Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[bonaire]

Well last quarter they estimated 4,395 total US deliveries for the first two months (April and May.) This quarter the total is 7,875. Do whatever you want with that. I'm going to check the wayback machine to find out if the change their numbers after they get Tesla's delivery reports.

EDIT: So they do change numbers after the fact for the Model X. I don't see changes for the Model S. That makes sense since unless they are way off for the Model S there is no way to determine US deliveries from a global delivery count. Either way they had low Model S counts the entire time for Q1 and Q2 and now they don't. So it seems they are in the ballpark which makes me optimistic about finally having a good quarter, at least for production and deliveries.

In terms of InsideEVs numbers. In terms of Inside EVs #s versus rest of world. Looks like this. the MX is now delivering in Europe and Asia. But heavily in the USA. If MX is 75% N. America and MS is 55% N. America, then you have to factor in these ratios in estimating models of total world sales. Keep in mind too that the reservation counts for MX that were tracked in 2015 and prior showed a 4:1 to 4.5:1 ratio of USA to Europe reservation rates.

MS MX PCTs of N. America vs. World
Q1 51.4 100.0
Q2 58.5 98.2

 

[brian45011]

Didn't know this existed, thanks!

The Tesla Europe Registration Stats wiki is a mother lode of useful information. Kudos to the members who maintain it!

 

[Drax7]

At around $5,000 to $6,000 per share.. Sure, why not ? ;-)

Edit : changed . to , in order not to scare my fellow posters from the USA

The price action is awful, have to respect it or else risk serious damage.

liquidity issues will hover until vehicle revenues overwhelm them.
the first week of october is when third qtr numbers are released,
do you think i risk missing a trillion dollar valuation before that?

 

[tinm]

At around $5,000 to $6,000 per share.. Sure, why not ? ;-)

Edit : changed . to , in order not to scare my fellow posters from the USA

$5000 to $6000 a share would be . . . acceptable. However, I don't like how complex all this Spacex-Tesla-Solarcity stuff is getting. I like things simple. Especially before a successful Model 3 rollout.

 

[TMSE]

Just wanted to share my thoughts. Please poke any holes in my argument.

In the Q2 earnings call, one of the analysts asked when Tesla will be non-GAAP profitable. It looks like many institutional investors are looking for that significant milestone before they jump in.

At the current production and delivery rate, Tesla will deliver anywhere from 21K to 25K for Q3. I think 23K is very likely.

Tesla has about 22 to 24% gross margin. When you check the income statements for Q1 and Q2, Tesla lost about $75m to $150m non-GAAP each quarter.

At 21k cars delivered for Q3, which is an extra 6000 cars delivered from Q1or Q2 levels, would contribute about $120m to $150m additional gross margin contribution which should wipe out all the losses and even show some profit, all non-GAAP of course. R&D and SG&A expenses are rising at much lower rate, you can as well ignore quarter to quarter difference.

Tesla could be GAAP profitable if it delivers over 25K.

 

[Gerardf]

the first week of october is when third qtr numbers are released,
do you think i risk missing a trillion dollar valuation before that?

I would not risk it if I were you.
As I am a nice guy, and you are one of our TMC buddies, I offer you to buy 100 of my shares for just 1K each this October.


P.S. I was in the smallest Tesla shop / service centre in NL yesterday, where I saw my first Model-X.
They told me they now just had their permanent demo -X . (Was VIN 140xx). Guess if they have one, all the shops in NL now have them.

 

[joseph7h]

No buyers? Don't see any buyers at mid of the day.

 

[Lessmog]

Buyers of tsla you mean? But scty offers a 10-15% discount now. (Not many buyers there either ... )

 

[Gerardf]

Link via nasdaq.com:

RSI Alert: Tesla Motors Now Oversold

 

[joseph7h]

No buyers? Don't see any buyers at mid of the day.

The drop may have more to do with the deterioration of scty financials rather than SpaceX explosion, IMO.

 

[esk8mw]

Just wanted to share my thoughts. Please poke any holes in my argument.

In the Q2 earnings call, one of the analysts asked when Tesla will be non-GAAP profitable. It looks like many institutional investors are looking for that significant milestone before they jump in.

At the current production and delivery rate, Tesla will deliver anywhere from 21K to 25K for Q3. I think 23K is very likely.

Tesla has about 22 to 24% gross margin. When you check the income statements for Q1 and Q2, Tesla lost about $75m to $150m non-GAAP each quarter.

At 21k cars delivered for Q3, which is an extra 6000 cars delivered from Q1or Q2 levels, would contribute about $120m to $150m additional gross margin contribution which should wipe out all the losses and even show some profit, all non-GAAP of course. R&D and SG&A expenses are rising at much lower rate, you can as well ignore quarter to quarter difference.

