Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[GBleck]

As long as they don't drive themselves out of a Tesla store in Michigan.

You may have hit on just the right loop hole. Is it a dealership if the car is just sitting in a location waiting to be summoned for a test drive? You can finalize the purchase from the vehicle. Any questions can be answered over the air communicating over the dash with a rep in California. Level 5 autonomy makes building a huge dealership setup maybe not a great long term plan. You can pull out of a Nordstrums display location fast and easy, same with a mall location. Really only need space for repair shops. If you put a robotic arm on a Tesla semi truck you can grab disabled cars and temp swap for a loaner although at that point I'm not sure how many people are buying vs transport as a service. Full level 5 autonomy is so massively disruptive to the transportation industry it is hard to figure out exactly where it will push the system.

 

[Krugerrand]

And if the big screen in the middle of the car doesn't bring in advertising and entertainment services revenue from the Tesla network I would be very surprised.

Ooh, I hadn't thought of that. I wonder if Elon would allow that, or if he has any particular disdain for advertisement, commercials and the like in that kind of a situation? Personally, I'm getting tired of having to continually turn off the various FB ads that keep showing up. Who knew I was interested in raccoon hair extensions? But regardless that metric has to clearly have an Adam 'it's a big, fat zero' Jonas.

 

[MitchJi]

And if the big screen in the middle of the car doesn't bring in advertising and entertainment services revenue from the Tesla network I would be very surprised.

I think that's a terrible idea!

I hope that Elon agrees!

 

[postpast]

I forgot how much of the price of a car was the cost of advertising, but I was shocked when I heard it. IIRC, it was between 10 and 20% of the price of the car. If Tesla doesn't have to do that, that's 10-20% free gross margin compared to the other car manufacturers.

Do you have any links? Those numbers don't seem correct.
GM US numbers for example; 3.4 billion in advertising and marketing in 2015 and 3.2 million cars sold. That equals an average of $1060 in advertising for each car. Average transaction price after sales incentives, was $35,767.

That would make the average advertising and marketing cost of 2.75% of the cost of the car.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

The tech conference next week will likely be very interesting. I am one of the only people who has maintained the view that Apple will invest in Tesla, and might already be a secret Tesla partner. It also wouldnt surprise me if Tesla is a secret "Apple incubator". Apple can't get into the automobile industry by itself even if Apple wants to, for anti-trust and other reasons. Also, Apple doesn't tend to buy its suppliers unless it has to, to give Apple leverage when negotiating long term contracts. Also, supporting suppliers and partners rather than buying them reduces the risk to Apple and helps act as a form of DIPLOMACY where Apple uses its cash and knowledge to support many if not every country.

If Trump approves a tax holiday and Apple is able to repatriate its offshore cash, I am very confident Apple will announce it is working with a number of new partners to accelerate the manufacturing sector in the USA.

I don't think people realize most of the parts that go into the iPhone are not produced in China, and even those that are support many jobs in other countries (including the USA).

Manufacturing, Research & Development, Supply Chain, Production, Assembly, Shipping and logistics, other.

Trump offers Apple tax cuts to bring production to the US - here's where they're made

(The breakdown on this website probably isn't the most reliable but gives you an idea)


Also, Apple requires a ton of batteries and has the cash, environmentally sound and heavily monitired supply chain, and tech knowledge to rapidly accelerate battery production.

Also, Apple's focus on making the iPhone 100% recyclable matches up perfectly with Tesla.

I have a feeling people on here should be paying close attention to Energizer and Maxwell.

 

[MartinAustin]

The first Model 3 full reveal will not happen, until production is either imminent, or already started, because they don't want to risk Osbourning S-X sales.

IMO it'll go just like the AP2 reveal. Elon will tweet "here comes the next part of the M3 reveal" and then they will show some feature that becomes immediately available on the Model S+X. Just like "Hardware 2." After all, it's their standard operating procedure to roll out new features and technology on the Model S+X platform, right?

Expect a redesign of the interior of the Model S+X dashboard over the next 4-6 months.

This process stops prospective Model S+X buyers from holding off on their orders, under the impression that the Model 3's newest feature is not available yet for them - but likely coming soon. If it is available immediately, Model S+X ordering continues apace.

This detail was missed out of schonelucht's otherwise excellent future timeline projection.

 

[Green Pete]

I think that's a terrible idea!

I hope that Elon agrees!

I dont imagine that it would be something that was there if you were riding in your own car. If someone was in your car as a taxi though?

