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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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The stock drops 5% and it turns into SeekingAlpha around here.

Everyone second-guessing Elon and knowing exactly what he should do to maximize the share price, so confident in their assertions despite having orders of magnitude less information than Elon has about the company and its situation. It's his job to guide the company for long-term success, not to compromise the company in order to avoid doing anything that might feed the bear narrative.

The stock price fell today despite a huge value increase to the company, if you believe the guidance. This is a gift to longs, I don't think people should be disappointed or angry about it.

I would guess that the stock dropped today because investors are considering the effect of a couple billion in equity dilution. Selling a bunch of M3's was already priced in. Is accelerating a year of production work a couple of billion?

I'm thinking of getting back in at the current price, but like many people I'm still trying to wrap my mind around the idea of Tesla building the amount of cars Musk is planning. I'm also trying to figure out how I feel about Musk's lack of candor on the gigafactory.
 
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I know it's not really my place to say, given how new I am, but this is the Short-Term price movement thread. I don't think there's anyone who doubts that tesla will grow huge in the coming years, but it's understandable how people would feel it'll be rough for Tesla in the coming weeks/months.

It sure is your place to chime in! It is an open forum. You are correct this is the short term thread but it has evolved into the place where it seems we all meet to discuss anything that might affect the share price.

As to whether it will be rough for Tesla (and by proxy TSLA) in the coming months the long term guidance released does affect the short term price.

IMO, the SP would be accelerating because of a short squeeze IF TM/EM had met production/delivery guidance (or beat it) over the past two years. So, the short term price movement comes down to this: Do you believe that TM/EM can execute this ambitious plan OR not?
 
I'm showing max pain at $230 for tomorrow's expiration. Anybody have thoughts on whether that may provide some short-term buttressing of share price?

Max Pain, when it works, usually is on days with low volume so it is easier to manipulate the SP. I expect tomorrow will be high volume...so my WAG is NO.
 
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Well, I had to sleep through the ER so It has been a long day slogging through the commentary.

I am confused and furious about how they handled this ER. They aren't playing by any sensible playbook. Why, why announce ambitious expansion plans when you are struggling/failing to meet much more modest goals, and before you have done the cap raise. Here is what the street heard:

* FINANCIALS BAD
* TESLA NEEDS MONEY


They could have kept their timetable quiet for another quarter, kept to their game plan, had a blowout quarter, done a cap raise and then built shiny factories and supplier agreements. Instead we got a greatest hits of things Tesla should NOT do:

1) Renege on promises of prudent cash management in 2016

2) PULL IN Model 3 deadlines and EXPAND the volume. Even FANS of TM broadly discounted their ramp plans along the lines of "they will do it, just a little later than the plan". Doing this just sounds dumb. TM has zero history of even making goals, why publicly pull them in? Then why ANNOUNCE PUBLICLY your internal stretch goal of July 2017? This goes to my theory that Elon has no concept of an internal goal and an external goal. That is not clever, or admirable. If you can do X, guide for 0.9*X, not 1.1*X but Elon just cannot help himself. The output is always "X" but by guiding for 1.1X everything is a "failure".

3) say you are going to go spending more before you have financing. Last quarter they played it perfectly: Say they were going to self-finance and not need financing. That way they have options. Rule #1 of doing a capital raise is to NOT NEED MONEY.

4) Zev sales in Q1... come on, that could be pushed to later.


Ugh, so very very dumb. All they had to do was NOTHING. Keep these new plans quiet. Keep capital plans quiet. Reaffirm everything. Do good work in Q2. simple.

This does give valuable insight: Truly, Elon is just trying to get as many cars on the road as fast as possible. The fully fleshed out DTU theory had that Elon was planning on helping the stock up later in the year to do a cap raise. But, now it seems clear that he just wants to spend asap and gear up as fast as possible and damn the torpedoes. So the conspiracy theory fails on that account. Instead, it turns out Elon wanted to publicly speed up the goal and timetable to put pressure on suppliers. No other reason comes close to explaining it.

DTU trade problem. It's now unclear when "up" will be. The idea was that it would be either the Q2 or Q3 ER. But now it could actually be WHEN MODEL 3 SALES ARE ACCRETIVE. It is all pain and spending between now and then. Investors might as well hang out on the sideline for a year waiting for a more obvious entry.