Tesla could be GAAP profitable if it delivers over 25K.

In my (hilariously wrong) spreadsheet, breakeven is at 24,432 cars for Q3.

 

[Ulmo]

Am I correct in thinking?: the only material thing that would allow SCTY stock to fall below the .11 ratio to TSLA is a belief that the institutional investors who we think already are pro-SCTY merger and enough votes to make it go through would back out?

So, they're concerned about the SCTY debt load. A lot of it comes from new installs, and a lot from old installs that are paying (whatever they're called -- "leases", but related to energy use payments shifted from old utilities to the panel owner (SCTY)). No new debt funding is both about new installs and old installs. If SCTY stopped doing any more loans to panel users, and went 100% cash in hand (or customer financed), what would SCTY's debt load look like then with respect to its income from those leases, given a conservative regulatory outlook?

Do traders have a better idea of where the votes for the merger are headed than I do?

I feel like traders are in foggy NYC weather and think that Sun as an energy form is a scam. What they don't know is that some people in this country get sun burns and don't think it's a scam at all, and Elon already gave large shareholders some vacation trips to sunny locations to really get a clear feeling for this, or on the other hand, those same shareholders have given talks about their decision making process and some thresholds changed color today.

Edit:

I found this Bloomberg article kind of asking the same questions I am:

Is SolarCity Strapped to a Rocket, Tesla, Both or Neither?

 

[ev-enthusiast]

If we get a bounce from here the chart would look amazing.

 

[Yggdrasill]

A bit off topic, but I thought this thread needed a happy Tesla story from today:

World's largest charging station opened today, with 20 supercharger stalls, four 50 kW CCS/CHAdeMO/AC chargers and four 22 kW AC charging points. Google Oversetter

 

[Lessmog]

Am I correct in thinking?: the only material thing that would allow SCTY stock to fall below the .11 ratio to TSLA is a belief that the institutional investors who we think already are pro-SCTY merger and enough votes to make it go through would back out.

So, they're concerned about the SCTY debt load. A lot of it comes from new installs, and a lot from old installs that are paying. No new debt funding is both about new installs and old installs. If SCTY stopped doing any more loans to panel users, and went 100% cash in hand (or customer financed), what would SCTY's debt load look like then with respect to its income from those leases, given a conservative regulatory outlook?

I can't tell if you are right or wrong, but that's about my reading too. Apart from any merger costs.

 

[TMSE]

Maybe this will help: Tesla Europe Registration Stats

Great info! Thanks!

Assuming that InsideEV estimates are close to accurate, Tesla delivered 8K cars so far in Q3. In June they delivered around 6K in the US. Similarly, around 7 K deliveries could happen in September. So, US deliveries in Q3 could be around 15K.

Per the doc in the link above, the US and Rest of the world split was 60:40 for Q2. If we assume the same ratio for Q3, deliveries should be 25K! Am I missing something?

 

[TMSE]

In my (hilariously wrong) spreadsheet, breakeven is at 24,432 cars for Q3.

Is it beak even for non-GAAP? Could you please share?

Per my very crude model, non-GAAP break even happens around 21K and GAAP break even above 25K for Q3.

 

[Bgarret]

I would put a note of caution out - there is a good amount of uncertainty (which the market hates), around: Tesla, SCTY, SpaceX, debt issuance, mergers, dilution, capital spending, execution risk, etc.

Layer that with market uncertainty based on - 6 quarters of diminishing profitability for S&P 500 companies, P/E ratios that according to Schiller CAP 10 or Goldman's David Kostin are at historic highs, low global growth, low bond yields (over 1/3 of all sovereign debt is being priced with negative interest rates), increased global risk (based on US elections, Brexit questions, Chinese debt/economy) and poor market "seasonality" entering September.....there is reason for caution.

I don't know where the US and global market goes and there are many good arguments for alternative universes where the market marches unrelentingly up, but there is a healthy diet of uncertainty out there and in the event of a market correction like the beginning of this year or August/September of last year, TSLA will not likely run counter to the macro, especially with its own questions in advance of M3 rollout.

For the more seasoned amongst us:

 

[austinEV]

Holy cow, SCTY/TSLA=18.42/201.6=0.091 when it should be 0.11 right? (0.11-0.091)/0.091=0.21 so a 21% discount arbitrage? That might make me actually buy SCTY. Is my math right?

 

[ggr]

This is GOOD news. This launch accident isn't related to engine failure or structural failure.

Well, probably not, but possibly related to the structural failure from late last year. If the helium container again ruptured or leaked, and caused overpressure in the LOX in the 2nd stage, spilling LOX everywhere is almost certain to cause fire and explosion.