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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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Weirdly written article but just sounds like some sort of rebate on EV's from the government. Unless they are only going to offer the rebate on Tesla's.
India has very high taxes on imported cars. I don't know if it's like China where they need to partner with a local company or not. I think not, but the fact that the article mentions a JV indicates that I'm wrong.

BTW I spent quite a bit of time in India in the 80's. Unimaginably bad cars. Appeared to be copies of 1950's British cars. A close friend owned several that were almost new. He kept the window winder handles in the glove boxes when they fell off.
 
Isn't lithium only a small part of the batteries and found pretty much everywhere on earth?
Yes and yes.

The issue with location is that the cost of extraction varies.

But it's not an issue. Obviously it's better (cheaper and more ecological) to import lithium as opposed to importing cells that contain the lithium.
 
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Love of Fried Food Could Curb India's Crude Oil Imports

It looks like India would really like to limit its dependency on oil imports. Importing lithium is a trivial issue relative to importing oil. Long term, India could import used batteries and recycle/repurpose them.

Seems like a headline that would be on The Onion not Bloomberg! Seems like India has a lot of micro movers too since I don't think they have the air regulations that more developed countries have
 
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No. While I don't have the same depth of information on the X as on the S, the order rate on the X is less than 700/week right now. 1200 is also at the top of the plausible order rate for the S based on available data. Exactly 4 weeks ago, they assigned 152000, they have yet to assign 156000.
Exactly my thought. X seems to be under 750/week and S is somewhere around 1000/week with a lot of 60s in the mix.
 
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It is surrounded by Oceans, which have lithium. I don't think much is mined through ocean filtering, but it is an option. If cheaper, Australia would likely be the source of raw material.
With the proximity of the GF to the lithium mine it makes me wonder how well positioned the next one will be.

I've posted this before, EM had several back up plans one of these was to purchase a start up company that had demonstrated the ability to extract lithium from mineral rich brine. Salton Sea startup (Simbol) .

Tesla Tried To Buy Lithium Startup Simbol for $325M

Email from EM to Simbol. Tesla term sheet
 
Anyone has any idea why the stock jumped today?

Yep, yesterday afternoon's drop of nearly $3 was a work of fiction. Yesterday morning's drop could be attributed to two factors: concern for the $411 early debt repayment, and some creative short-selling (as evidenced by deep dip followed almost immediately by substantial but only-partial recovery). By mid-day yesterday, TSLA was well on its way to recovering its lost ground. Then, as we entered the really low-volume afternoon trading hours on an already low-volume day (2.1M shares for entire day), TSLA started dropping with no news while broader markets were rising. Translation: short-sellers were taking advantage of the extremely thin trading to push TSLA down and convince traders that the rally of last Thursday had now transitioned into a downtrend. Today, traders shrugged off yesterday afternoon's drop and brought TSLA back to where it should have been. Thus, the near-vertical rise this morning.
 
Where are you getting this information from?

Tracking anything publicly said about a Tesla VIN ("hey guys, got my VIN yesterday, it is 143xx. DS mailed me we go into production next week."). Some people are even more obsessive as me with this (yes, there is a cult for this) and the findings are pretty much always the same.
 
Another wedge formed today, but from the high of this morning, contested the 230.50 and 230.00 resistance level and the formation broke down like 5 minutes ago. I was hoping for another breakout to continue the rally with some momentum..

with the 50DMA and 200DMA coming together at 228 level, and in severely oversold territory, we just need a reason to continue the leg up.

I was expecting M3 reveal #2 at the giga factory. Didnt Elon say that? Where is it?
 
Tracking anything publicly said about a Tesla VIN ("hey guys, got my VIN yesterday, it is 143xx. DS mailed me we go into production next week."). Some people are even more obsessive as me with this (yes, there is a cult for this) and the findings are pretty much always the same.

"findings are pretty much always the same" you mean as a % of sales?
 
Another wedge formed today, but from the high of this morning, contested the 230.50 and 230.00 resistance level and the formation broke down like 5 minutes ago. I was hoping for another breakout to continue the rally with some momentum..

with the 50DMA and 200DMA coming together at 228 level, and in severely oversold territory, we just need a reason to continue the leg up.

I was expecting M3 reveal #2 at the giga factory. Didnt Elon say that? Where is it?
He never said that. The closest thing he said that may be M3 reveal 2 was near the end of this year.
 
Over the last 3 months, the average is about 5000 VIN's per month, based on my perhaps not entirely rigorous methodology.

Not sure where you get that number. Exactly three months ago (May 9th) we were at 143000. Since we have yet to see 156000, the number is below 4333/month. You also need to exclude some (smallish) ranges that are clearly inventory and I get around 4200/month, at best. Finally, there was an uptick after the release of the 60kWh model but that seems to have died down by now. Maybe it's just summer blues and we will return to see some growth.

I think the 100KWh battery is more important to the Model X than the S, but both cars will benefit from early adapters, road warriors and touring drivers. 330 miles on a Model S will be exciting and will encourage some fence sitters to jump.

Agrees, a 100kWh battery has the potential to unlock demand. At the same time, more and more people are expected AutoPilot 2.0 any day now and especially current top-of-the-line owners may postpone an upgrade even when the 100 is available. Pure speculation but it is very well possible that the 100kWh basically is done but that Tesla won't release it until AP2 hardware is available as well. I believe such a combo has the potential to equal the effect of the release of AWD + AP1 at the end of 2014 which is basically what lifted the Model S from a 35k/year car to a 50k/year car.
 
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Not sure where you get that number. Exactly three months ago (May 9th) we were at 143000. Since we have yet to see 156000, the number is below 4333/month. You also need to exclude some (smallish) ranges that are clearly inventory and I get around 4200/month, at best. Finally, there was an uptick after the release of the 60kWh model but that seems to have died down by now. Maybe it's just summer blues and we will return to see some growth.



Agrees, a 100kWh battery has the potential to unlock demand. At the same time, more and more people are expected AutoPilot 2.0 any day now and especially current top-of-the-line owners may postpone an upgrade even when the 100 is available. Pure speculation but it is very well possible that the 100kWh basically is done but that Tesla won't release it until AP2 hardware is available as well. I believe such a combo has the potential to equal the effect of the release of AWD + AP1 at the end of 2014 which is basically what lifted the Model S from a 35k/year car to a 50k/year car.

Why do you link 100kwh with AP2? Do you imply that 60kwh won't get AP2? I don't believe that.
 
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