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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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No. While I don't have the same depth of information on the X as on the S, the order rate on the X is less than 700/week right now. 1200 is also at the top of the plausible order rate for the S based on available data. Exactly 4 weeks ago, they assigned 152000, they have yet to assign 156000.
I've been trying to weed out the tracker data and simplify the data down to something I can analysis without SAS. I just looked at the first entry for each new thousand entry (145k, 146k, 147k...). The numbers were buckshot at the beginning of the year, but they seem like the backoffice is more structured about assigning VIN's now. Over the last 3 months, the average is about 5000 VIN's per month, based on my perhaps not entirely rigorous methodology. I've been following the demand thread and was concerned, but at this point, I think they have been pretty smart about tweaking demand as production improves. I think tweaking X demand will be more challenging, since it is such a unique car. Tesla is in some luddite crosshairs, but the model X is stylistically more controversial, in part due to FW doors.
Anyhow, I'm pretty confident the new performance indications point to 100Kwh battery and I am also confident they are about 1000 a week model S. I think the 100KWh battery is more important to the Model X than the S, but both cars will benefit from early adapters, road warriors and touring drivers. 330 miles on a Model S will be exciting and will encourage some fence sitters to jump.
 
No. While I don't have the same depth of information on the X as on the S, the order rate on the X is less than 700/week right now. 1200 is also at the top of the plausible order rate for the S based on available data. Exactly 4 weeks ago, they assigned 152000, they have yet to assign 156000.

Anyone can confirm? Seems like pretty valuable info.

Pretty random, but I just took a vacation to SF and Honolulu 2 weeks ago and I walked by two stores "opening summer 2016". In SF, off Van Ness Ave. The one in Honolulu was at the massive Ala Moana Shopping Mall.
 

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Consensus Analyst Estimates for Q3

non-gaap Revenue
pre-q2-er: $2.4Bil
post-q2-er (now): $2.3 Bil

non-gaap EPS
pre-q2-er: $0.38
post-q2-er (now): $0.12


Consensus Analyst Estimates for Q4

non-gaap Revenue
pre-q2-er: $2.77 Bil
post-q2-er (now): $2.77 Bil

non-gaap EPS
pre-q2-er: $0.94
post-q2-er (now): $0.65

Where do you normally go to get these analyst estimates? Appreciate if you can provide the source. Hopefully they provide some base level assumptions for their figures. Thanks!
 
Yeah, if these were lemon returns, no EV incentive would be available. Look at the mileage... some of these were probably from the road trip marketing events, some are store demos and a few are the incoming store demos.

Who said anything about them being a lemon return? He said that maybe they had issues and were refused at delivery. (So never titled.)

We know that happened at least a few times. But the most likely thing is that they are selling the test drive units before they get too much wear and are worth less.
 
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