Yuri_G
Member
And invest with a more long-term strategy. It is extremely difficult to make money trading a stock like TSLA short term. This is magnified 10 times if you're trading options short term.
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And invest with a more long-term strategy. It is extremely difficult to make money trading a stock like TSLA short term. This is magnified 10 times if you're trading options short term.
You need to either decide to stay in for the long haul, or stop looking at the minute by minute fluctuations of TSLA. This is a Volatile stock with a high beta so, if you cannot stomach sudden change on a whim, I suggest you get out. If you are a long term hold of at least 2 years, then shut your computer off and enjoy your life. Your constant posts of worry does not help this forum, or your well-being.
dmckinstry
Model X 2019
Remember also. Most gas stations have a lot more profit from their convenience store sales that from gas sales.
roblab
Active Member
I tell my wife this every day. She has to look. And then it's, "OH BOY!" or, "OH NO!". Every day. I keep telling her that when she looks it makes the stock go down. We're long, so it makes absolutely no difference if she looks or not, but it's like a drug, I think.
roblab
Active Member
Not from me, Dave! We drive on down the road and pick up a Subway next to the Superchargers. Now, THAT's convenience..
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
dmckinstry
Model X 2019
Hey. I'm looking everyday too. But I only sell when the IRS makes me sell. (Minimum Distribution). I jinxed the current run up when I told my wife the other day that we'd gained ~$20 in the past three or four days.
dmckinstry
Model X 2019
Not from me, Dave! We drive on down the road and pick up a Subway next to the Superchargers. Now, THAT's convenience..
Right. But we walk, or walk the dogs, etc..
I got to congratulate you on having courage to get in on that. I hope you profited. I didn't buy such lottery ticket though. Would've been nice if I did.
For those who are hurting from the stock drop, sorry, but it's just how things happen with the market. You'll be in for the long haul to recover for profit unless there's deviation from such bunkering down, good luck with your choices. The next best thing is looking forward to the Q1 ER. But I'm afraid that it isn't going to do much for the stock. I'm guessing like others have said, perhaps Q2 ER and beyond is something that may move the stock even more.
Runarbt
Active Member
Damn, $250 close and right on max-pain? well, good to be done with it. Hope stabilize here, condolidate a while and the rise on news, ER, guidance and possible non-gaap positive. (To early for gaap positive, even with reserve money- they do count?)
well, good to be done with it. Hope stabilize here, condolidate a while and the rise on news, ER, guidance and possible non-gaap positive. (To early for gaap positive, even with reserve money- they do count?)You basically got it I think. If this was a chess game. Having set up this play Tesla's opponent is in Check. There is no legitimate move on the board for the opponent where Tesla's next move does not put the opponent back in check until the eventual Check Mate or the opponent topples his own King (by joining Tesla in making EVs with better value and lower cost than its own ICE production lines can achieve).
There is one illegitimate move on the board and that's it. The opponent can bribe the umpire to change the rules of the game. However the opponent does not have a semblance of a case to bribe the umpire until he can complain that he's losing badly and by the time he's ready to admit to that, the crowd will have known it for ages and turn on both the opponent and the umpire.
From now on in Tesla either needs to make an unforced error or the bribe to the umpire is unprecedented. I don't think it is actually possible in Western society unless Tesla commits the unforced error of bragging about causing damage rather than continually welcoming competition and permitting the opponent to use his own denial against himself. Which is why I am very happy if the reservation data reveal has now stopped.
@esk8mw
No, I disagree, financial management is not a significant risk factor in the absence of unforced error. Tesla is not obliged in any way to risk overspending its available resources in order to win the game. The customers will wait and there is no competitive threat. This is counter-intuitive, I know because it is an extremely unusual situation in manufacturing and maybe completely unprecedented - except that it isn't. In the auto industry one would have to check back approximately a hundred years. Consumers were keen to abandon the expense and hassle associated with the maintenance and running cost of horses and placed demand pressure on Franchised Dealers vastly exceeding the capacity of Ford to supply - and the dealers cash flowed Ford's growth (which is why they have a valid claim established in law not to be cut out of the loop by Ford once Ford had done growing on their cash - and why they don't have the same claim in the absence of corruption on Tesla because Tesla has never taken a penny from a dealer to promote its brand or grow any part of its operation including its retail business).
Most importantly when looking at the precedents here. There was no pressure on Henry Ford to speculate resources on capturing uncertain demand just as Tesla now is under no such pressure to do so now. The key difference is that Tesla has been willing to leverage surety of demand rather than to become indebted to an inefficient sales and service model that can later enforce an essentially terminal conflict of interest. It is no possible for any OEM to build or operate a business that can compete with Tesla with dealership intermediaries demanding service rent or margins to compensate whenever service rent is lacking.
Just like ICE at the dawn of the Tesla-led EV era. Horses were not going to suddenly stage a come-back and stop needing stable yard operators to maintain them daily and fields of grazing land to refuel them and expensive highway inns for mid journey maintenance and fuelling or to act as even more expensive horse swap stations if you happened to be in a hurry.
Just as then so it is now. Consumers rapidly got the idea that a Model T while it represented greater up-front cost than the sticker price on the most affordable horses, it more than made up for it in welcome new features that a horse could not offer while compromising only a few features that were not particularly useful - like self-replicating and the ability to jump a fence. The most important feature was that the running cost of horses just overwhelmed the up-front sticker price of the car for a better total cost of ownership. Plus you got a nice car to drive for your money rather than splitting your money between the capital value of the horse and excessively so to the favor of load of unscrupulous horse dealers, horse maintenance laborers and horse-fuel retailers while public sensitivity increased to the uncivilized environmental waste products left behind via the horse's tail pipe. It has just taken a while to figure out swapping one tail pipe emitting megatons of visible semi-solid noxious biomas for another emitting megatons semi-visible gaseous noxious fumes of is not actually a complete victory condition for civilization self evident to anyone living in a city which is basically where much of civilization resides.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
When people start to get nervous, I think it is helpful to remember the general principle that "fear of loss is felt 2x as much as happiness from gain". This is why many investors at the retail level tend to buy high and sell low, which is exactly the opposite of what they should be doing.
I am not expecting much movement from Q1 results. What I am watching is Model X production, delivery, and quality levels from now through June. That is what will possibly drive Q2 numbers and possibly set up some stellar financial results. In general, my sense is that expectations can drive stock prices up, but it's execution that keeps the stock at higher levels.
I read the Model X sub-forums here every day.
stef
Member
I watched again the unveil (mostly for the pleasure of it ) and the slide behind Elon was clearly stating "supercharging CAPABILITY". Although some could argue that Elon didn't make this point explicit, he never claimed "free supercharging", so it seems pretty clear they are just rephrasing that point to avoid confusion. And that free supercharging will not be on the base model (which I completely agree with, as shareholder and 2x M3 reservation holder)
Do you know when X deliveries to China begin? SUV demand is apparently high and growing in that region
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
I don't know. I haven't any indication from the Model X forums that international deliveries have begun or will soon begin.
We have speculated a number of times about such halos, but the evidience is weak. (Good thing, sometimes bad things happen with rockets)
The land-based soft touchdown, on the tsla chart:
(the arrow points to the day it happened after the business day.) So the next 2 days stock traded a tiny bit higher maybe.
And here is a "bad" halo, the dragon explosion:
So it did trade a bit lower the next day, but the effect of either was short lived and maybe a coincidence.
Falcon 9 just stuck the landing *at sea*.
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