This discussion has certainly scared the shorts away. (I hear a lot of snoring in the background.)
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Of course you can sell a book that you rented. Wouldn't be the first to do so.
And when that happens, what you hold in your Fidelity account are not shares, but IOUs on Tesla shares. The shares themselves are now owned by someone else.
You seem to want to add up all columns on all accounts for 'number of shares held' (even if that column is a bit of a white lie when it comes to your account). If you do so, just must also add in the statement on the short sellers account which will hold -1 shares of TSLA. To calculate the total we add : 1 in your column plus 1 in the column of the guy who bought your ex-shares from the short seller plus -1 in the column of the short seller themselves. Gives 1 share in existance.
3Victoria
Active Member
SebastianR
Active Member
THIS - I mean come on, it is not so hard to see:
Step 1: Introduce Model 3 & make people want the car
Step 2: Tell people the fastest way to own a Model 3 is to buy a Model S/X (i.e. start to convert interested people into owners)
Step 3: Introduce a more affordable Model S/X (the 60 version, i.e. reach further into the line to convert to owners)
Step 4: Introduce short lease to "bridge" lease of 2 years - remember those BMW ads? Tesla could now say: "Waiting for the Model 3? That sucks - but hey you could buy an overpriced wannabe electric car from BMW - OR - you could just lease a superb Model S in the meantime!"
Step 5: - We don't know yet. But I expect aggressively priced lending / leasing of CPO cars at some point.
In a nutshell: Tesla will aim at providing options to people that are waiting for the Model 3. As we get closer these options will get more short-term in nature.
To play 'devil's advocate'. Is TM pulling all these demand levers as we are at a point where daily production exceeds daily new confirmed/going to production daily orders?
Yes, there is a back log, especially internationally, but is Maoing finally correct that they are at a tipping point where TM is demand constrained ?
I am asking the question to you as I am finally at a point where I see that 2000+ a week production exceeds 2000+ a week of new confirmed weekly orders that are not being delayed waiting for AP 2.0 or 100+ battery
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May be.
But let me ask another question. Do you think that 2000/week of new confirmed orders do represent demand, but sales of the non-titled demo cars to the customers who did not place an order do not?
To put things in perspective, with 260 stores around the globe, if on average each store sells just one demo car per week, we have 260 cars/week sold to the customers that did not put an order in. Make it two cars per week, and there is total of 520 cars per week that are sold to the customers who did not put an order.
I do not know the answer to your question, but I think that the way it is put has potential to have rather large impact on the answer.
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Vlad, my answer is B.
17mm shares total held by retail investors? Heck, I own 14mm shares myself
Yes, the correct answer is (B), even though you might have used inaccurate reasoning (although I can't be 100% sure...)
Absolutely, it can make a huge impact. Inventory is the wild card both ways. We don't know how much of the cars that are currently being build are going to inventory and we don't know how many cars in inventory are sold to customers any given quarter. I don't have my spreadsheet with me so I'd need to look up the actual numbers but I believe I estimated maximum inventory at the start of this quarter to be 6000 cars (lifetime # cars produced minus # cars reported delivered minus 5100 cars in transit).
Tesla has stepped up it's inventory game quite heavily this quarter, so I think we are certainly going to see some of that inventory being sold off. For example they split out inventory from CPO on their website, they started using CPOs for loaner cars instead of inventory for loaners, they put a lot more inventory online instead of having the customer ask for it specifically in the store etc.
I am thinking of trying to track inventory on offer on line to get a feel how much of it gets sold every single day. The problem is that Tesla often pulls a car online to put it pack a few days/weeks later so you don't really know if a car disappearing from the list is a sale.
Hogfighter
Professional Lurker
We've gotten so accustomed over the years to think that the norm is to wait 2-4 months for your car. This isn't how 99% of the population purchase a car, nor is it how they want to.
Slowly, Tesla will sell more and more cars from existing inventory. That should be embraced, not scorned. Of course there are those that will fret over the 'D' word, but is really much ado about nothing.
Slowly, Tesla will sell more and more cars from existing inventory. That should be embraced, not scorned. Of course there are those that will fret over the 'D' word, but is really much ado about nothing.
