Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[austinEV]

Saying it's up is an exaggeration. Currently it's down 1.65%. But I agree with the gist of your post.

its up in the last two trading days so Mike Smith is *technically* correct (the best kind of correct)

 

[esk8mw]

TSLA is nearly achieving parity with Nasdaq on the day. This is bonkers. More please!

 

[Drax7]

Seeking alpo cranks more bearish articles per day than tesla does cars.
At least 10 bearish articles today.

if we finish higher on the day, ill double my position.

 

[MitchJi]

What are you basing your optimism of TSLA cashflow positive on?

The very purpose of the recent capital raise is to spend it on CapEx and infrastructure. If they were to achieve positive cashflow this quickly why raise capital at all? and cause the dilution and investor fury?? If you are talking about one fluke coincidental qrtr, every one in the market knows that it is fluke, why would market positively react to it?

I'm not sure what but I'm sure it will. Maybe party Because it demonstrates that they don't need to do multiple cap raises to finish the M3 ramp?

In fact, ironically, a positive cashflow might actually mean that they are not making enough progress on model-3! Sustained cash flow positive will not begin until volume deliveries of Model-3. That is ways away.

I believe it's clear that they don't currently need to raise any cash to complete the M3 ramp. Tortured logic, I don't see any connection between that and progress on the M3.

I was talking about EPS with regards to SCTY. You are talking about cash-flow. Even if we were to focus on cash-flow, there are many elements here. Firstly, SCTY cachflow is including non-recourse debt. Not sure if market appreciates that sort of vocabulary with regards to Tesla. Secondly, that is merely guidance. Just like Tesla, SCTY has been consistently missing guidance pretty much on every metric. This cash-flow thing is a mirage it will not happen for SCTY any time soon. Thirdly, most importantly, even if SCTY adds a tiny positive cash-flow, that will by no means be anywhere close to changing the cashflow on the parent, given that the parent is precisely designed to be cashflow negative (and hence the need for capital raise).

Part of your rant against the SCTY deal was that it would mean no cash flow positive for Tesla! Designed to be "cash flow negative"? When? Not anymore.

On an unrelated note, your timeline of SCTY merger is totally off. Here is Musk on the merger CC:

"then we'll move into a diligence phase very quickly. Hopefully, diligence can take place promptly, so in the next two weeks, three weeks, and we can get to a place where everything makes sense, that there's a signed merger agreement."

The lawyer who replied said that after the due diligence is completed it would take about 2-3 months to complete the process, voting for example.

You have been extremely negative about the acquisition. Why am I not surprised that you didn't even listen closely to the Call?

 

[justdoit]

Wow. This has to be shorts covering. Anyone have updates wrt shares available to borrow at Fidelity or IB?

 

[SBenson]

I'm not sure what but I'm sure it will. Maybe party Because it demonstrates that they don't need to do multiple cap raises to finish the M3 ramp?

I believe it's clear that they don't currently need to raise any cash to complete the M3 ramp. Tortured logic, I don't see any connection between that and progress on the M3.


Part of your rant against the SCTY deal was that it would mean no cash flow positive for Tesla! Designed to be "cash flow negative"? When? Not anymore.


The lawyer who replied said that after the due diligence is completed it would take about 2-3 months to complete the process, voting for example.

You have been extremely negative about the acquisition. Why am I not surprised that you didn't even listen closely to the Call?

Your not so sure cashflow positive will come soon. Hang tight.

 

[esk8mw]

Wow. This has to be shorts covering. Anyone have updates wrt shares available to borrow at Fidelity or IB?

There was recently 62k @ IB, now 59k. Small sample size, but appears to be more shorting going on.

 

[schonelucht]

Man, if I was a short I would be FURIOUS right now. Just fuming.

Not really. Just as a long is happy with an unexpected dip because it allows them to load up on shares cheaply, shorts are happy with an unexpected outperform because it allows them to short at higher prices.

 

[dha]

...shorts are happy with an unexpected outperform because it allows them to short at higher prices.

Not if there are no shares available to short and you have to pay exorbitant hard-to-borrow interest on an ever-increasing position.

 

[stealthology]

Gotta love Reuters. Breaking:

BREAKINGVIEWS-Tesla pressure clouds Elon Musk's solar gambit - RTRS

05-Jul-2016 15:13
(The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.)
By Antony Currie
NEW YORK, July 5 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Tesla TSLA.O pressures are clouding Elon Musk's solar gambit. The $32 billion electric-car maker he founded and runs has missed its delivery target again. That's bad news for a company aiming to quintuple production in short order. A fatal crash also has invited scrutiny of Tesla's Autopilot feature. These concerns further undermine an already questionable effort to buy SolarCity SCTY.O.
Some 14,370 customers received keys to their new Tesla in the three months to June, 15 percent below Musk's stated goal. There is a silver lining: about 5,000 Model S and X vehicles also were on their way to new owners.
The inability to get close to short-term objectives when building just two types of car is jarring, however. It also does not augur well for Musk's bigger goal of making 500,000 vehicles a year by 2018. That looks ambitious as it is, requiring big investments in staff and technology as well as essentially perfect execution of the kind that has eluded production of the Model X. It has been dogged by parts and quality problems.
Meanwhile, U.S. authorities are taking greater interest in Tesla. Its Autopilot feature is designed to allow drivers to hand over much of the operation of the vehicle to computers � once they have agreed to switch on the system and be ready to resume control.
It's not yet clear what caused the deathly collision in May. The transition to assisted and autonomous driving, though, promises to have such a profound effect on the industry that regulators like the National Highway Traffic System Administration are likely to spend far more time investigating such crashes than automakers might expect.
Throw in growing competition for electric and self-driving capabilities from deeper-pocketed rivals like Daimler DAIGn.DE, BMW BMWG.DE and General Motors GM.N, and Musk ought to have more than enough to keep him busy at Tesla.
That makes all the more unpalatable his pursuit of SolarCity, the solar-energy company he also helped start and where he serves as chairman. The proposal is a corporate-governance nightmare. And it would soak up management attention just when it's needed elsewhere. Musk has not yet presented a financial or business case to convince even his usually giddy shareholders. Meanwhile, reasons not to do the deal are piling up.

