Tesla confirms Model 3 will have less than 60kWh battery option

[gregincal]

Yeah, I don't know that they expected the 40 to be the best seller, but they were certainly surprised about the number of people that ordered the 85. This is from the Q4 2012 earnings call:

Elon Musk:
It’s definitely -- more people are ordering the larger battery pack than we thought. It seems to be that like – I can say like less than 10% of people are ordering the 40-kilowatt-hour pack. That’s an interesting data point. I’m not saying that couldn’t change in the future, but that’s what we’re seeing right now sort of maybe 10% or less.

A majority of people are ordering the big battery pack actually which is, and I wouldn’t count on that in the long term, but a majority of people are actually, one-third percent are ordering the 85-kilowatt-hour pack which is a positive surprise.

 

[Red Sage]

No, I'm saying maybe check in with reality once in a while when making statements of "fact" without any actual support.

JRP3: You have just earned an [IGNORE] prize! Please feel free to ignore my posts from now on. Goodbye.

 

[JRP3]

JRP3: You have just earned an [IGNORE] prize! Please feel free to ignore my posts from now on. Goodbye.

I'm a winner!

 

[tomas]

OK. I remember an interview with Elon Musk where, if I recall correctly, he stated they had expected the exact reverse of order distribution. Meaning, the Model S 60 would have the same percentage as it received ~25%-to-30%... The Model S 40 would be their best seller... And the Model S 85 would be less than 10% of their sales. I'll post a link to that once I find it, but I sort of remember it was either Reuters or CNN that he told that to during 2013, if not both of them.

I'm not going to mince words like the others: you recall incorrectly.

In the end Elon referred to the 40kW model as a "hobbled horse". My suspicion was the 40kW model was only there to meet the "under $50k" claims they had been making for so long. The Engadget Interview: Tesla's Elon Musk promises more Superchargers, better service, cheaper EVs that don't suck

Agree that might have been part of the rationale, but had the 40 been a big seller, they would have found a way to adapt. Now we will challege MY recall! I do not recall that you could get an S Sig in 40kWh. I do recall that when I took shipment (December 2012), they were shipping mainly P85s. Had I wanted an 85, 60 or 40, I would have had to wait. In early 2013, wait list was 3 or 4 months. I'd guess by then it was pretty apparent there was no need for the 40, everybody was buying 95s and 60s.

 

[ecarfan]

I do recall that when I took shipment (December 2012), they were shipping mainly P85s. Had I wanted an 85, 60 or 40, I would have had to wait. In early 2013, wait list was 3 or 4 months. I'd guess by then it was pretty apparent there was no need for the 40, everybody was buying 95s and 60s.

I think that is an accurate characterization of the situation at that time.

I do not think Tesla intended any deception by offering the 40. They simply could not accurately predict the battery option demand mix because they were offering a vehicle that had never existed before: a very expensive luxury long range BEV. There was no precedent for such a product.

 

[wdolson]

The statistics show that the average person drives less than 100 miles a day and except for road trips, a 100 miles BEV should work for most people. However experience since the Model S launch shows people go for the most range they can afford. The best seller today by a large margin is the 90D (looking at the Model S ordering and delivery spreadsheet), which is the longest range BEV built up to this time. At least for a mass production car, there are probably one offs with more range.

There seems to be a psychological thing at 200 miles of range and another around 250. The 90D is still the best seller, but looking at the spreadsheet the 70D's sales have gone up now that it's flirting with 250 miles of range. It's too early to tell if people will go for the 75 KWh option in large numbers but it pushes the range over that 250 mile range threshold. In the same ballpark of the original P85.

There will probably be another psychological barrier crossed when the 90D gets a combined EPA range over 300 miles, it's already rated that for highway mileage. 300 miles is the low end range for ICEs. Most I've seen are around 400 miles highway range.

 

[SageBrush]

The statistics show that the average person drives less than 100 miles a day and except for road trips,

How many average people bought the car ?

 

[wdolson]

How many average people bought the car ?

Just pointing out that going into the Model S project, nobody knew for sure what Model S features were going to be most popular.

 

[jkk_]

The statistics show that the average person drives less than 100 miles a day and except for road trips, a 100 miles BEV should work for most people.

You had the key thing there also, "except for road trips". We are a one car family and that car needs to fulfill our family's needs. We won't rent a car for the couple trips make every year. As such, we need the biggest battery so we can do the trips even in winter without the fear of ending up at the side of the road.

