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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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I don't know how much one should read into dark pool numbers - but the service at squeezemetrics (I have no affiliation - just stumbled across it via an article on seeking alpha) has the DPI ratio (buyers vs sellers) at below 40% every trading day this week.

If the numbers are to be believed, the traders trading in the dark pool have been net sellers.

Would love input from someone more knowledgeable in this field.
 
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I just thought I would leave this here. Graph of cell phone market share over time.

comscore-us-smartphones.png
 
So the election was all about carbon. Of course Russia would benefit from an increase in demand for oil, and that's why the CIA thinks it played favorites in leaking stuff in the last election buildup. See: Secret CIA assessment says Russia was trying to help Trump win White House

Edit: I did not have time to think about Russia's motives. Putin probably just wanted to get as much noise added to the election as possible but my overall interpretation of the meaning of the election stands.
I just couldn't stand to feed another dollar to the oil people. Just yesterday I bought a used 2013 Leaf with 12 bars and only 25k miles for $7400. This is so we can sell my wife's Prius and use the Leaf until her Model 3 arrives.
 
I just thought I would leave this here. Graph of cell phone market share over time.

comscore-us-smartphones.png
Thanks for the graph. And while Android has the lion share of volume, Apple has 90% of the profit. Can't wait until we see a very similar chart with Tesla and the old timers. Who will survive as a bottom feeder? Won't be Tesla.
 
Is there any reason for anyone to really not feel confident in a mid 2017 start date? Or is it just because previous product delays?


IMO, they are totally basing it on the past, and you know what they say on Wall Street fifty times a second: "Past Performance does not predict Yadayadyada". I think EM and TSLA are very focused on producing and they are going to be very successful. You would think Wall Street would pay attention to some of the garbage they are constantly spewing but I forget always it is always about their book.
 
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I don't know how much one should read into dark pool numbers - but the service at squeezemetrics (I have no affiliation - just stumbled across it via an article on seeking alpha) has the DPI ratio (buyers vs sellers) at below 40% every trading day this week.

If the numbers are to be believed, the traders trading in the dark pool have been net sellers.

Would love input from someone more knowledgeable in this field.
I saw that article on SA. It is a shill article touting a questionable metric pulled out of thin air, solely for the purpose of selling monthly subscriptions to that useless metric.

If you trade through an account on numerous discount brokerage firms like E*TRADE, all the trades from that brokerage firm get listed as institutional trade, which is meaningless. The only way to find out true institutional ownership is through 13F filings and/or 10q/k.
 
I saw that article on SA. It is a shill article touting a questionable metric pulled out of thin air, solely for the purpose of selling monthly subscriptions to that useless metric.

If you trade through an account on numerous discount brokerage firms like E*TRADE, all the trades from that brokerage firm get listed as institutional trade, which is meaningless. The only way to find out true institutional ownership is through 13F filings and/or 10q/k.

Why is it useless?
Trades from a discount brokerage wouldnt show up in the dark pool numbers...
 
I just thought I would leave this here. Graph of cell phone market share over time.

comscore-us-smartphones.png
Interesting issue: where operating systems gain advantage with scale and a leadership that understands and executes to their advantage, a few systems can become highly dominant. More interesting against a backdrop of American competition lobbying to get out of EV market and likely elimination or reduction of CAFE standards, Tesla could be in an incredibly strong position by 2020. If they're not banned, due to tailpipe exhaust being cleaner then fresh air!
 
Are you missing the fact that 30,000 M3 deliveries in a quarter more than DOUBLES Tesla's current output? So there are at least as many units to amortize the non-tooling capital investment for M3 as they currently have for amortizing the entire Fremont factory depreciation. Even with you quadrupling my estimate it is still less than a 5 point impact on GM for the M3. How much if the 75% cost of sales of S and X do you attribute to the depreciation of Tesla's manufacturing capex investment to date? 1%? 5%?

I stand by my original statement that if Tesla delivers 30K M3's in 2017 the WS analysts will have to make significant increases to their revenue projections and stock price targets. And while the GM on M3 will be less than the then current GM run rate on S/X, it is not going to be negative or zero and will not support the "Tesla loses money on every car" bear thesis.
My current model gives about 10k in labor and D&A in COGS for Model S, or a little over 10% of the ASP. Again, part of this is because the Fremont plant and GF are not utilized to their full potential. But so would be the case for the additional equipment and plant expansion for Model 3. I'm not saying it would also be 10k for Model 3, I think it would be much lower. But if they are buying capacity for 300k a year or 75k a quarter but only produced half of that capacity in 2017, labor + D&A could take up more than 10%, maybe 15% or around 6k per car. If that is the case, it is quite significant.
 