SILVER LINING: DTU might still be in play despite Elon clearly not trying to help us. The pure dumbness of this ER might well spark a retest of 180 or god forbid 150, then we can assess the possibility that Q2 or Q3 will be financially great in spite of increased model 3 spending. That could spark a rally just as potent, if not more so than the original thesis. I had originally called for EM to "tank" this ER to send the stock into a tailspin, so maybe I am getting my wish, with dumbness instead of financials.

Edit: For the record, I am not sore from losing money, I lost a very small amount (stock + puts) just annoyed of the missed opportunities here.
While I agree the exact time (like the July 1 2017) would be better held off from a public ER CC, they would need to spend a lot of time talking about change of plans given the high reservation numbers regardless. Stating it outright in the letter and explaining it better in the CC is not that dumb. Note that EM spent quite some time explaining how design-engineering-manufacture are linked tighter and stressing the Model 3 is designed to be easily manufactured. He also said the drivetrain is basically completed and design would be too in two months.

However, I think the expansion plan could have been explained better on several fronts regarding to scale up production, especially in face of news about two VP overseeing this department leaving on the exact same day (BTW IMO this could be a planned news attack on the stock. I suspect at least one of the two VPs was not with the company for at least a few weeks already and EM brought his sleeping bag since. Given Greg is still waiting for replacement, I think it was the other taking the fall for the slow ramp and quality issues. Note that Tesla/EM did not thank him like they thanked Greg). For example, when asked about how GF can keep up with their new plan, they (EM and JB) were quite vague, basically just saying "no problem" when asked. I understand some information are confidential. But it does give people a sense of doubt for now.

It increases people's doubt when you give internal targets, but refuse to shed more light on several main factors on how the internal targets may be reached.
 
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Well, I had to sleep through the ER so It has been a long day slogging through the commentary.

I am confused and furious about how they handled this ER. They aren't playing by any sensible playbook. Why, why announce ambitious expansion plans when you are struggling/failing to meet much more modest goals, and before you have done the cap raise. Here is what the street heard:

* FINANCIALS BAD
* TESLA NEEDS MONEY


They could have kept their timetable quiet for another quarter, kept to their game plan, had a blowout quarter, done a cap raise and then built shiny factories and supplier agreements. Instead we got a greatest hits of things Tesla should NOT do:

1) Renege on promises of prudent cash management in 2016

2) PULL IN Model 3 deadlines and EXPAND the volume. Even FANS of TM broadly discounted their ramp plans along the lines of "they will do it, just a little later than the plan". Doing this just sounds dumb. TM has zero history of even making goals, why publicly pull them in? Then why ANNOUNCE PUBLICLY your internal stretch goal of July 2017? This goes to my theory that Elon has no concept of an internal goal and an external goal. That is not clever, or admirable. If you can do X, guide for 0.9*X, not 1.1*X but Elon just cannot help himself. The output is always "X" but by guiding for 1.1X everything is a "failure".

3) say you are going to go spending more before you have financing. Last quarter they played it perfectly: Say they were going to self-finance and not need financing. That way they have options. Rule #1 of doing a capital raise is to NOT NEED MONEY.

4) Zev sales in Q1... come on, that could be pushed to later.


Ugh, so very very dumb. All they had to do was NOTHING. Keep these new plans quiet. Keep capital plans quiet. Reaffirm everything. Do good work in Q2. simple.

This does give valuable insight: Truly, Elon is just trying to get as many cars on the road as fast as possible. The fully fleshed out DTU theory had that Elon was planning on helping the stock up later in the year to do a cap raise. But, now it seems clear that he just wants to spend asap and gear up as fast as possible and damn the torpedoes. So the conspiracy theory fails on that account. Instead, it turns out Elon wanted to publicly speed up the goal and timetable to put pressure on suppliers. No other reason comes close to explaining it.

DTU trade problem. It's now unclear when "up" will be. The idea was that it would be either the Q2 or Q3 ER. But now it could actually be WHEN MODEL 3 SALES ARE ACCRETIVE. It is all pain and spending between now and then. Investors might as well hang out on the sideline for a year waiting for a more obvious entry.