 

[MitchJi]

Auto Stocks Sell Off: From Brexit Fog To Tesla's Delivery Slog | Stock News & Stock Market Analysis - IBD

Automakers were among the worst-performing groups in the stock market today, reflecting global growth concerns, Brexit uncertainty and more trouble for diesel-powered cars. Fiat Chrysler (FCAU) and European automakers led the sell-off, while Tesla Motors (TSLA) managed to limit its losses.

General Motors (GM) and Ford Motor (F) sold off about 3% Tuesday afternoon, even as crude prices tumbled 5%. But oil is off on concerns that the global economy is slowing. That's hardly good news for General Motors, Ford and other automakers, especially after U.S. industrywide sales for June fell more than expected.

But it was European automakers that suffered the most. Fiat Chrysler fell 9% to pennies above its lowest level set just after the U.S.-European entity returned to U.S. markets in late 2014. Volkswagen (VLKAY), Daimler (DDAIF) and BMW (BMWYY) skidded 5%.

 

[esk8mw]

Not really. Just as a long is happy with an unexpected dip because it allows them to load up on shares cheaply, shorts are happy with an unexpected outperform because it allows them to short at higher prices.

I went extra long (ST options) into deliveries hoping for a beat. If Tesla posted 19,700 deliveries and the stock went up 1 percent I would be PISSED. Like, throwing things around my office furious. Just applying the same logic to shorts.

 

[Noble Ninja]

Man, if I was a short I would be FURIOUS right now. Just fuming.

Well, there are about EIGHT articles about TSLA up just today, over at Seeking Bias / Seeking Mediocrity / Seeking Manipulation, including ones written by the usual suspects like Anton Whaleman, Mustache Skeptic and Poorman Santos. So yes, the shorts are indeed furious and are retaliating with FUD articles and posts on a bottom-feeder blogsite that has no credibility and is only good to read for the unintentional comedy.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

Bulllllllllllllllllish!

 

[theschnell]

Still pinching myself. However, am still concerned about ER. But whatever, it too shall pass whatever it brings. Not giving my shares to the shorts anytime soon, come what may.

 

[schonelucht]

I went extra long (ST options) into deliveries hoping for a beat. If Tesla posted 19,700 deliveries and the stock went up 1 percent I would be PISSED. Like, throwing things around my office furious. Just applying the same logic to shorts.

Emotions are funny. You actually lost more today than had it gone up 1% yet I am assuming you are not throwing stuff around the office. I am in the same boat : I am quite happy to have gotten out easily this morning, yet the only logical sentiment should be disappointment : had Tesla delivered according to guidance then I would have profited a lot more. But the weekend reset my expectations and now I am suddenly happy about a result which would have made me sad had you told me on Friday at which price I would exit my play.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Purely speculation:

The MM are holding SolarCity around $25, and Tesla around $220 until the deal is finalized. SolarCity will merge with Tesla. The safest and fastest way for SolarCity to realize its optimal value is to merge with Tesla. Furthermore, Tesla will profit tremendously from merging with SolarCity once SolarCity's optimal value is realized.

Once the deal is complete, Elon will hold a long press conference to explain the reasons the deal makes sense. Maybe around July 31st?

 

[austinEV]

Emotions are funny. You actually lost more today than had it gone up 1% yet I am assuming you are not throwing stuff around the office. I am in the same boat : I am quite happy to have gotten out easily this morning, yet the only logical sentiment should be disappointment : had Tesla delivered according to guidance then I would have profited a lot more. But the weekend reset my expectations and now I am suddenly happy about a result which would have made me sad had you told me on Friday at which price I would exit my play.

Well @esk8mw (and I) understood the risk we were taking by holding a long into the weekend. Having taken the wrong positition we expect a loss in this situation. It feels like the financial hit (so far, knock on wood) is undersized based on the news. All weekend I told myself to expect a 6% hit, so that when it was 4% I would feel better. I am very pleased to have lost money today at <2%. (with 13 minutes to go)

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Gotta love Reuters. Breaking:

That "breaking news" is hilarious. Not only is he about 12 hours too late for it
to be "breaking news" he basically doesn't say anything that hasn't already been said, much of which has already been refuted lol

 

[theschnell]

That "breaking news" is hilarious. Not only is he about 12 hours too late for it
to be "breaking news" he basically doesn't say anything that hasn't already been said, much of which has already been refuted lol

Breaking! All the negative headlines of the past week blended into one article.