-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Surprise R and D project
- Thread starter Chickenlittle
- Start date
-
- Tags
- TSLA
dauger
Member
I'd guess the "cards" TM is "not showing" is a counter strategy to Hydrogen economy as described here:
Auto Industry Playing Dirty With Hydrogen - Blogs - Tesla Motors Club - Enthusiasts & Owners Forum
Because it's a distraction from Tesla at the very least, and a potentially huge waste of time and money. TM would want to counter FCEV's claimed advantages over PEVs, specifically:
1. Superdupercharging: half the battery in 10, if not under 5, minutes. JB last year implied it could be done. Other than 0.5 MW DC charging, I don't see how.
2. 400 or more miles of range: There was recent talk of roadster battery upgrades. Maybe a 120 kWh option on new Model S/X, possible only with the retooled production line?
Maybe these two go together. A rearrangement of the cells to enable both "Gen 2.5" features, or even the battery pack switching its series-parallel configuration to be optimal for charging vs for driving.
Then again, if I'm right, am I tipping TM's hand to the Hydrogen conspirators?
Edit for further support of my theory: Opening up the patents was TM's first counter move to Hydrogen to throw a bone/carrot to the automakers thinking about Hydrogen vs. Battery.
Auto Industry Playing Dirty With Hydrogen - Blogs - Tesla Motors Club - Enthusiasts & Owners Forum
Because it's a distraction from Tesla at the very least, and a potentially huge waste of time and money. TM would want to counter FCEV's claimed advantages over PEVs, specifically:
1. Superdupercharging: half the battery in 10, if not under 5, minutes. JB last year implied it could be done. Other than 0.5 MW DC charging, I don't see how.
2. 400 or more miles of range: There was recent talk of roadster battery upgrades. Maybe a 120 kWh option on new Model S/X, possible only with the retooled production line?
Maybe these two go together. A rearrangement of the cells to enable both "Gen 2.5" features, or even the battery pack switching its series-parallel configuration to be optimal for charging vs for driving.
Then again, if I'm right, am I tipping TM's hand to the Hydrogen conspirators?
Edit for further support of my theory: Opening up the patents was TM's first counter move to Hydrogen to throw a bone/carrot to the automakers thinking about Hydrogen vs. Battery.
Last edited:
Some things said here make sense, other things don't make that much sense. My views:
1. Electric buses, trucks, large scale grid storage, working with other car companies, etc doesn't seem too likely given the limited supply of batteries. This is more likely to happen in 5 years.
2. V2G doesn't seem to likely. It's a neat technology, but the commercial potential isn't that big. Tesla wants to go into the mass market, and these sorts of products don't further that goal.
3. Significantly faster supercharging doesn't seem too likely. There are just too many limitations Tesla is pushing up against. Grid capacity, plug design limits, battery limitations, etc. It's more important for Tesla to get more superchargers installed.
4. Additional features like autonomous driving, AWD, etc is probably part of the R&D. Adding features on the Model S/X allows them to fully test them on tens of thousands of vehicles before they integrate them on the Gen 3, which is very good for Tesla long-term. People who buy the Model S are early adopters, willing to experience some discomfort while serving as guinea pigs.
5. Longer range batteries is possible. I'm thinking there wouldn't be that much R&D involved in tweaking the battery pack architecture or making the same pack with higher capacity cells, but if they've finally started looking at a hybrid li-ion/metal-air battery, that could easily absorb a lot of capital. This could also be tied in with battery swapping. I have previously considered the idea that Tesla might have a specific battery-swap battery, with longer range. Metal-air makes it possible to have a 600 mile range battery, and if any 60 kWh Model S owner could rent a 600 mile battery at an acceptable cost, that would certainly impact public perception.
1. Electric buses, trucks, large scale grid storage, working with other car companies, etc doesn't seem too likely given the limited supply of batteries. This is more likely to happen in 5 years.
2. V2G doesn't seem to likely. It's a neat technology, but the commercial potential isn't that big. Tesla wants to go into the mass market, and these sorts of products don't further that goal.
3. Significantly faster supercharging doesn't seem too likely. There are just too many limitations Tesla is pushing up against. Grid capacity, plug design limits, battery limitations, etc. It's more important for Tesla to get more superchargers installed.
4. Additional features like autonomous driving, AWD, etc is probably part of the R&D. Adding features on the Model S/X allows them to fully test them on tens of thousands of vehicles before they integrate them on the Gen 3, which is very good for Tesla long-term. People who buy the Model S are early adopters, willing to experience some discomfort while serving as guinea pigs.
5. Longer range batteries is possible. I'm thinking there wouldn't be that much R&D involved in tweaking the battery pack architecture or making the same pack with higher capacity cells, but if they've finally started looking at a hybrid li-ion/metal-air battery, that could easily absorb a lot of capital. This could also be tied in with battery swapping. I have previously considered the idea that Tesla might have a specific battery-swap battery, with longer range. Metal-air makes it possible to have a 600 mile range battery, and if any 60 kWh Model S owner could rent a 600 mile battery at an acceptable cost, that would certainly impact public perception.