SILVER LINING: DTU might still be in play despite Elon clearly not trying to help us. The pure dumbness of this ER might well spark a retest of 180 or god forbid 150, then we can assess the possibility that Q2 or Q3 will be financially great in spite of increased model 3 spending. That could spark a rally just as potent, if not more so than the original thesis. I had originally called for EM to "tank" this ER to send the stock into a tailspin, so maybe I am getting my wish, with dumbness instead of financials.

Edit: For the record, I am not sore from losing money, I lost a very small amount (stock + puts) just annoyed of the missed opportunities here.

Thanks for the thoughtful post. One reason for not being on the sideline for the next year is that we really don't know how/when the stock will move up (or down). Sometimes it takes just one buyer and the stock goes on a long run. Example, imagine if Carl Icahn (or somebody similar) bought up $3 billion worth of TSLA stock on the open market. We would probably see the stock price rising but nobody would really know why. Then, he announces his position (of course after he finished buying), saying he owns 10% of Tesla and he has a price target of $500. That would scare a lot of shorts and would boost the stock a lot.
 
You make a fair point as a generality. Yet this is the short term TSLA price movements thread. Much more specific context (TSLA).

TSLA options on Model 3 ramp are not a generality. Take this option at $180-200. Don't screw up your bit of the M3 ramp. You just won the difference between $180-$200 and $500-600 times leverage. If you are late with your windscreen wipers, poof, half of your huge bonus pay day disappears, maybe all of it, plus you will probably never work again because you screwed up payday across 300 supplier campuses.

This is not a generally applicable concept. It is absolutely applicable to TSLA options and the cheapest and most powerful thing Musk could apply a little bit of equity to.

Do you get it? If not I give up. Dear wall. My name is Julian. I have been telling these people about this company and where the shares are heading. Then the shares do exactly what I say they will, over and over and over and over again without fail - trade long throught this don't trade long through that buy here sell there until the only possible way to lose money on TSLA this year is to disagree with what I have said in the slightest! And yet some of them don't think I know what I am talking about, which despite logical argument for people to check for themselves and a 100% flawless track record is really quite strange, what do you think wall?........ Julian you are talking to a wall therefore you are an idiot QED. Ah.

Yes, I get it, but you have to accept that I very likely know a lot more about equity compensation than you do and things aren't as simple as you want them to be. I agree with your concept generally but it would be much better employed by the use of cash - give extra cash for meeting goals X, Y and Z. I will list out the problems with using options below. Feel free to continue to ignore if you wish.

1. The Plan likely does not allow for this to occur currently, unless the language is read in an extremely tortured manner.
2. The Plan cannot be amended before approximately May 2017, when shareholders vote at the 2017 Annual Meeting, short of calling a special shareholders meeting. This will never happen.
3. Shareholders must vote to approve the expansion of eligibility in the Plan. As I've noted, shareholders are generally against options and especially against using it outside the employee base (even options to directors are frowned upon). Might have an uphill battle there.
4. Options must be granted at or out of the money, otherwise Code Section 409A is violated. This is a constraint as it guarantees that the grant does not have intrinsic value when it occurs.
5. Options without intrinsic value are not very attractive to employees of third party manufacturers. They do not have the ability to drive the stock price in any meaningful way, so they feel like a possibility of being in the money is luck. This is why options are reserved for top management, if it all.
6. If the price sinks after grant, they no longer provide a meaningful incentive at all. Repriced options are out of the question as just about every plan forbids this short of getting shareholder approval. I can't tell you how many companies arrive at this predicament then switch to big RSU retention grants to keep execs from leaving bc everything is underwater. This would be quite magnified for a supplier. They have no loyalty or ties to Tesla to keep them producing - only the prospect of making a buck. Also, all of these grants are very expensive to the company.
7. Accounting issues, as I've noted.
8. Extreme administrative complexity. It's bad enough administering equity plans for actual employees, departed employees and directors (ask me how I know) - I can't even imagine adding in multiple employees from 100+ third-party suppliers or whatever. They don't know proper company procedures, interactions with brokers and the transfer agent would be a mess, etc. Options generally have a term of 10 years. Can you imagine following all these non-connected individuals around for 10 years tracking their options?
9. This would be very unusual and would receive a spotlight from numerous angles. Shareholder advisory groups (e.g., ISS and Glass-Lewis) would be very angry and probably recommend shareholders vote down the pay packages for execs and recommend against the plan amendment, etc. Ultimately maybe not a huge impact but definitely negative publicity.
10. You may disagree, but options are often reserved for companies in financial distress - particularly when extended to suppliers. This would not be well-received in the market in my opinion.
11. Maybe most importantly, there's no good way to claw these back. You could try and draft it to only have them vest upon certain milestones, but what if they fail their duties after vesting in some options? How do you get them back? You emphatically cannot just take them back - any adverse change in the award agreement language with respect to vested options cannot be effectuated without written agreement between the recipient and Tesla. Employee options often expire some short period after termination to avoid them holding on to them for 10 years. Can't do that with these options. Once they vest, that's it - unless you could get them to agree to some weird language about forfeiture if the supplier relationship ends or something. Anyone with a brain wouldn't sign something like that.

