Would you have recommended that elon not start a rocket company, and then a re usable rocket ?
in fact do you know anybody on earth that would dare start a rocket company?
don't be so sure, maybe you don't know.
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Would you have recommended that elon not start a rocket company, and then a re usable rocket ?
in fact do you know anybody on earth that would dare start a rocket company?
don't be so sure, maybe you don't know.
Krugerrand
Meow
No, you didn't. I quite specifically told you back then that your ORIGINAL numbers (which were far greater than what you've posted here) were wrong. But it's okay, it's on the Internet for posterity.
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MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
I think Elon's plan is to raise a substantial amount of the money required by a loan, and that he is sure he can get it on good terms.
Krugerrand
Meow
First of all, this is 'your' problem, not his problem. He's perfectly fine taking the criticism, name calling and everything else if a goal he's stated isn't reached.
Secondly, he's given his reasons in the past for overstating the possible. Again, not his fault other's can't grasp the concept and instead want to make it all about failure. Additionally, some uncontrollable crap has happened along the way - like a port shutdown, like suppliers failing on their own commitments to provide quality parts on time.
Wrong. Elon is squeezing Elon and everyone else around him for better commitments. I get you don't like it, but that's how he rolls. Instead of trying to fight it, work with it and invest to your advantage.
He's not interested in the stock price. He's publically stated that several times. If he'd had his choice, Tesla would not be a public company. Again, use the information that he's provided you and his ultra consistency to invest to your advantage.
Things changed. Hundreds of thousands of crazy people want the car yesterday. Whatcha going to do?
Again, you've made some assumptions that you'll see were wrong. The guy is way ahead of you.
Yes, it is on the Internet: $5-10 billion has been my prediction. Go ahead, feel free to read my original post from 2013:
For The Record: Tesla Will Likely Need 5 To 10 Billion USD For Its Gen III Car And Battery Plant
For The Record: Tesla Will Likely Need 5 To 10 Billion USD For Its Gen III Car And Battery Plant - Tales From The Future
Note that I wrote this before Tesla announced the Gigafactory plans in January 2014.
Now, how about Julian's perfect prediction for 2018 (cars sold and TSLA stock price)?
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
But except for the RBC and maybe the Baird raise the other raises are essentially votes of "no-confidence ".
A 5% drop on a day Tesla plans to deliver 500k cars in 2018 as everyone in WST doesn't believe it.
Tesla stock is, and has always been, a war between near-sighted traders who laser-focus on the financials, and far-sighted investors, which are believers. This creates a classic case for long term investors who are willing to take the risk swimming thru the short-term volatility, EM has said too many crazy things in the past and got discredited at when a few of them came in late not as he predicted (though most of them did come true in the end). Of course not 100% sure, but I'll take Steve Jobs' words
“the people who are crazy enough to think they can change the world are the ones who do.”
and hold on tight with my tesla shares.
Let's see what will happen in next couple of years!
Tesla stock is, and has always been, a war between near-sighted traders who laser-focus on the financials, and far-sighted investors, which are believers. This creates a classic case for long term investors who are willing to take the risk swimming thru the short-term volatility, EM has said too many crazy things in the past and got discredited at when a few of them came in late not as he predicted (though most of them did come true in the end). Of course not 100% sure, but I'll take Steve Jobs' words
“the people who are crazy enough to think they can change the world are the ones who do.”
and hold on tight with my tesla shares.
Let's see what will happen in next couple of years!
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
You don't hit a target by aiming below it.
People keep saying EM over-promises and under-delivers. But I think it is worth remembering that when Tesla IPO'd in June 2010, Tesla committed to getting the Model S to market in 2012, with an eventual production target of 20,000 cars. That seemed totally outlandish at the time, and Tesla's predictions were criticized by many in the auto industry as unreasonable and unachievable for a mature car company, much less a small start-up.
But the Model S was launched in August 2012, as predicted, and by Q1 2013 Tesla was already meeting its target run rate of 20,000 cars per year. Oh, yeah, and the very first car produced by Tesla top to bottom was voted "Car of the Century" by Car and Driver. Sales of the Model S this year, only four years later, will likely triple Tesla's original forecast of 20,000 cars per year, with demand still growing rapidly.