 

[SageBrush]

We won't rent a car for the couple trips make every year

Why ?

 

[ecarfan]

Once you've driven a quality long range EV like a Tesla, driving an ICE is painfully unpleasant.

I agree with @jkk_. Despite the fact that almost all car trips are much less than 100 miles a day, that does not mean that a 100 mile range EV will be a big seller. Recent history shows short range EVs have a limited market. Most people want a car that has the capability of driving long distances without lengthy stops to charge.

 

[jkk_]

Why ?

Since I've already invested (don't like "invested" word here since you really don't ever get your money back with cars) my money in a car, I expect it to fulfill the frequent needs I have. Furthermore, I don't want to have the additional hassle. Out of curiosity, wanted to check price since we started talking about this, I tried to get information from the closest rental service website with 5 different dates and all I got was an error message.

I could go on, but short answer: I don't want to

 

[SageBrush]

Out of curiosity, wanted to check price since we started talking about this, I tried to get information from the closest rental service website with 5 different dates and all I got was an error message.

Good for you. At least now you have an idea of how much hassle might be involved. I tend to be frugal with money, so I would consider the extra money a larger battery costs compared to e.g. five years of rentals to have a general idea of how much I'm paying to avoid hassle.

We live in a small town with a car rental agency a short bicycle ride away, so I personally find a rental for the odd long trip a reasonable alternative.

 

[Laban]

Recent history shows short range EVs have a limited market.

That might have something to do with the fact that the current short range EVs are expensive, and usually rather ugly on top of that.

 

[ucmndd]

The statistics show that the average person drives less than 100 miles a day and except for road trips, a 100 miles BEV should work for most people. However experience since the Model S launch shows people go for the most range they can afford. The best seller today by a large margin is the 90D (looking at the Model S ordering and delivery spreadsheet), which is the longest range BEV built up to this time. At least for a mass production car, there are probably one offs with more range.

I'm on the extreme end of driving and mileage needs at ~120 miles/day. In theory, a 215 mile EV would be fine for me almost 100% of the time. That said, I'm likely to purchase the larger battery for a few reasons:

* "Almost 100% of the time". But not always. The added insurance of a larger battery pack is worth some peace of mind for those extraordinary occasions.
* As I generally keep cars a long time, I see a larger battery pack as a buffer against eventual battery degradation. While a brand new pack rated at 215 miles will likely be just fine right now, it could get uncomfortably close with 5+ years of degradation, poor weather, etc.

 

[JeffK]

I'm on the extreme end of driving and mileage needs at ~120 miles/day.

That sounds like a nightmare and a huge waste of time unless you get paid for that travel time. I don't envy that. I guess people do what they have to do.

 

[Az_Rael]

That sounds like a nightmare and a huge waste of time unless you get paid for that travel time. I don't envy that. I guess people do what they have to do.

It's a California thing. Housing costs skyrocket in the cities, so people move farther and farther away from their jobs to be able to afford housing.

 

[ucmndd]

That sounds like a nightmare and a huge waste of time unless you get paid for that travel time. I don't envy that. I guess people do what they have to do.

It's a conscious choice, everything in life involves compromise.

We live in a rural area, I suppose I'm compensated for my travel time in the sense that nowhere closer could pay me half as much to do what I do. I love where I live, and I love my job. It would be great if they were a little closer together, but I suppose you can't have everything.

Commute-wise, it's very low stress. Zero traffic, average speed 60 mph. Half rural farm road, half freeway. Perfect use case for Autopilot.
Given the choice, I'd take the longer zero-traffic commute vs. a half or even quarter distance in urban gridlock.

 

[SageBrush]

That sounds like a nightmare and a huge waste of time unless you get paid for that travel time. I don't envy that. I guess people do what they have to do.

Translate it into car hours compared to big city commutes and you may be surprised.

Edit: I see ucmdd beat me to it. My situation is similar, since I live 45 miles from work and live in a small town. The 90 mile round trip is actually a large part of why I have not bought a 'commuter' EV, but the Model ☰ will solve my range problem.

 

[landis]

My situation is similar, since I live 45 miles from work and live in a small town. The 90 mile round trip is actually a large part of why I have not bought a 'commuter' EV, but the Model ☰ will solve my range problem.

Same here.
45 miles in 60 minutes by generally avoiding Philly metro area peak rush hour is quite tolerable.