The fact that the screen on the M3 is horizonal rather than like the S and X with verticle screens seems like its intended for media, advertising would be questionable. But in my mind, Netflix/Youtube/Hulu should all be interested in partnerships not just people like Apple and Google. And I get the feeling Tesla cars would make ideal hubs for connections to the Microsat 1-a and 1-b constellation network, putting in an extra piece of hardware in them could make Tesla the most reliable cell phone network in a few years when there's at least 1 car every square mile in the US (at average of 1,000,000 cars a year that would only take like 3 years)

There's a lot of major industry other than cars and oil that should be assessing how to partner/how big a threat Tesla is.

 

[Green Pete]

Ooh, I hadn't thought of that. I wonder if Elon would allow that, or if he has any particular disdain for advertisement, commercials and the like in that kind of a situation? Personally, I'm getting tired of having to continually turn off the various FB ads that keep showing up. Who knew I was interested in raccoon hair extensions? But regardless that metric has to clearly have an Adam 'it's a big, fat zero' Jonas.

Not as your own vehicle, but as a car on Tesla Network?

The tech conference next week will likely be very interesting. I am one of the only people who has maintained the view that Apple will invest in Tesla, and might already be a secret Tesla partner. It also wouldnt surprise me if Tesla is a secret "Apple incubator". Apple can't get into the automobile industry by itself even if Apple wants to, for anti-trust and other reasons. Also, Apple doesn't tend to buy its suppliers unless it has to, to give Apple leverage when negotiating long term contracts. Also, supporting suppliers and partners rather than buying them reduces the risk to Apple and helps act as a form of DIPLOMACY where Apple uses its cash and knowledge to support many if not every country.

If Trump approves a tax holiday and Apple is able to repatriate its offshore cash, I am very confident Apple will announce it is working with a number of new partners to accelerate the manufacturing sector in the USA.

I don't think people realize most of the parts that go into the iPhone are not produced in China, and even those that are support many jobs in other countries (including the USA).

Manufacturing, Research & Development, Supply Chain, Production, Assembly, Shipping and logistics, other.

Trump offers Apple tax cuts to bring production to the US - here's where they're made

(The breakdown on this website probably isn't the most reliable but gives you an idea)


Also, Apple requires a ton of batteries and has the cash, environmentally sound and heavily monitired supply chain, and tech knowledge to rapidly accelerate battery production.

Also, Apple's focus on making the iPhone 100% recyclable matches up perfectly with Tesla.

I have a feeling people on here should be paying close attention to Energizer and Maxwell.

Elon hasn't publicly said the best things about Apple. But he's very close with the Google people, they almost bought Tesla once, and they have the cash for it, and unlike Apple, half of it is already stateside.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Not as your own vehicle, but as a car on Tesla Network?


Elon hasn't publicly said the best things about Apple. But he's very close with the Google people, they almost bought Tesla once, and they have the cash for it, and unlike Apple, half of it is already stateside.

1) Google doesn't have infinite cash.
2) I think it's more likely Larry Paige makes a personal investment in Tesla.
3) Maybe an Apple, Google, Tesla partnership could happen?
4) Maybe this could act as an opportunity for Apple to form a peace treaty of sorts with Google in the interest of accelerating the deployment of EV's and Solar in the interest of the common good, as sign of good faith to shareholders and numerous countries?

Apple has $300 billion in cash. It's cash pile is growing by at least $30-50 billion annually. A $50 billion investment wouldn't be a lot for Apple, would create a minimum of 500,000 - 1 million jobs, including and would create incalculable value for shareholders.

Also, it's probably true that the Federal government spend $100-200 billion + annually on unnecessary projects.

Ex1) The F-35.
The $1.5 trillion plane that broke the Air Force

Ex2) Amtrak.
Amtrak Bill Continues History of Wasted Subsidies

Ex3) Subsidies for Oil companies. Also, subsidies for coal companies.

Top Three Ways That American Taxpayers Subsidize Dirty Coal Development

Ex4) The current nuclear weapons program. (Or is the US government preparing for a Martian invasion? )

Why Is the US Spending $1 Trillion on Nuclear Weapons?

 

[JRP3]

Take a look at the leather seats in the Model S. Sewing is not per se necessary, but was clearly done in the leather seats.

Are the leather seats sewn to the base, or attached in some other way? Because that's what I was talking about, the way the seat fabric/leather attaches to the seat base.

 

[Green Pete]

1) Google doesn't have infinite cash.
2) I think it's more likely Larry Paige makes a personal investment in Tesla.
3) Maybe an Apple, Google, Tesla partnership could happen?
4) Maybe this could act as an opportunity for Apple to form a peace treaty of sorts with Google in the interest of accelerating the deployment of EV's and Solar in the interest of the common good, as sign of good faith to shareholders and numerous countries?

Apple has $300 billion in cash. It's cash pile is growing by at least $30-50 billion annually. A $50 billion investment wouldn't be a lot for Apple, would create a minimum of 500,000 - 1 million jobs, and would create incalculable value for shareholders.