The naysayers were dead wrong with the Model S, and they will be again with the Model 3. The mistakes that were made with the Model X have clearly been taken to heart by Tesla and are not going to be repeated with the Model 3; as others have said if anything they have de-risked the Model 3 launch because everyone at Tesla recognizes the hazards of too much tinkering with Model 3 v 1.0. I think Tesla has a credible plan to launch the Model 3 in volume and on the timeline predicted or close to it. I think the people betting against Tesla's success on the Model 3 are very, very foolish.
But I thank them from the bottom of my heart for driving the stock price down, so I, like others on this thread, can put some frosting on my TSLA cake.
But the Model S was launched in August 2012, as predicted, and by Q1 2013 Tesla was already meeting its target run rate of 20,000 cars per year. Oh, yeah, and the very first car produced by Tesla top to bottom was voted "Car of the Century" by Car and Driver. Sales of the Model S this year, only four years later, will likely triple Tesla's original forecast of 20,000 cars per year, with demand still growing rapidly.
The naysayers were dead wrong with the Model S, and they will be again with the Model 3. The mistakes that were made with the Model X have clearly been taken to heart by Tesla and are not going to be repeated with the Model 3; as others have said if anything they have de-risked the Model 3 launch because everyone at Tesla recognizes the hazards of too much tinkering with Model 3 v 1.0. I think Tesla has a credible plan to launch the Model 3 in volume and on the timeline predicted or close to it. I think the people betting against Tesla's success on the Model 3 are very, very foolish.
But I thank them from the bottom of my heart for driving the stock price down, so I, like others on this thread, can put some frosting on my TSLA cake.
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Krugerrand
Meow
Those aren't your original numbers and we both know it. Your original numbers were twice those.
Note Gigafactory was talked about before either of the above events and that's when you flogged your other numbers.
My apologies if this comes across as disrespectful or rude. Elon can't get nine women to make a baby in one month.
We can't just say EVs are much easier or simpler to build than ICE cars without knowing all the facts. How much time does it take to cast an electric motor housing, machine it, paint it, weld the stator cores, wind them, machine the rotor shafts, balance it, fit it to a tight tolerance, assemble 5000 tiny battery cells, connect each one, install the BMS hardware versus the time taken to cast, machine and assemble an ICE drive train? GM spent $400 million to retool an existing factory that already builds full size vans, when they decided to make the Chevy GMC Mid-size trucks in Missouri. $400 million to build a brand new platform, 6 different body styles (Crew cab, extended cab, long box, short box), 3 different engine choices including a diesel, two different brands. and all this on an assembly line that builds full size vans on a completely different chassis. $400 million to make 150,000 a year vehicles right off the bat. How many billions has Tesla spent so far and still under 100,000 a year capacity?
The same argument is used to compare reliability because an EV drive train has fewer moving parts. A well made DeWalt power tool with tens of moving parts is a million times more reliable than a poorly cast, poorly designed hand tool with zero moving parts. I have seen cheap wrenches break in half at the first use.
Earnings beat expectations, orders are up nearly 50% for their volume seller the S, they have nearly 400,000 reservations for their next car and the Giggafactory is ahead of schedule. Tesla and Elon are doing fine.
Huge goals and ambitions are exactly what I want from a growth stock that could become a global behemoth in terms of value. if I wanted conservative and 3%pa returns I would invest in something like AT&T.
Huge goals and ambitions are exactly what I want from a growth stock that could become a global behemoth in terms of value. if I wanted conservative and 3%pa returns I would invest in something like AT&T.
Honestly, and maybe I'm being incredibly naïve here, but I think this all fits perfectly within Elon's plan to generate a massive short squeeze come Q2 earnings.
Remember his tweet of being short Tesla would be "probably unwise"? I think his action to "tank" the stock during Q1's ER was part of the plan to have shorts jump in en mass. I think Elon's trump card is the immense number of cash they'll be able to generate in Q2 from Model S/X and Tesla Energy. My gut tells me Q2 is truly where TE is going to enter the steep climb in the S curve he constantly references.
