Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[joseph7h]

WSJ: SolarCity was near collapsing so EM/Tesla has to buy it
(SCTY), Tesla Motors, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) - WSJ: Musk Faces 'Financial Crunches' At Tesla, SolarCity

 

[esk8mw]

Those who use the world capitulation, I don't think that you know what it means. If we would go below 100 I would say capitulation.

An increasing volume spike lower followed by a quick recovery is pretty much the exact definition of short-term capitulation.

Weak longs panic sold and were replaced by new longs. This stock is held heavily by insiders and institutions. It's not going under 100 unless the company goes BK.

 

[TMSE]

Insideevs US August numbers are rolling in:

Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard

Tesla numbers look great to me. 3125 S and 1850 X in August is fantastic!

 

[Ulmo]

Yes, we all know about these.
But now we are getting closer to the vote and the merger itself, I feel Tesla could do a somewhat better job on sharing more concrete and detailed plans and financial analysis in order to 'sell' this to the shareholders. It is a big investment for them after all.

Unless they feel like they don't have to because they predicted the vote outcome by polling the institutional investors and figured out that they think it's going to pass.

So, is this information in itself? Information that they're pretty certain this is going to go forward?

 

[austinEV]

Those who use the world capitulation, I don't think that you know what it means. If we would go below 100 I would say capitulation.

It's a question of velocity. Previous days have been more orderly marching down. This mornings move was full on panicky freefall. We say it smells like capitulation because that had to have been fueled at least partially by people panicking and selling into a falling market after having sat through the previous bad week. Capitulation doesn't have to come at a place in the chart it comes in a place in time.

 

[uselesslogin]

So, what do we make of 3,125 S and 1,850 X? Are these good numbers? To be honest, I'm still not sure how to handicap the InsideEV estimates to reality.

Well last quarter they estimated 4,395 total US deliveries for the first two months (April and May.) This quarter the total is 7,875. Do whatever you want with that. I'm going to check the wayback machine to find out if the change their numbers after they get Tesla's delivery reports.

EDIT: So they do change numbers after the fact for the Model X. I don't see changes for the Model S. That makes sense since unless they are way off for the Model S there is no way to determine US deliveries from a global delivery count. Either way they had low Model S counts the entire time for Q1 and Q2 and now they don't. So it seems they are in the ballpark which makes me optimistic about finally having a good quarter, at least for production and deliveries.

 

[Quesder]

These numbers look very good to me, esp for Model S, which is up 80% y/y for July/August compared to 2015 and up 164% over Q2 (April/May).

Correct me if you think I am wrong. I assume Sep will do at least as good as Aug. So double the Aug number and add the July number, we get an estimate for Q3 in US: 12850.
Then again I assume US is 50% of the whole world (I heard China was not doing bad). Then we get an estimate 25700 for Q3.
Unless Aug is heavily added up by the "5000 on transit".

 

[Curt Renz]

I said all along Musk needs to resign from one of the companies. He will be dealing with this latest incident for a long time. A loss of vehicle and payload during a static fire? Yikes.

I don't understand why the payload had been installed for a mere test firing.

I do agree that Musk should choose one company to serve as both CEO and board chairman, and reduce his responsibilities to the other by merely serving as an ordinary member of the board.

 

[anon]

Was this Falcon 9 in the middle of being static fired? Reason I ask is that it's unclear to me from media reports whether the rocket engines were on or off.

Thx

I saw at nasaspaceflight.com that the explosion occurred about 3 minutes before engine ignition, just around the time when they normally finish loading liquid oxygen.

 

[dandurston]

I'm going to check the wayback machine to find out if the change their numbers after they get Tesla's delivery reports.

They do update the numbers when hard data comes out (since the goal is to report sales, not to have a guessing contest) but they're very upfront about it. Their guesses are historically very good, but we still don't know a lot of info like worldwide sales. I wish InsideEVs would estimate this too.

 

[EinSV]

So, what do we make of 3,125 S and 1,850 X? Are these good numbers? To be honest, I'm still not sure how to handicap the InsideEV estimates to reality.

I never know what to do with these numbers due in part to the way Tesla rolls out its deliveries, but the increases in S sales look impressive to me. Will have to see if the trend continues in September. Factoring in the US/overseas shipping cycles makes any definitive conclusions difficult.

 

[dandurston]

Then again I assume US is 50% of the whole world (I heard China was not doing bad). Then we get an estimate 25700 for Q3.

This is a huge assumption. US sales as a percentage of the total varies widely from ~40% to 80%.

 

[W84M3]

This is a huge assumption. US sales as a percentage of the total varies widely from ~40% to 80%.

Indeed but we can deduct EU sales fairly easily in the next few days.. Early reports also claim increase vs Q2

 

[dirtyofries]

I don't understand why the payload had been installed for a mere test firing.

I do agree that Musk should choose one company to serve as both CEO and board chairman, and reduce his responsibilities to the other by merely serving as an ordinary member of the board.

It's extremely expensive and time intensive to move a rocket from horizontal to launch position. It's very typical to install the payload for a test fire for expediency and cost savings.

 

[bonaire]

They do update the numbers when hard data comes out (since the goal is to report sales, not to have a guessing contest) but they're very upfront about it. Their guesses are historically very good, but we still don't know a lot of info like worldwide sales. I wish InsideEVs would estimate this too.

We have Norway numbers now. (338=170S+168X for August - 2015 was 220S) Many X were Signatures (early reservations)
Follow ev-sales.blogspot.com for world sales, maybe except China and Japan which seem hard to get.

 

[hockeythug]

I don't understand why the payload had been installed for a mere test firing.

I do agree that Musk should choose one company to serve as both CEO and board chairman, and reduce his responsibilities to the other by merely serving as an ordinary member of the board.

They test each first stage at McGregor first without the payload but they do a static fire(what they were doing this morning) after the second stage is intergraded shortly before launch just to make sure everything is working together.

 

[aznt1217]

They test each first stage at McGregor first without the payload but they do a static fire(what they were doing this morning) after the second stage is intergraded shortly before launch just to make sure everything is working together.

Based on initial reports, it seems like nothing was wrong with the rocket itself but the landing pad. That sucks. Anyway, why it's tied to TSLA's short term price movement I have no idea. I doubt it's the SpaceX part, I think it's that WSJ piece that is making shorts salivate.

 

[Fallenone]

So far August numbers are looking good to me. July was disappointing though. With all the promotions Tesla is running, I think they can reach 21k or more deliveries for the whole quarter.

 

[Quesder]

We have Norway numbers now. (338=170S+168X for August - 2015 was 220S) Many X were Signatures (early reservations)
Follow ev-sales.blogspot.com for world sales, maybe except China and Japan which seem hard to get.

These numbers looks good but we don't see SP get pushed up. The market just doesn't know or just doesn't care?

 

[uselesslogin]

So the numbers make me hopeful that production is running well. They called me as a Model 3 reservation holder which I assume could be an end-of-quarter push. I should have asked him if he thought I could still get the car in September.