Tesla Exports by country- Noisy data but...

[jbcarioca]

Searching for public data regarding Tesla exports from the US I finally discovered the obvious'
There is no code for BEV's, but there is this:
Passenger Motor Vehicles, Nesoi HS Code 870390
NESOI- Not Elsewhere Specified Or Indicated
That is the wonderful place where motor vehicles that do not meet any predefined categories of spark or compression ignition are placed. This category has been populated for years, covering mostly things like GEM and other road going low speed urban electric golf-cart like things.

What I discovered was that suddenly this data category showed huge growth in 2008, with a new exporting state appearing. California was that state. OK, it could have been several things, but suddenly two countries showed up in the top Importers from the US. No extra points for guessing them: China and Norway.

What Nesoi suddenly began to be exported from California in such significance that they dwarfed all other states and changed the rank order of importing countries while rising total US exports?

My source has been Flexport because it is easiest to use of all the available sources, in my opinion anyway. It might be just that I am accustomed to them.

HS Code 870390 - Trade Statistics, Tariff Rates for Passenger Motor Vehicles, Nesoi

Tesla conveniently explains this..

U.S. Import and Export DataPassenger Motor Vehicles, Nesoi HS Code 870390
Overview
IMPORTS
$1BN$2BN$3BN200820092010201120122013201420152016
20082016
Top Origin Country

Japan
Top Destination State

California
EXPORTS
No Data$1BN$2BN$3BN200820092010201120122013201420152016
20082016
Top Destination Country

China
Top Origin State

California
Import Export Rankings (2017)
U.S. Import Rank (amongst 6 digit HS Codes) 504th (of 5832)
U.S. Export Rank (amongst 6 digit HS Codes) 119th
Top Importing States Michigan ($305,551,364), California ($224,597,115), Washington ($17,522,399), and Indiana ($12,257,680)
Top Exporting States California ($2,039,614,167), Florida ($154,903,943), Michigan ($105,413,843), and New York ($52,406,672)
Top Countries Importing from the U.S. China ($1,026,388,901), Canada ($353,045,291), Norway ($280,775,744), and Hong Kong ($214,420,762)
Top Countries Exporting to the U.S. Mexico ($208,824,820), Korea, South ($172,285,235), Germany ($151,472,060), and Japan ($43,731,202)
U.S. Tariff Rates
Heading/
Subheading Article
Description Unit of
Quantity General Special
8703.90.00.00 Other No. 2.5% Free (A+, AU, B, BH, CA, CL, CO, D, E, IL, JO, KR, MA, MX, OM, P, PA, PE, SG)
Ruling
Date Ruling
Category
Tariff No Ruling Reference Related
07/07/2015 NY N266220
Classification
8703.90.0000 The tariff classification of battery powered recreational vehicle from China
06/01/2015 NY N264904
Classification
8703.90.0000 The tariff classification of mobility scooters from China
04/03/2014 NY N251882
Classification
8703.90.0000 The tariff classification of a new motor vehicle from South Korea
04/26/2013 NY N240855
Classification
8703.90.0000
8704.90.0000 The tariff classification of replica Land Rover Defenders from the United Kingdom
05/04/2011 NY N159938
Classification
8703.90.0000 The tariff classification of an electric vehicle from Japan
09/17/2010 HQ H105331
Classification
8703.90.00 Request for Binding Ruling for Breeze LS low speed vehicle
11/24/2009 HQ H010587
Classification
8703.90.0000 Application for Further Review of Protest No: 2809-07-100165; Electric three-wheeled cars
04/30/2009 HQ H021296
Classification
8703.90.00 The tariff classification of a low-speed electric vehicle imported from Korea 961512
04/21/2009 NY N055924
Classification
8703.90.0000 The tariff classification of an incomplete vehicle from Mexico
08/27/2007 NY N015977
Classification
8703.90.0000 The tariff classification of electric scooters from China
07/08/2004 NY K87586
Classification
8703.90.0000 The tariff classification of Battery Powered Electric Cars from China
10/18/2002 NY I86623
Classification
8703.90.0000 The tariff classification of an All Terrain Vehicle (ATV) from Korea and Taiwan
07/25/2002 NY I83967
Classification
8703.90.0000 The tariff classification of Kewet Electric Vehicle from Norway
02/01/2002 NY H87912
Classification
8703.90.0000 The tariff classification of a “Mars 50” and “Mars 90” All Terrain Vehicle (ATV) from Taiwan
03/29/2001 NY G89309
Classification
8703.90.0000 The tariff classification of Electric Vehicles from Canada
03/01/2001 NY G87489
Classification
8703.90.0000 The tariff classification of Passenger Motor Vehicle Without An Engine from Germany
01/27/2000 NY F82069
Classification
8703.90.0000 The tariff classification of a "Classic 427" Fiberglass Sports Car from China
04/24/1998 HQ 961512
Classification
8703.90.00 Neighborhood Electric Vehicle (NEV); Motor Vehicles Principally Designed for the Transport of Persons, Heading 8703, Golf Carts and Similar Vehicles, Subheading 8703.10.50; Other Motor Vehicles, Subheading 8703.90.00; Marubeni America Corp. v. U.S., THK America, Inc. v. U.S.
Destination Countries
$0$1,100,000,000
No DataCHNCANNORHKGCHEVENDEUAUSLBNJPNVNMBENMEX
Show more
Origin States
$0$2,200,000,000
No DataCAFLMINYTXNJMDTNWAGAALPROR
Show more
U.S. Trade Data Categorized by Harmonized System Code
Flexport’s import and export data is sourced from US

 

[jbcarioca]

In the previous post I pasted the primary reference page from Flexport that shows rulings at the end. I use rulings as a way to confirm the accuracy of an otherwise amorphous category. Note that they all relate to imports of BEV's, low powered almost all. There are not export rulings so we have less accurate data, but:
US export States tell us who is where pretty accurately.

So, to ensure I was thinking clearly I went to the US Census and found this for California:
State Exports from California
Rank HS Code Description 2013 2014 2015 2016 % Change, 2015 - 2016
10 870390 PASSENGER MOTOR VEHICLES, NESOI 600 1,354 1,277 2,038 59.5

This confirms what we probably all already thought we knew, or did know from other sources.

 

[jbcarioca]

Next step, do all the calculations to determine what motor vehicle exports are already significant to the US. For the sake of NAFTA issue minimization I will exclude Canada and Mexico because they are both essentially domestic US for todays's analysis anyway. When excluding those two countries we neatly solve for the brands. Further we can extend that to other states but it would be arduous to become brand specific because of both NAFTA and State by State allocation by US-based manufacturers other than Tesla.

I was pleased that this approach neatly reconciles with Tesla's disclosure of more that $ one billion China sales in 2016. Obviously they are California's only producer and exporter of 870390.

Spoiler alert: California, Alabama, South Carolina and Ohio are leaders... or should I have said, Tesla, Mercedes Benz, BMW and Honda.

More will come if you figure it is worthwhile. Please advise me.