Remember his tweet of being short Tesla would be "probably unwise"? I think his action to "tank" the stock during Q1's ER was part of the plan to have shorts jump in en mass. I think Elon's trump card is the immense number of cash they'll be able to generate in Q2 from Model S/X and Tesla Energy. My gut tells me Q2 is truly where TE is going to enter the steep climb in the S curve he constantly references.
This is my secret hope too. Perhaps they can have it all, schedule pull ins and Q2 profits. The original idea was that they couldn't really spend that much on 3 this quarter anyway.
Krugerrand
Meow
Elon knows.
Well good for GM, but irrelevant. You've conveniently forgotten that Tesla didn't have an existing factory to start with, they had to buy one and do far more than retool it. They didn't have the skilled (as in had already done this kind of thing - you know, retool and build 6 different body styles, etc...) workforce, they had to recruit people and convince them it was worth quitting their secure jobs to come and do something super risky. They didn't have existing 'guts' - you know, engine, transmission blah, blah, blah. They had to design and make all that stuff from scratch. They didn't have a dealership network waiting to buy a crapload of vehicles coming of the line, they had to build their own network around the world AND legally fight a bunch of jerkoffs who tried to stop them doing it and are STILL trying to stop them from doing it. They had to build their own fuelling network around the world. Tesla hasn't had topnotch Tier 1 suppliers to draw from, they've had to go with smaller suppliers and there's been plenty of evidence of those suppliers not being able to keep up with Tesla vehicle demand and sometimes royally screwing Tesla on parts causing delays and Tesla having to pull things in house - like those darn seats, which messed up a Q4 and caused much angst, that has now caused a recall. Do I need to go on?
So, yeah. Tesla has spent a lot more money than GM, but they've also done a whole lot more with it and will be saving your children and grand children and the baby of those nine women with what they are doing.
You are right. But... Is this the "Is Tesla executing a great long term plan" thread or the "short term price movements" thread? Because what they did on the ER was bad for the short term valuation. Agree? That is wholly my point. By just rearranging messaging they could have done us a favor. Elon doesn't care about me. I am guilty of suspecting he did, in the sense that I thought he wanted to engineer a short squeeze to get financing on better terms. But even that is another sort of Elon caring about me and my stock valuation. As long as he gets the financing he probably doesn't even care about dilution. Fine.
Do it for morale then. Stop asking his team to do the impossible and making them seem late at every turn.
Other things you have said below. And I only had to read one article to find these.
"Only if the TSLA Gen III car is a resounding success and sells 150-250k units or above per year does a high (triple-digit) valuation of TSLA stock make sense." - 400k reservations enough?
"The crucial question to ask:
Will the TSLA Gen III be better rated by consumers/auto press and have higher margins than...
- GM Volt +4 years of refinements
- Nissan Leaf +4 years of refinements
- BMW i3 +4 years of refinements ?" - Umm, yes.
"Also keep in mind the three brands mentioned above will have built up nice economies of scale in EVs until 2020" - Nah.
"In my view, one should only compare cars within the same price range/market segments:
The BMW i3 and other EV /PHEV cars mentioned above should be compared to the (future) Model Gen III car from TSLA," - Still think they compare?
"One could even turn the argument around and say GM, Nissan and BMW have a 4-year headstart in the lower-end/mass-market EV and PHEV price segment until the Gen III is available from TSLA." LOL
"I am looking to add to my short in case TSLA rises above 150-175 $.
Disclosure: I am short TSLA." - Hope you closed that position.
That's basically the entirety of one article. Maybe you should post a "tales from the future - revisited" instablog.
Krugerrand
Meow
No, I don't agree. Short term valuation has been increased by a number of analysts.
Yes, I know what you really mean, but we've got some very happy campers here based on the decline of the SP.
That's the ticket! Now don't forget that and use it to your advantage next time.
Let Elon worry about the morale of his troops.
A caveman, sure.
But the question in Cali is whether a failed App developer or a wannabe actress can do it.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
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