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Stray Model X Production rationale posts

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The point being, of course, that to date the Germans have offered absolutely zero EVs that can compete with Tesla.

And when Audi finally comes out with their EV in a few years, who will buy the first electric a company has ever made, with no experience in battery management or high power electric power trains and limited super charging options, over what Tesla will be offering at that point with years of refinement and 1,000,000 mile power trains?
 
The Church of Tesla.

OK the $4,000 loss per car I agree is misleading. That's just the cash burn against cars sold. They are however still spending MORE than they EARN and even Elon is not predicting profitability under "normal accounting rules" before 2020. I appreciate you must invest to make money.......but my point is that much of the upcoming competition already have profitable car businesses with history, reputations and engineers that know how to make cars.

No way would I buy a Panamera over a Tesla S these days. The Panamera is an ugly dog compared - I know - it's what I drive whilst I wait for the Tesla X vapourware.

I just think Tesla should start getting worried about the competition and stop dicking about with stuff like pointless gullwing doors until they have cracked the market. It's clear for example that 90% of people would prefer 2nd row seats that go flat compared to daft rear doors (that are useless because the front doors are standard).

There may be some who could go without the Falcon Wing Doors -- Gull Wing is different. There may be some that wish for or even require a folding bench seat. However, that number is no where near 90%. According to Model X tracker, 17 cancellation have been documented -- not bad out of an estimated 25-30K reservation. Currently, in the Premium Luxury Sedan market, Tesla is the leader and causing Mercedes, BMW and Audi to rethink their strategies. Now Tesla has the best accelerating Sedan and SUV in the premium segment. They are supply constrained, they sell all the Model S they can make after nearly 3 years in production. Not a bad problem to have.

Sure, they could eliminate the Falcon Wing Doors, put in a bench folding seat, leave off Auto Pilot and use a single 300 HP motor and would wind up producing a $80,000 MINI-VAN. The strategy is to take the high ground, where some early adopters are willing to pay a premium for uniqueness. They will get to the mundane with the Model III. I don't recall Elon saying no profit until 2020. The last I understood was 2016 -- Read the Credit Suisse estimate for 2016 -- Credit Suisse: Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) Stock Has 49% Upside | InvestorPlace. Unfortunately, we tend to focus on the instant profits, rather than long term strategies. Maybe that Strategy is the cause of our companies being less competitive around the world. IMO the long-term investment is a great strategy, with an eye on the short term as well.

I test drove the Model S twice (with and without Autopilot) and attended the launch of the Model X with a test ride. After 40 years of buying cars -- I have never experienced more innovative vehicles than Tesla manufacturers. I always ask, why do I want a new model when all I really have is a reworked model and a new car payment. Sure, you could buy a $75,000 SUV with no Falcon Wing Doors, and Folding Bench seats -- it's called a Cadillac Escalade or an updated 20 year old Chevy Suburban.
 
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With the huge amounts of screnshots generated by people trying to share information about their Tesla order I am sure you will not believe my screenshot below. But I can assure you I most certainly do have a Tesla X on order. Do you need to see my shares as well?

I don't see what is bizarre about my comments. I am not a troll by any means. I simply disagree (with an attempt at some humour) about the way Tesla are running parts of the operation.

I am also fully aware that Tesla currently have no competition and everyone is playing catch-up. Tesla has shown that it is possible to build a 200 mile+ electric only car, when everyone else was focused on hybrids. The others have been caught with their pants down for sure.

But talking of bizarre, I personally think many of the things Tesla are doing are looking bizarre from a customer relations viewpoint. At the moment they have a waiting list and can do no wrong, but I think there is too much arrogance in this position. I think Ford with his Model-T was in a similar dominant position years ago, he set the pace, but everyone caught him up.



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they sell all the Model S they can make after nearly 3 years in production. Not a bad problem to have.

They only made 35,000 cars last year. Its the only fully electric car you can buy that goes further than the end of the street - of course they can sell 35,000.

I don't recall Elon saying no profit until 2020. The last I understood was 2016

Tesla Motors Inc. Chief Executive Elon Musk told an auto industry gathering the Silicon Valley auto maker will need until 2020 to be profitable on a basis that includes charges and executive compensation.
Mr. Musk, making a rare visit to Detroit during the city's annual auto show, said Tesla's Model 3 will need to be in full production mode by the end of the decade to meet the profit goal. The Model 3 is planned as a cheaper and less capable electric car slotted under the Model S sedan and forthcoming Model X SUV in Tesla's lineup.



