team the ("impossible") goal of beating that with whatever battery size (55kWh?) they've already chosen.
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