I could think of more problems but getting tired of typing. Back to regularly scheduled short term thread.
 
I would guess that the stock dropped today because investors are considering the effect of a couple billion in equity dilution.

As I have pointed out numerous times, including this from my post earlier today:

If new shares are issued, the incoming cash becomes the shared property of all shareholders. Dilution by itself is essentially neutral and not the negative that many fear. That received cash will be put to work to accelerate production capabilities to meet Model 3 demand. The benefits from hastening and expanding production should far exceed what fixed income investments are paying.

To paraphrase the way someone else put it in another thread today, "The pie becomes bigger, but your unchanged slice is now a smaller percentage of a more productive pie, although the same size slice as it was before."
 
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Consider that Musk may be accelerating plans due to 1) Changing competitive conditions, and 2) Faster than anticipated battery improvements by Tesla as well as competitors.

Because Musk has been the driver of both the EV and battery market, to date he has largely set the pace. But what might Musk be seeing today when he looks at the EV market at the end of the decade? Battle plans are fine, But sometimes the attack has to be launch early. I don't think Musk just woke up one morning a couple of weeks ago and decided that it would be cool to build 40,000 cars a month by the end of 2018.

I also don't think Musk would announce these plans if had not already set the groundwork for raising more debt and equity. For me the awkwardness in the ER was lack of a coherent explanation of the gigafactory. Musk really doesn't want to talk battery right now. But he is the one who sold everyone on the synchronicity between the gigafactory and the model 3. I don't think he is hiding anything bad, but that he doesn't want to "show his hand".
 
I know it's not really my place to say, given how new I am, but this is the Short-Term price movement thread. I don't think there's anyone who doubts that tesla will grow huge in the coming years, but it's understandable how people would feel it'll be rough for Tesla in the coming weeks/months.

Hello and welcome. Anyone interested in knowing what to do next?

Answer: On the assumption that a raise is imminent. Probably should buy alongside that raise whenever that is at whatever price assuming no unforeseen thing makes it an ATH. At this rate it would coincide with a local bottom.

More refined answer. If there is any way of figuring out for real when it is before it happens while the stock is low, probably should buy that instead.

Subtext: Something is odd here. Patrick Archambault's trash piece "research note" possibly suggests that GS has been snubbed for participation in a fundraiser. This possibly indicates some less traditional funding maneuver is on Tesla's mind or possibly it means nothing at all and that occasionally Chinese Walls between analysts and the rest of an investment bank actually function - OK that really would be too far fetched to take seriously. Possibly it means that a fundraiser is not imminent - which would blow out the first assumption above.

That would seem about right.
 
As I have pointed out numerous times, including this from my post earlier today:

If new shares are issued, the incoming cash becomes the shared property of all shareholders. Dilution by itself is essentially neutral and not the negative that many fear. That received cash will be put to work to accelerate production capabilities to meet Model 3 demand. The benefits from hastening and expanding production should far exceed what fixed income investments are paying.