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Elon said that M3 production in 2017 would be at Alien Dreadnaught level 0.5. So he is planning for 50K-100K units using improvements on the current practices at Fremont, not on a fully automated production line.

He also said that AD 1.0 would follow about a year later. So he is envisioning the need for much more automation to get to a 500K/year run rate exiting 2018.

EDIT:

I believe you have me confused with someone else.
Sorry I did mistake you for someone else. My apologies.
 
Interesting issue: where operating systems gain advantage with scale and a leadership that understands and executes to their advantage, a few systems can become highly dominant. More interesting against a backdrop of American competition lobbying to get out of EV market and likely elimination or reduction of CAFE standards, Tesla could be in an incredibly strong position by 2020. If they're not banned, due to tailpipe exhaust being cleaner then fresh air!
No fears. Under this cabinet the US will be on the forefront of environmental energy production. They will require all vehicles to be powered by Clean Coal only.
 
How do you know? That entire metric is based on institutional buy/sell. That would have been a useful metric before 1997, not now.
I don't follow your logic.
Why is it useless to know whether institutions are buying/selling outside the exchanges?
People spent many pages discussing whether institutions were buying/selling during the SCTY/TSLA merger announcement.
 
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I don't follow your logic.
Why is it useless to know whether institutions are buying/selling outside the exchanges?
People spent many pages discussing whether institutions were buying/selling during the SCTY/TSLA merger announcement.
It is because what is perceived as institutional buying/selling isn't so. I mentioned earlier that your trades get aggregated with other trades within a discount brokerage and get reported as institutional buy/sell. So, if you/me make a trade on E*TRADE, is it an institutional trade? What sort of institution am I or you?

The basic premise is that institutional investors are much smarter, have access to better research as compared to us retail investors. With the advent of discount brokerage firms since late 1990s, aggregate retail investor actions are misreported as institutional trades. In other words, collective irrational madness could be mistaken for institutional smartness.
 
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It is because what is perceived as institutional buying/selling isn't so. I mentioned earlier that your trades get aggregated with other trades within a discount brokerage and get reported as institutional buy/sell. So, if you/me make a trade on E*TRADE, is it an institutional trade? What sort of institution am I or you?
The type of trade you are referring to wouldn't show up in dark pool numbers.

I'm getting a vibe that you do not know the definition of a dark pool?
 
When I used discount online brokerages, I saw some of my more round-number trades directly listed on the level II bid-ask exchange quotes, sometimes by themselves, and sometimes grouped with other buys and sells. The more common my request and/or unround the numbers, the more likely my bid or ask got grouped with others, and the less common my request or the more round numbers, the more likely my bid or ask showed up in the on-market exchanges directly, at least for a tick or two. Sometimes my trades showed up on tape by themselves, and sometimes they showed up aggregated, and sometimes they didn't show up at all. If I entered a trade for 1,000 shares, those often showed up on tape by themselves, but not always. Fractional sub-100 share trades were most commonly aggregated in various ways, probably in-brokerage sometimes.

In essence, the online brokerages seem to do whatever they want with it, as long as they fit my order parameters. Other than that, I guess I'd have to buy a port on the NASDAQ computer routers and set up a clearing house account and any other requirements and trade directly (I haven't done that yet, so I don't know if there's any other steps, besides co-locating a computer on their floor and setting up programs to talk NASDAQ trade protocols, which means quite a bit of programming).

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Ohhhhhh ... I missed some of the context of the question. I only read two or three wikipedia-like blurbs about dark pool trading, and quite frankly, it was pretty descriptive and easy to understand: I think JBRR is right, and a quick google search would answer that for you. The Investopedia vid is pretty straightforward. None of what I described above was dark-pool. If after reading the below references, someone then experienced what I was discussing in the above two paragraphs and still thought that that was dark-pool traded, then I suggest that that person doesn't have the brain power to understand what is going on and ought to take that into consideration during their planning assessments.

Google
An Introduction To Dark Pools
Dark liquidity - Wikipedia
Dark Pool Liquidity
10 Things People Don't Get About Dark Pools

The government sent a blurb opinion; I don't know the effect: SEC.gov | Shedding Light on Dark Pools
 
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Here is the direct quote from the May 4, 2016 earnings call:



It depends on whether you interpret run rate as the actual production in 2018 or 4 times the production in the 4th quarter of 2018. I chose the latter interpretation.
Keeping in mind these are estimates and goals, I not only took the same interpretation, but interpreted re-references to that in many other interviews, calls, videos and statements from Elon about it as consistent with the latter interpretation. I think they all left room for the former to happen if they are lucky, and I am excited to see what actually happens.
 
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