One issue with inventory : up until now Tesla mainly used fully equipped P90D's for inventory. A lot of demand however is for cheaper cars so they may be comparatively a little harder to move. Post refresh you see the inventory on offer is a lot more representative of what people in general order : a mix of 60ies and 75's with only an occasional 90.
I think also that not all demo cars are listed on the Website, so there is likely that some demo cars are sold without being ever listed there. It will be very hard to get an overall count with reasonable accuracy.
9.69 kW solar power system with one powerwall module and turnkey installation costs 40k before tax credit.
My new solar and Powerwall installation
My new solar and Powerwall installation
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
I don't currently see Delivery window for MX on the Tesla site.
MS still says "late September"
Can anyone currently see MX delivery est on the U.S. Site?
MS still says "late September"
Can anyone currently see MX delivery est on the U.S. Site?
Yes, you need to click red "NEXT" button, and then click drop down menu under the "Delivery Preference" heading to see the earliest estimated delivery of late September.
To clarify: That was the cost of that 1 project and the author admits he did not seek to reduce costs on the installation - I was left with the impression the author has a personal value of, 'paying workers well'. As you can see by the math this was a standard $4 a KW install so a 25% reduction would only take a savvy customer saying, "How about $3 a KW?". Although, I support and encourage paying workers well, if you of means.
In general, residential solar projects are pretty darn simple projects and potentially, could easily become DIY projects for many. The State of California publishes guidance for local governments and encourages the adoption of pre-approved plans, while few local governments (in my neck of the woods) have responded to the guidance, if/when they do we could see a surge of solar installations when the word gets out.
Additionally, that thread contained numerous comments which share the advice of, 'manage your installation by hiring trades directly and cut costs dramatically' - 6 cents a KWh (assuming a 30 lifespan of the panels) is becoming increasingly common and 30 years is probably cutting short the life of the panels.
Relationship to short term price: Slowly the investing public is learning the truth of solar's potential and the demand for Powerwall is building. The local distributors that I have queried, 5 in total, report very strong interest with Powerwall as it is 30% the cost of currently available products. I was ecstatic to read the author confirm a price of $3,500.00 retail as my greatest fear was that TE wouldn't make that target or would adjust up due to demand.
I agree with your statement that most car buyers take delivery out of inventory.
I disagree that you do not give any credence to the 'D' issue. If it is not a problem why have so many 'D levers' been pulled in the last couple months.
Announcement of a 100+battery and AP 2.0 could very well reverse this and carry us to the model 3.
I want to be wrong on the 'D' issue. I am wrong as often as right but for the first time since joining this forum I believe demand is a genuine issue to discuss. I suggest it could be caused by multiple issues but I believe that Occam's Razor suggests Osborne is the most logical major force
I disagree that you do not give any credence to the 'D' issue. If it is not a problem why have so many 'D levers' been pulled in the last couple months.
Announcement of a 100+battery and AP 2.0 could very well reverse this and carry us to the model 3.
I want to be wrong on the 'D' issue. I am wrong as often as right but for the first time since joining this forum I believe demand is a genuine issue to discuss. I suggest it could be caused by multiple issues but I believe that Occam's Razor suggests Osborne is the most logical major force
3Victoria
Active Member
TM stated before that they have lots of demand levers they can pull. They are criticized if they make people wait and they are criticized if they don't have the demand. I think they are balancing production and demand well - that is the most efficient way forward.
Speaking purely based on the limited data available, it does seem like there has been a decrease in the rate of vins being issued between 8/1 and today. Rate has gone down from annualized rate of 50 k previously to roughly 30 k over this short time period. May not mean much but just something to keep track of.
Inventory cars get VINs so any cars sold today were already included in the VIN tally weeks or months ago.
Let's hope tesla has greater S demand than being reflected in the current vin rate. Perhaps they stalled on issuing vins for higher battery models prior to an upcoming upgrade.
Alternatively maybe this apparent slow down for S is due to higher sales for X.
My hope is that there is a lot of X demand in Europe and China that we just can't appreciate right now because vins for these cars have not been issued. This is supported by reports of high premiums being paid for X in China on gray market as well as fact that delivery for X in Europe is listed as early 2017.
Come on Elon, do your thing!!
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