To paraphrase the way someone else put it in another thread today, you get a bigger pie but your unchanged slice is now a smaller percentage of the pie but the same size as it was before.

Yeah, that's how you get huge growth multiples. Funding growth by equity sale instead of revenue.
 
The stock drops 5% and it turns into SeekingAlpha around here.

Everyone second-guessing Elon and knowing exactly what he should do to maximize the share price, so confident in their assertions despite having orders of magnitude less information than Elon has about the company and its situation. It's his job to guide the company for long-term success, not to compromise the company in order to avoid doing anything that might feed the bear narrative.

The stock price fell today despite a huge value increase to the company, if you believe the guidance. This is a gift to longs, I don't think people should be disappointed or angry about it.
Couldn't agree more. The only difference in what the thread expected (price drop) and what actually happened is that Tesla promised way larger gains when the up happens.
So many were bummed when they saw the 500k by 2018, my only thought was that it may be dangerous to be so erect. Jk for emphasis :)
 
Hello and welcome. Anyone interested in knowing what to do next?

Answer: On the assumption that a raise is imminent. Probably should buy alongside that raise whenever that is at whatever price assuming no unforeseen thing makes it an ATH. At this rate it would coincide with a local bottom.

More refined answer. If there is any way of figuring out for real when it is before it happens while the stock is low, probably should buy that instead.

Subtext: Something is odd here. Patrick Archambault's trash piece "research note" possibly suggests that GS has been snubbed for participation in a fundraiser. This possibly indicates some less traditional funding maneuver is on Tesla's mind or possibly it means nothing at all and that occasionally Chinese Walls between analysts and the rest of an investment bank actually function - OK that really would be too far fetched to take seriously. Possibly it means that a fundraiser is not imminent - which would blow out the first assumption above.

That would seem about right.

I agree, after reading that very crass piece of analysis, my first thought was that GS somehow got passed over as main underwriter for an impeding raise.
 
I know it's not really my place to say, given how new I am, but this is the Short-Term price movement thread. I don't think there's anyone who doubts that tesla will grow huge in the coming years, but it's understandable how people would feel it'll be rough for Tesla in the coming weeks/months.
Part of the reason many here don't mind is that many of us made short term sells, went to cash, bought puts, or otherwise planned on a decline. To us, this decline is even better and faster than expected.
 
So you'd recommend waiting (potentially months) for it to reclaim $220s?
Sort of. I'd recommend waiting, likely a few months for it to reclaim 265. Then, I likely only sell a few percent of it to capture the gains.

I also recommend buying at 200 and below, even the current 210 is wonderful, but I don't have quite as much dry powder as I'd like, so I'm hanging on for 200/180/160 for my tranches.
 
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Until yesterday the concern argued by bears was that the 2020 goal of 500,000 could not be met. Now that it has become a 2018 goal they are arguing that that cannot be met. But that new goal was not made public until after the market close yesterday and had not been factored into the share price. It's not as though before today the share price was inflated by that new goal. It now appears that the previous 2020 goal is easily achievable. In fact yesterday Elon estimated a million deliveries in 2020. If the share price is down today due to concern about meeting the 2018 goal, then traders are not behaving rationally and appear to be presenting investors with an opportune bargain.
I agree, but it seems even more irrational to me. Investors seem to be behaving as though the new goals are a negative. Definitely an opportunity (that could get even better soon).

In recent minutes this longtime holder of Tesla shares did something he has never done before. He bought LEAP call options.
I'm planning to do the same thing (more LEAPS, something like J28 300's). Trying to predict in the short-medium term, when sanity will return is too difficult for me. Would you mind sharing which LEAPS you bought, J18's (?) and the strike prices? Do you have an exit strategy?
 
Yeah, that's how you get huge growth multiples. Funding growth by equity sale instead of revenue.

To grow at the rate necessary to meet Model 3 demand and outpace competition, counting on revenues alone is insufficient. If the company only intends to grow at a pace commensurate with current revenues, then indeed the shares are priced too high. Instead the shares are priced at a level that at least partially assumes the possibility of the rapid growth needed to disrupt established companies in capital intensive industries. That requires bravado and brains, both of which Elon Musk and his team seem to have in abundance.
 
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