Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[FredTMC]

Apparently someone didn't get the news...

Tesla has a backlog of over 400k cars. That's not a typo. 400,000 cars

With respect to 60 KWh, review concepts of "conversion rate" and "price elasticity"

 

[MitchJi]

You are right, the first scenario is a good "problem" to have. But the second is better since you don't have to sweat an exit point.

Trailing stops.

This is why we should all just be buy-and-holding, since now the timing is harder to predict. increasingly I am thinking that the next big revaluation will happen with financially successful model 3, which is a very high bar indeed. The market (might) shrug off M3 releases, 6 deliveries, good reviews, 3 quarters of "we promise M3 is ramping" etc. There will come a quarter with startling top line revenue or profits or something that will provide the big jolt. OR the market decides to give TM some credit and it happens earlier on one of the other milestones.

I partially agree. I think the biggest jolt will happen when the M3 ramps successfully, probably in late 2017 or by July 2018 at the latest.

But I think (seems reasonable but this might be partly wishful thinking?!) that we will get a nice boost from the MS-MX production/finances and Tesla Energy by, at the latest February 2017. 2.2k per week of MS-MX plus 3-4 GWh of TE for a quarter should be enough to boost the SP to something like at least $260-$325 IMO.

 

[X Yes?]

Tesla has a backlog of over 400k cars. That's not a typo. 400,000 cars

High margin Model S and X were planned to fund that planned delivery a few years off.

That's if all goes well, those "reservations" can suffer the same fate of the 32K Model X "reservations" if something goes wrong.

 

[techmaven]

That's if all goes well, those "reservations" can suffer the same fate of the 32K Model X "reservations" if something goes wrong.

As in a slew of people bought high margin Model S's earlier, instead?

Or that the Model X is the 4th highest selling plug-in vehicle in the U.S., YTD, selling almost 3x the BMW X5 xDrive40e, and 7x the Volvo XC90 T8 and 7x the Porsche Cayenne E-Hybrid?

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

I sincerely believe Google will enter into a partnership with Tesla asap within their moonshot division as it would be accretive to both companies and almost guarantee success of sustainable EV transport.

 

[schonelucht]

"Why on EARTH do you think there's a X60D? Musky Boy and Co. have run out of things to sell now that all the rich hippies have bought Teslas" - every short on wall street.

I would love to hear an alternative theory as to why Tesla introduced a 60D Model X at a steep discount other than to stimulate demand.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

I would love to hear an alternative theory as to why Tesla introduced a 60D Model X at a steep discount other than to stimulate demand.

Perhaps people only need a 60d?

 

[MonroeSS]

Apparently someone didn't get the news...

Tesla has a backlog of over 400k cars. That's not a typo. 400,000 cars

With respect to 60 KWh, review concepts of "conversion rate" and "price elasticity"

This ^^

Assuming the Model 3 debuts in early 2018 and it takes Tesla 6 years to produce a cumulative 400,000 Model 3s, Tesla is booked till 2024!!

I don't think demand is a short term or a long term concern. The medium term(before M3) is the problem. I am not seeing a path towards 50% growth (120,000) for 2017 with the S and X alone. This IMO explains Tesla's urgency at getting the M3 sooner to market.

 

[X Yes?]

Or that the Model X is the 4th highest selling plug-in vehicle in the U.S., YTD?

Obviously that's not enough to keep the production line moving. Demand on the existing products was key to not needing another capital raise. With the cash needs of SolarCity and Model 3 development, if the stock price allows, we will see another capital raise sooner, than later.

 

[MartinAustin]

Tesla Cuts Starting Price of Model X Crossover | Fox Business

They're just relaying that erroneous Reuters thing that came out of Detroit... without checking any of the facts

 

[Irishjugg]

Obviously that's not enough to keep the production line moving. Demand on the existing products was key to not needing another capital raise. With the cash needs of SolarCity and Model 3 development, if the stock price allows, we will see another capital raise sooner, than later.

You say things like obviously when they're ate several scenarios possible that differ from the one you think is correct (all public comments point to you being incorrect). Not that you have really posted anything useful in a while, so responding to you is a waste. Just pointing out that your argument is a logical fallacy and not supported by all of the facts. Clearly, it isn't obvious.

 

[tanner]

I sincerely believe Google will enter into a partnership with Tesla asap within their moonshot division as it would be accretive to both companies and almost guarantee success of sustainable EV transport.

I hope not.... I'm not the biggest fan of Google and their privacy policies, but that's just me.

 

[Johan]

They're just relaying that erroneous Reuters thing that came out of Detroit... without checking any of the facts

... Comme d'habitude.

Honestly, are there no "journalists" who take pride in their trade anymore? Even Reuters, they used to be a reliable fact source, has become a "content provider" i.e. most "journalism" nowadays is all about filling in the space between the ads. And generating "clicks". Laughable.

 

[FredTMC]

I sincerely believe Google will enter into a partnership with Tesla asap within their moonshot division as it would be accretive to both companies and almost guarantee success of sustainable EV transport.

As a long term shareholder, I'd be more than okay with this.

Quite frankly, I'm surprised a partnership hasn't happened yet.

 

[N5329K]

Yes, saw it yesterday... Annoying and impossible to see headlines.

That's Yahoo's approach to just about everything. Amazing they still exist.
Robin

 

[tanner]

I would love to hear an alternative theory as to why Tesla introduced a 60D Model X at a steep discount other than to stimulate demand.

It was a joke..

 

[X Yes?]

You say things like obviously when they're ate several scenarios possible that differ from the one you think is correct (all public comments point to you being incorrect). Not that you have really posted anything useful in a while, so responding to you is a waste. Just pointing out that your argument is a logical fallacy and not supported by all of the facts. Clearly, it isn't obvious.

So you think "obviously" is a stretch. So you're thinking demand is robust enough to get them to Model 3 without any further margin killing moves?

 

[SunCatcher]

Elon blocked Fortune Magazine on Twitter. He's having one of his days.

Right on Elon.

F the bullies.

 

[MissAutobahn]

This ^^

Assuming the Model 3 debuts in early 2018 and it takes Tesla 6 years to produce a cumulative 400,000 Model 3s, Tesla is booked till 2024!!

I don't think demand is a short term or a long term concern. The medium term(before M3) is the problem. I am not seeing a path towards 50% growth (120,000) for 2017 with the S and X alone. This IMO explains Tesla's urgency at getting the M3 sooner to market.

Don't forget the first (about 50-100000) M3's late 2017.
I heard or read it (said by Elon Musk) somewhere.

 

[Drax7]

The demand for the base model 3 with a 200 mile range was huge.
The point here is that only 200 miles of range is not an impediment to demand.
Hence why not introduce a model s and x with only 200 miles of range,
and expand demand plus utilize the full potential of the assembly line.
That is a pure no brainer.