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May 2016 was 156 Model S. February 2016 was 113 Model S.
338 combined Model S/X in Norway is pretty good.
(Doesn't seem to be slowing down, either. 9 Model X and 6 Model S today. 15 per day for 30 days means 450 for September.)
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I'm not knocking InsideEVs - I'm actually taking them more seriously these days - I'm just trying to estimate that non-US factor. I don't really mean their numbers are "off." The point was that the non-US deliveries were high in Q4 2015 and probably at their lowest point in early 2016, and the InsideEV "off" percentage reflects that. The question is now how much have intl deliveries bounced back in 2016 such that the InsideEVs numbers start getting further from actual deliveries? To me, this is the crucial question for estimating Q3 deliveries.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Another factor is tesla had over 5k cars "in transit" to customers at the end of Q2.
Assuming most of these cars were on boats to international markets, then non-U.S. Deliveries will see some boost as a result for Q3.
I doubt tesla will have 5k cars in transit again in Q3. Tesla explained during their Q2 deliveries announcement that production ramped in June and it was too late to get these cars delivered by end of Q2.
I think Tesla has already put nearly all cars on boats already for overseas deliveries. I'd expect cars being produced now at Fremont are mainly for US delivery.
I suggest anyone on here who is complaining about Elon or about the merger take a deep breadth and step away from their computer. Seriously. What is wrong with you people?
Side note : All of the information being reported on today was known yesterday morning. Also, the filing stated that the independent firm evaluating SolarCity OVERSTATED SolarCity's debt by around $400 million. The filing also says that both parties, after becoming aware of the double counting error, discussed the matter, and decided it wouldn't cause either party to change their offer. The aggreement was reached long after the error was discovered and addressed, as very clearly stated in the filing. This is a good thing for Tesla!
The amount of BS being published today is ludicrous.
Side note : All of the information being reported on today was known yesterday morning. Also, the filing stated that the independent firm evaluating SolarCity OVERSTATED SolarCity's debt by around $400 million. The filing also says that both parties, after becoming aware of the double counting error, discussed the matter, and decided it wouldn't cause either party to change their offer. The aggreement was reached long after the error was discovered and addressed, as very clearly stated in the filing. This is a good thing for Tesla!
The amount of BS being published today is ludicrous.
Do you expect Tesla to be able to deliver most of the last couple of weeks of production almost straight away? I would have thought that even a lot of US deliveries would not make it it in time, let alone some international vehicles that will still be in transit (I know that Tesla tries to time most of these to arrive before the end of the quarter, but we can still expect to find that some are in transit). If production has ramped to almost 2200/week by the end of the quarter, then we should expect the number of in-transit cars to be generally higher in future than in the past, so a steady number in the vicinity of 5000 undelivered cars seems reasonable to me, and probably not much lower than around 4000.
elonmusk
Loss of Falcon vehicle today during propellant fill operation. Originated around upper stage oxygen tank. Cause still unknown. More soon.
9/1/16, 1:07 PM
Loss of Falcon vehicle today during propellant fill operation. Originated around upper stage oxygen tank. Cause still unknown. More soon.
9/1/16, 1:07 PM
Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
September will be better than August, but US is currently doing heavy lifting, more than 50%, as US is the only market where you get two year lease, and you get heavier discounts on demo cars than Canada for example.
Where that leaves us? I'd say 25K is optimistic, but I also think we're almost assured of more than 20K now. How much more?
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
This is GOOD news. This launch accident isn't related to engine failure or structural failure.
Why not? When they were around 1000/week production, they pretty consistently had more than 2000 in transit at the end of quarter. Now assuming they are at 2000/week or even more, without doubling service center/stores, why wouldn't there be more than 4000 in transit at the end of quarter?
I could dismiss the repeated failures to execute, but now the the solar-city deal
aggravates the financing situation. Nonetheless, sustained sales above 24,000 units will offset most liquidity issues.
Moreover, If the firm will be worth a trillion as elon said, do you think i will still get a chance ?
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Yes, I believe tesla will still optimize end of quarter deliveries such that the last cars off the production line are cars being picked up at the Fremont factory (zero transit time to customer).
I think your other point about higher production translating into more cars in transit is a valid point. It wouldn't surprise me if there are are a few thousand cars in transit at end of Q3. But, I certainly think tesla is going to try hard to maximize deliveries in Q3
GBleck
Member
As long as it's not a failed strut for the oxygen pressurization composite wrapped tank full of helium I am not worried. Pad looks fairly intact on the new photos.
Sold my position on armh and purchased a split of solar city and tesla with twice as much solar city. SC is low and I expect it to go through but cash flow could make for some risk so why not split the difference.
Sold my position on armh and purchased a split of solar city and tesla with twice as much solar city. SC is low and I expect it to go through but cash flow could make for some risk so why not split the difference.
Gerardf
Active Member
At around $5,000 to $6,000 per share.. Sure, why not ? ;-)
Edit : changed . to , in order not to scare my fellow posters from the USA
jhm
Well-Known Member
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