Tesla wont turn profitable until 2020: Musk - MarketWatch
 
Referencing such an ill-informed and deliberately exaggerated article (with a click bait title) does not lend credence to your position regarding the Falcon Wing doors.
Your frequent use of hyperbole and gross exaggeration also does not help you. I believe I can understand some of your criticisms of Tesla, but the inflammatory way you present them is obviously going to result in strong reactions against your position, which then leads to heated exchanges where little is accomplished other than ill will on both sides.
I recommend that you tone down your language and seek to have a constructive discussion of your concerns.
Consider this: word your posts as if you were face-to-face in the real world with other members of TMC. In such a situation I hope your choice of words would be more courteous.
 
Just wait until I tell them I don't believe in global warming..........:wink:

I hear you @ecarfan - I have been on forums before. I just wasn't quite expecting the immediate over-defensive responses, so came back with some slightly more feisty comments.

I am not saying I agree with the links I posted - I was just making the point that the internet is a big world and I am NOT the only person that thinks the gullwing doors are a *questionable* feature, or that the release of information from Tesla is *not ideal*, or that the Tesla promises have not always been *100% reliable*.

(nice enough?)
 
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They only made 35,000 cars last year. Its the only fully electric car you can buy that goes further than the end of the street - of course they can sell 35,000.
"Only" 35k is pretty good when considering the original target for the Model S was 20k/year. And this year that figure will be 50-52k, next year 80-90k. ~50% annual growth is considered pretty good in most industries.

Tesla Motors Inc. Chief Executive Elon Musk told an auto industry gathering the Silicon Valley auto maker will need until 2020 to be profitable on a basis that includes charges and executive compensation.
Mr. Musk, making a rare visit to Detroit during the city's annual auto show, said Tesla's Model 3 will need to be in full production mode by the end of the decade to meet the profit goal. The Model 3 is planned as a cheaper and less capable electric car slotted under the Model S sedan and forthcoming Model X SUV in Tesla's lineup.

Tesla wont turn profitable until 2020: Musk - MarketWatch
"Profitable" is a less relevant metric than "cash-flow positive", though both are fudgible by increasing/lowering investments. The latter will happen in Q1 2016, and ensures that Tesla will continue to invest in continually improving their products and increasing sales. And then higher sales means more profits, which means more funds available for investment. Going from one gigafactory to ten gigafactories can be pretty quick.
 
In retrospect, I wish they did standard doors on model X - if I remember correctly, getting the doors right was one of the reasons production got delayed. They are sure cool, though...

There was a comment earlier on who will buy the first electric car from Audi since they have no track record. This is a little funny, did we not all get an electric car from a company that never produced anything in large scale before model S? I sure did, have no regrets. If Audi finally gets a decent car out there, I am sure there will be enough buyers.
 
getting the doors right was one of the reasons production got delayed.

This depends on which side of the fence you currently sit. If everything Tesla does is perfect in your eyes then the doors are awesome and did not add any delay to the project. If you are a heretic then the doors delayed things for probably a year, and cost huge amounts in engineer time, wages and effort. Something delayed the launch by over 2 years so if it wasn't partly the doors then what was it?

This is a little funny, did we not all get an electric car from a company that never produced anything in large scale before model S?

Another heretic. They are gonna run out of seats in hell for us pretty soon. You can buy a new electric Tesla because it is Tesla, but a new electric Audi would be madness as those guys have no track record in building electric cars.

"Profitable" is a less relevant metric than "cash-flow positive", though both are fudgible by increasing/lowering investments.

Hey it's fine. I understand the model. I am not saying they are going bust tomorrow. I am just saying that because Tesla is a one-trick pony at the time of writing (they have 1 car in production, hopefully another next year) and they have a non-profitable cash-burn business model then they are in a riskier position than someone like Toyota or Mercedes. You might not like the facts - but that is how it is.
 
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In retrospect, I wish they did standard doors on model X - if I remember correctly, getting the doors right was one of the reasons production got delayed. They are sure cool, though...

Other people have mentioned this too, but we wouldn't have bought the X without the Falcon doors. It was a requirement that the 3rd row be accessible with car seats in the 2nd.

I think more people would not have bought a Model X with a sliding door, than would without access to the 3rd row, IMHO.
 
You know nothing John Snow. (sorry could not resist that one)

Hmmmmmm. So if you wouldn't have bought the X without falcon doors, and we know there is no other car on the market with those doors........errrr........would you have just caught the bus in future and not have a car anymore? As there is no other option?

p.s. No reason for a sliding door. Stuff like the X5, Cayenne, Tourag all just have normal doors.
 
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This depends on which side of the fence you currently sit. If everything Tesla does is perfect in your eyes then the doors are awesome and did not add any delay to the project. If you are a heretic then the doors delayed things for probably a year, and cost huge amounts in engineer time, wages and effort. Something delayed the launch by over 2 years so if it wasn't partly the doors then what was it?
In all probability, the Model X simply wasn't a priority for the first couple of years, as they had more than enough demand for the Model S alone. The Model X project just floated along with minimal oversight. Then in 2014, the management determines that it would be good to start delivering the Model X in 2015, so more firm deadlines are set. Suddenly, they are in a hurry, and there are many different challenges remaining to be resolved. The doors, the 2nd row seats, the windscreen, etc - none have a production-ready design, and there's thousands and thousands of hours worth of design and testing remaining. So, they do their best to get to a production ready design as quickly as possible, but there remains a gap between what's possible to achieve and the stated goals, so there are further delays and they have to cut out the fat and focus on the essentials. The latter can also be called cutting corners.