Last edited:
Those are good points, but the range of the batteries isn't really that relevant anymore especially with the superchargers, it's the cost. And the cost is the big ace that they have up their sleeve, they just haven't finished building it yet (gigafactory). When the gigafactory is up and running batteries costs will be cheaper than gas; economies of scale+ improvements in batt chemistry, safety, convenience, and software = royal flush.
Last edited:
dauger
Member
I personally agree with you that is the truth, and we benefit from our success using Tesla's solution. But some Hydrogen proponents are doing everything they can to hide that truth you and I agree on. I'm concerned about disinformation touting Hydrogen as better like:
Everything You Need to Know About Fuel Cell Vehicles
Is Tesla's EV The Future Of Autos? Probably Not - Forbes
Those who drive a Tesla, or who know Tesla well enough, won't be fooled, but this manipulation of everyone else's perception is the sort of thing I could see making Elon angry (and me too! Remember the Broder...). So I could see Elon preparing a skunkworks to counter the two primary Hydrogen proponents' claimed advantages (under 10 min recharge and 300+ miles range) over Tesla tech head-on and by surprise (e.g., before Toyota's FCV comes out) to steer public perception away from Hydrogen and preempt a drawn-out battle. It seems like something he would do. Maybe Elon figured it out when Toyota dropped the Tesla-powered RAV4?
I'm a shareholder, and I don't work for TM, so I'm just putting this idea together from public info. If it's right I'd say: Go Elon!
Imagine: In Jan '15, a demo on stage in Hawthorne, like the Battery Swap demo, with a prototype 400-mile battery pack in a Roadster refilling using a 1/2 MW Superdupercharger alongside a live video feed from a FCV filling at the Torrance Hydrogen station. Who will win? Post it on YouTube. Would this create the perception Tesla needs?
Last edited:
jhm
Well-Known Member
Suppose Tesla had a new line of battery packs with 20% more range for no additional cost to customers. They would not be able to announce this until they were able to deliver the new line. Otherwise, if they announced this say 4 months in advance, many prospective buyers would simply delay their purchase until the upgrade is available. Nobody wants to buy an obsolete product at full price. So Tesla needs to be very careful about communicating upgrades.
They don't need a 400 mile battery pack. The range of the Hyundai Fuel Cell is 265 miles. They can go head to head with that one. And put a supercharger map next to a hydrogen station map. But all of this would be stoking demand, which Tesla doesn't want to do. Maybe they can do this at Model X launch. Plus filling hydrogen is not like filling gas. It takes 10 minutes (according to Hyundai).
I wouldn't worry too much about hydrogen, it's cool technology and hopefully it will continue developing but it just won't be able to compete with electric anytime soon. Electric has better performance, better safety, better utility, and better economics. The Model T cost $800 in 1905 and by the 1920's it was $260 (per wikipedia), that's basically what they are trying to do with batteries+electric generation right now.
Excellent point. Tesla may be close to a significant improvement in pack range without raising prices. Even a 10% bump would be a big deal if there is no price increase. But they can't let word get out until the new packs are in production because people would postpone their purchase decision. So they have to keep quiet and wait until the new packs are done.
stephenpace
VIN S00219
In a world where Tesla is moving to be more like SpaceX in the patent arena, it makes a lot of sense to delay announcing novel things, if indeed the hidden cards represent a novel item.
You know what would be cool... An electric motorhome...
Why:
A) double the floor space means ability to have larger battery
B) all the expense if driving across the country is fuel
C) you stop every night and.... Plugin at rv sites already
D) buyers of high end rvs are already spending $150k+ for the unit so price sensitivity is gone already
E) elon does have lots of kids
I doubt this is it... But it's worth thinking
Why:
A) double the floor space means ability to have larger battery
B) all the expense if driving across the country is fuel
C) you stop every night and.... Plugin at rv sites already
D) buyers of high end rvs are already spending $150k+ for the unit so price sensitivity is gone already
E) elon does have lots of kids
I doubt this is it... But it's worth thinking
You also don't want to create product overhang--if these are MS/MX relevant features, announcing them before they can deliver them will mean folks will hold off placing orders until the new tech it orderable which will screw things up.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Agree very much. It's basically what jhm said up thread about better battery packs that could be in the works:
Don't forget showing a fuel cell vehicle in a crash and resultant mushroom cloud alongside a Model S crash and resultant fizzle
Neverwet isn't clear, but it is something just about everyone thinks when they see the product demo'ed. I see it going on paint first where a little bit of color or something isn't necessarily bad (white on white for instance).
Tesla isn't trying to go head to head with hydrogen cars, they're going head to head with ICE cars. To do that they need a 500 marketing mile battery (400 real world miles). Fuel Cells are just a distraction as has been discussed on many threads.
Similar threads
- Locked