Apple, Microsoft, Google, Cisco, Oracle hold the most cash: Moody's report

Google actually has more in the US than Apple does ( 31 billion for google vs apples 15 billion). That being said, a true partnership rather than an investment, Apple (or more specifically apple energy), could afford to build a *sugar* ton of solar farms with battery storage overseas (not needing to repatriate a dime), and google and apple could afford to finance more than 50 gigafactories. That would accelerate a ton of positive moves and keeping everyone pretty happy.

I imagine all this would only happen after the Model 3 successfully launches.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Tesla settles the Norwegian P85D-case out of court, compensates buyers with 65,000 NOK or ~7,700 USD: Google Translate

The total payout is ~975,000 USD if everyone opts for the cash. (But the P85-owners can also choose between a ludicrous upgrade, ~9,500 USD in Tesla store credit and wheel packages in combinations with cash or store credit.)

 

[Alketi]

IMO, Apple and Google will each make a separate play for the Automated Transportation as a Service market that's due to arrive in the next couple of years.

Note that Michigan, just this past week, fully legalized driverless cars. The race is on, not to just disrupt the taxi industry, but Uber itself.

One other prediction --

Recall that in the Q3 CC Elon said his top three priorities were: Model 3, Autopilot, and the 100kWh pack.

I expect as soon as January we may see the base 100kWh pack released, which will serve as a high-margin, Q1 demand lever...

 

[Green Pete]

IMO, Apple and Google will each make a separate play for the Automated Transportation as a Service market that's due to arrive in the next couple of years.

Note that Michigan, just this past week, fully legalized driverless cars. The race is on, not to just disrupt the taxi industry, but Uber itself.

One other prediction --

Recall that in the Q3 CC Elon said his top three priorities were: Model 3, Autopilot, and the 100kWh pack.

I expect as soon as January we may see the base 100kWh pack released, which will serve as a high-margin, Q1 demand lever...

As I understand it was legalized for testing. Michigan has a love hate relationship with Uber as it is. Legalizing the taxi service is another bag of tricks (one that will happen, but as I understand it news it hasn't happened yet.)

 

[JRP3]

A $50 billion investment wouldn't be a lot for Apple, would create a minimum of 500,000 - 1 million jobs,

Not sure fully automated factories are going to create a lot of jobs for people.

 

[Green Pete]

Not sure fully automated factories are going to create a lot of jobs for people.

Or automated cars for that matter. Construction jobs maybe, and maybe car wash jobs too?

 

[AudubonB]

It's always fun to re-visit the "Here's What Apple Should Do With Its Cash" game. So here's a conjecture:

With which choice would Apple receive a greater ROI for that piddly $50bn? Remembering that Tesla's current market capitalization is $30.96bn as of last close, and some market premium would need to be paid -

• 30-49% equity stake in Tesla Motors
• some unknown - ¿also close to 50%, perhaps? - equity stake in Lucid or Faraday Future or perhaps both
• 49.99% equity stake, maybe even higher, in AudubonB Motors.

I know which I'd choose, but I've got some insider info.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Once the GigaFactory is running at full steam and producing cells at much lower cost compared to today, will Tesla try to sell Model S and X at the same price point as today to increase margins or will Tesla reduce the Model S and X price to support more aggressive growth rates and eat into other manufacturers market share even more quickly?
Thoughts?

 

[Green Pete]

It's always fun to re-visit the "Here's What Apple Should Do With Its Cash" game. So here's a conjecture:

With which choice would Apple receive a greater ROI for that piddly $50bn? Remembering that Tesla's current market capitalization is $30.96bn as of last close, and some market premium would need to be paid -

• 30-49% equity stake in Tesla Motors
• some unknown - ¿also close to 50%, perhaps? equity stake in Lucid or Faraday Future or perhaps both
• 49.99% equity stake, maybe even higher, in AudubonB Motors.

I know which I'd choose, but I've got some insider info.

As far as Tesla, I don't think the board or elon would go for equity in the company. I do think they would go for investment partnerships in solar/battery farms or factory building. Or even financing of homes taking big banks out of the equation. All of those have strong ROIs.

 

[Green Pete]

Once the GigaFactory is running at full steam and producing cells at much lower cost compared to today, will Tesla try to sell Model S and X at the same price point as today to increase margins or will Tesla reduce the Model S and X price to support more aggressive growth rates and eat into other manufacturers market share even more quickly?
Thoughts?

Not a battery expert but my understanding is that the 2170s arent designed for rapid discharge (over the top acceleration), so I would think they would be better for Powerwall/Powerpack/Model 3s, so maybe no chances in COGs for the S and X.

IF the COGs for S and X come down I would think that he would drop the price to increase volume. If production constraints are gone selling at volume does more to accelerating a green future than packing on more margin.