Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[kenliles]

So I did a quick analysis of how low Tesla stock would have to drop for it to cause a [Elon] margin call
it's like $30. So yeah, not a big risk factor.

Could happen though,
as there would be no remaining capital in the universe to buy at $30...
(except a tiny lone IRA in a BofA account under the name PutzLutz).

 

[madodel]

Could happen though,
as there would be no remaining capital in the universe to buy at $30...
(except a tiny lone IRA in a BofA account under the name PutzLutz).

And definitely BOA will survive all economic disasters as it is just as financially secure as Deutsche Bank.

 

[jhm]

I asked a simple question after you accused a certain CEO of borrowing against company shares to maintain his particular style of living. I might therefore ask you the same question right back.

Let me refresh your memory. You said: ...but we do know that Elon has his shares in his own margin account and is borrowing against them to finance his lifestyle and other things.

Note the bolded of which I know no such thing about and nothing in your second post on the topic proved that he was using the money to 'finance his lifestyle'. So, I ask again, what personal stuffs is he spending the money on?

Camping out in Tesla factories is pretty extravagant. Then there's that rocketry hobby.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

No, in this situation, you don't have ownership of that share until Mitch return the share to you. Adam has the sole ownership of that share.

Seriously? If my broker lent my share I am not an owner? I don't participate in rise and drop of the stock?

Now, if my broker went bankrupt anything could happen, but until then, my account certainly shows I own TSLA, same as Adam. Difference being that I can't vote mine until I force recall. Hence 2 owners of (+1) TSLA, one owner of (-1) TSLA, equal 1 share = 1 vote

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Although majority of shares sold short were lent by institutions, not all of them were, as some were lent by retail SH.

The above was basis of my napkin math awhile back in this thread. I should probably update it as it was based on Q1 figures. The bottom line conclusion was that before voting there will need to be recall of 22M shares or a huge 40% of the retail shares (as institutions are not likely to sell before the voting, and, incidentally, based on statistic collected in the research Article I linked above, they are not likely to sell after the voting either. I guess there is caveat here - unless there is major run-up in SP). This potential need to buy shares by short sellers in the quantity equal to 40% of the quantity of retail shares would result in a major event. I believe this was the reason for Elon's 'unwise' tweet.

Agreed in everything but a bit of math, and this is similar to the point I recently made:
Based on your numbers (close enough to mine), if ALL shares are recalled, 21% of short shares need to be bought back out of 33% retail shares, i.e. 21/33 = 63.6% of retail shares need to be sold for a full recall, not 40% you calculated

Of course, this just reinforces point that squeeze may happen...

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Yes, according to Tesla, there would only be one owner of record in the case of a share loaned to a short and bought by someone other than the loaning party, however, in terms of their position, they still have an ownership right to that share. They did not sell it, they loaned it to someone else, on the understanding that it would be returned at a later date. The short has an obligation to return it to them on demand or of their own accord, independent of the price they must pay to obtain the share to return. While the share is loaned, the original owner cannot use the rights afforded by ownership, such as voting and receiving dividends, but he still technically owns it.

Great description.
Small correction: If there was a dividend, lender would've received it, and it would've been paid by party short TSLA.

 

[Seesaw]

Tesla has just introduced a new 2 year lease offer on Model S and X - could be a way to get some of those 400,000 Model 3 reservation holders into a Tesla. Great deal if you qualify for tax credits as it will be spread over a shorter period of time.

A 2-year lease option is one of our most popular requests. We listened and are launching a limited time test of a 2-year lease on Model Sand Model X. Starting at only $593/month (details here), our new 2-year lease program was designed just for you to drive electric today, and is available on all Model S and X orders placed by September 12th.

For additional savings, combine this offer with the Tesla Referral Program and apply a $1,000 credit towards your configuration. Just get the special personal code of any Tesla owner and enter it at the time of order.

It’s never been more affordable to experience the exhilarating performance and extraordinary safety of the groundbreaking Tesla Model S sedan and Model X SUV. With the best safety ratings of any car ever built and equipped with driver assistance Autopilot features that steer, change lanes and control speed, Tesla’s zero-emissions vehicles have revolutionized the modern driving experience.​

 

[PaulRocket]

Tesla has just introduced a new 2 year lease offer on Model S and X - could be a way to get some of those 400,000 Model 3 reservation holders into a Tesla. Great deal if you qualify for tax credits as it will be spread over a shorter period of time.