And that's where we are today. With non-folding 2nd row seats, a charger with less functionality than intended, and almost no new features compared to the Model S (no autopilot 2.0, for instance). It's unfortunate that this is the result, but they will work on eliminating the weaknesses, and a year from now, everyone will have forgotten these issues.
 
I hear you @ecarfan - I have been on forums before. I just wasn't quite expecting the immediate over-defensive responses, so came back with some slightly more feisty comments.
I am glad you hear me, but given your stated experience with online forums am somewhat surprised that you did not anticipate how your choice of language would result in equally agitated responses. For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction, to quote someone much wiser than I.
I am not saying I agree with the links I posted - I was just making the point that the internet is a big world and I am NOT the only person that thinks the gullwing doors are a *questionable* feature, or that the release of information from Tesla is *not ideal*, or that the Tesla promises have not always been *100% reliable*.
On the internet one can always find at least a few people taking extreme positions, but that does not validate such positions.
(nice enough?)
Yes, and thank you for that. Now if we can maintain that tone, we can have a civil discussion. [emoji3]
 
In all probability, the Model X simply wasn't a priority for the first couple of years, as they had more than enough demand for the Model S alone. The Model X project just floated along with minimal oversight. Then in 2014, the management determines that it would be good to start delivering the Model X in 2015, so more firm deadlines are set. Suddenly, they are in a hurry, and there are many different challenges remaining to be resolved.

This. In early 2013 when the demand for the S spiked and they had production / quality issues, I prayed they would kick the X to the side and focus everything on the S. This was despite my Sig X reservation. And they did! Because they get it. If they had split their resources at the time, the chance of wholesale failure would have gone up dramatically.

More cool electric cars by different manufacturers will only expand the nascent market. I believe legacy car makers face a huge challenge, one perhaps as large as what Tesla appears to have overcome. A decade from now pundits will be lining about to discuss how obvious everything that happened was (carmakers going bust) and why did they sit on their hands like Kodak? This is not a problem for Tesla. I am still waiting for those cool cars to exist outside of press releases...

Tesla is cranking right now. When the gigafactory goes live doubters will start falling away in droves.

Tesla has not executed perfectly, but there were few scenarios in 2012 that led to their present existence so give credit where it is due.
 
Tesla is not a perfect company, nor does it try to be. Elon doesn't appear to be afraid of making mistakes, and when he does, he quickly tries to fix it. Tesla has shown the ability to quickly pivot and address issues/mistakes as necessary. For example, the onboard AC charger and the folding seats. It's precisely the fear of failing that has paralyzed the traditional automotive manufacturer into doing nothing for so long.

However, when it comes to the falcon doors, I'm reserving judgement until I have been using them for a few months. They do look cool, but I'm an understated type of guy and I don't like to drive around in a flashy car. My wife would be embarrassed to open those doors at the grocery store. I've been indifferent about the doors until now, but I do admit that they may have a potential to be huge. I like to compare them to the iPad. When Steve Jobs announced the iPad, no one got it and it was ridiculed by all the tech journalist. But once consumers started using it, everyone understood the impact and it was a huge success. So much so, that consumers don't feel the need to upgrade them every year and it has caused a drop in sales due to quickly reaching a saturation point.

The falcon doors may provide the functionality of a mini-van sliding door without the ugly, boxy look. No one today can predict if the falcon doors will be a hit or miss. We will have to wait until it's in consumer's hands before we know if it was a good or bad idea. I'm leaning towards it being a hit, but I'll be the first to point out when Tesla missteps. Not because I want them to fail, but because I want them to succeed.
 
@traxila - You know how it is in business. Much easier to copy than to truly innovate. Tesla have been taking all the risks - but the others will now be able to follow their path.

Imagine for a moment if one of the others are actually full-steam ahead making their version of the Tesla 3 series......someone the size of Toyota or Apple? Don't let's pretend it cannot be done as Tesla has already shown a startup can make electric cars.

They do look cool, but I'm an understated type of guy and I don't like to drive around in a flashy car. My wife would be embarrassed to open those doors at the grocery store.

I was afraid to comment on this myself for fear of being gunned down in a hail of forum bullets. But I was also wondering if I could train the kids to enter the car from the boot so that I wouldn't have those doors going up and down in public. Too much like wearing gold chains for my personal tastes......but will be fine in a couple of years once everyone has tired of seeing them.
 
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