A 2-year lease option is one of our most popular requests. We listened and are launching a limited time test of a 2-year lease on Model Sand Model X. Starting at only $593/month (details here), our new 2-year lease program was designed just for you to drive electric today, and is available on all Model S and X orders placed by September 12th.

For additional savings, combine this offer with the Tesla Referral Program and apply a $1,000 credit towards your configuration. Just get the special personal code of any Tesla owner and enter it at the time of order.

It’s never been more affordable to experience the exhilarating performance and extraordinary safety of the groundbreaking Tesla Model S sedan and Model X SUV. With the best safety ratings of any car ever built and equipped with driver assistance Autopilot features that steer, change lanes and control speed, Tesla’s zero-emissions vehicles have revolutionized the modern driving experience.​

Interesting. So now we know when the 100kWh battery pack and AP 2.0 is coming. Must be the 13th of September.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Interesting. So now we know when the 100kWh battery pack and AP 2.0 is coming. Must be the 13th of September.

Or simply it allows for more Q3 deliveries and confirmed orders.

 

[NicoV]

Interesting. So now we know when the 100kWh battery pack and AP 2.0 is coming. Must be the 13th of September.

Or maybe because US orders can't be fillfilled before the end of Q3 after the 13th.

 

[electracity]

Or maybe because US orders can't be fillfilled before the end of Q3 after the 13th.

I think the new lease is about Q4. They have a lot of small battery MX orders that they haven't filled. The have the Euro model X orders in Q3.

But the new lease is certainly an indicator that the model 3 and the anticipation of AP 2.0 has really messed up order timing. Most people wanting an S/X today are knowledgeable enough to wait.

 

[Matias]

Osborne effect

 

[Matias]

Was it wise to show Model 3 more than a year before you can deliver it..
Actually almost two years before. Seems like classic Osborne case.

 

[electracity]

Was it wise to show Model 3 more than a year before you can deliver it..

No choice, I think. Tesla spends money like a much bigger car company. Either they explicitly show the path to that size or they are viewed as a financial failure.

AP 2.0 was always intended to fill the space between the M3 reveal and release, I think. Delays of either may be brutal.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Osborne effect

Was it wise to show Model 3 more than a year before you can deliver it..

In order to secure Panasonic's participation in the Gigafactory, I believe Tesla had to show them that there was a huge market for something like Model 3. The reveal back in March and the subsequent numbers of pre-orders did just that.

It is not unusual for automakers to show off their car designs long before initial customer availability.

 

[cheshire cat]

it's not unusual to be the first and last time you get to see them never mind buy one

 

[Lessmog]

it's not unusual to be the first and last time you get to see them never mind buy one

In order to secure Panasonic's participation in the Gigafactory, I believe Tesla had to show them that there was a huge market for something like Model 3. The reveal back in March and the subsequent numbers of pre-orders did just that.

It is not unusual for automakers to show off their car designs long before initial customer availability.

Au-hem-di. Aahh-Porschew. (Ges-Honda-heit)
Just to blow a couple out of my nose.

 

[Krugerrand]

Was it wise to show Model 3 more than a year before you can deliver it..
Actually almost two years before. Seems like classic Osborne case.

Yes, it was wise. Without doing so the following would not have happened:

a) Tesla wouldn't know the true demand for the vehicle, now they do so they can better plan with clarity and focus...which led to...
b) the timeline being pulled forward for the Model 3...which led to....
c) increased the pressure on the other OEMs to build EVs

 

[brian45011]

. Great deal if you qualify for tax credits as it will be spread over a shorter period of time.

The credit can only be claimed by the first taxpayer that titles the car (and only for that tax year.). If it's Tesla Finance, they have no U.S. tax liability to apply the credit against. The $695 acquisition fee is paid up front but the $395 disposition fee is collected when the car is returned.

 

[racer26]

I can just see the shorts foaming at the mouth already! Obviously a 2 yr lease program is because there is no demand for S/X, and not because they keep growing production capacity.